Pigeon Picks | Vol. 1, No. 3

At Football Behavior, we use the preseason to gather information and to build behavioral profiles of who these teams are. When we get to see starters in action, it goes a long way to helping us with our predictions.

There were 4 teams in particular that played their presumptive starting quarterback, who stuck out in this first week of the preseason. Two of of those teams face off in Week 1, leading to yet another Pigeon Pick, our 3rd of 2023.

Let’s get into it.

Jags @ Colts Comes Into Focus

Both teams started their preseason matchups with their starters on the field. That was especially helpful to us due to the quarterbacks playing. Trevor Lawrence took the field for three drives against the Dallas Cowboys. For the Colts, Anthony Richardson took the field for three drives against the Bills.

Jaguars Met Expectations

The Jaguars possessed the ball for 6 minutes and 27 seconds combined on those drives and produced a total of 8 points (1 touchdown and 2-point conversion). At that point, Lawrence came out of the game. But those 6 minutes and 27 seconds gave us an interesting bit of information.

That equated to a scoring behavior (SBx) of about 1.1 points per minute of possession time. In a raw projection, based on 2022 behavioral profiling, on August 12th, 2023, the Jaguars were projected to have an SBx of…

1.1 points per minute of possession time.

The dotted line shows the predictive trend the Pigeon Picks model calculated for August 12th, 2023.

And here is what the Jaguars actually did on August 12th. The black dot is the recorded SBx.

The combination of the Jaguars carrying over their same performance environment from 2022 helped us predict their likely scoring behavior. However, we did only see 6 minutes and 27 seconds. If this had been a full game, it is unclear how it could have played out.

But, that our prediction was in line with what actually played out is very encouraging for us understanding how the Jaguars will behave in 2023.

Colts To Move Methodically?

As for the Colts, we got to see 27 plays of the Anthony Richardson-led Colts offense. It produced zero points. They had a chance for three points at the tail end of a 14 play drive, but the field goal went wide left.

We saw what should be expected from a rookie. We saw a glaringly bad decision that resulted in an interception. We also saw glimmers of the play making ability that led the Colts to draft Richardson in the first place.

The final drive for them was perhaps the most interesting. 14 plays over 83 yards resulting in a field goal opportunity. The drive lasted 5 minutes and 51 seconds of possession time. Even if we assumed the field goal went through and they did get the three points (Matt Gay has an 88% career field goal percentage), that would be an SBx of 0.52 points per minute of possession time.

While that is a massive improvement on 2022’s 0.409 SBx, it is still almost half the pace of the Jaguars.

Oh, and by the way, the hypothetical 0.52 SBx was only for that one drive. They had two other drives combining for 13 plays, 6 minutes and 14 seconds of possession time. So hypothetically, with the missed field goal becoming a made field goal, were looking at a hypothetical 3 points over 12 minutes and five seconds.

That would be an SBx of 0.25 points per minute of possession time. Yeesh.

Ultimately, we project the Colts to be better than last year. Anthony Richardson is going to have his growing pains though, and by the looks of things, points are going to come in a more methodical fashion.

Consider this, the Colts had three drives that ended in scoring opportunities. Each one with a different quarterback under center (Richardson, Minshew, Ehlinger). Two of those drives were double digit play amounts, and each taking more than 4 minutes of possession time (4:22, 5:51).

Being methodical and sustaining long drives is all well and good. But you better end those drives with touchdowns. Every time one ends in a field goal, or without points at all, that’s a win for the defense. With a rookie at quarterback, we could see a healthy mix of long drives with low scoring behavior and quick three and outs.

Pigeon Pick Prediction

Pigeon Pick 🕊️💸: Jags -3.5

Right now the spread in this Week 1 matchup between these two teams sees the Jaguars favored by 3.5 points. We think that probably is not enough and that there is value in grabbing the Jaguars now while the spread is that narrow.

The Jaguars look to be picking up where they left off in 2022, and the Colts seem to be as well in terms of pure scoring behavior. What will be key for us to examine in Week 2 of the preseason is if the Colts continue to take double digit play amounts on scoring drives. A lower paced offense that lacks efficiency is a one way ticket to struggle town.

The 3.5 favoring the Jaguars is good value to jump on against the spread. The Pigeon Picks model is in for a unit at that number. We expect that spread to widen a bit once we get closer to the season. Get the value while you can!

Pigeon Picks subscribers will get the official final score projection for this game, and every game, heading into Week 1, along with updated behavioral profiles for each and every team, including an update of the risk assessments for each game. Upgrade today so you don’t miss out! Pigeon Picks could pay for itself Week 1!

Saints Look Like NFC South Favorites

The Saints gave us a taste of what a their new quarterback could mean for their team behavior in 2023.

We got to see Derek Carr open the preseason game against the Chiefs starting for the Saints, and it looked like everything we though it might. Opening drive of 12 plays, 5 minutes and 24 seconds ending in a touchdown against the Chiefs starters.

We surmised in our very first team reports newsletter highlighting the NFC South that the Saints “were a competent quarterback away from possibly winning the NFC South in 2022.” We also surmised that Carr was said competent quarterback.

Nothing we saw in preseason action has convinced us otherwise as going 6/8 for 70 yards and a touchdown is a great start.

Kenny Pickett Makes Pigeon Picks Look Good

Likewise, in our AFC North Team Reports, we highlighted the promise of Kenny Pickett and his ability to improve. Here are some of the numbers we highlighted in that report:

• Kenny Pickett made his first four starts before the bye week

  • The Steelers had an SBx of 0.292

  • 0.292 would have ranked as the worst offense in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

• Kenny Pickett started 7 of 9 games after the bye week

  • The Steelers had an SBx of 0.642

  • 0.642 would have ranked 16th in the NFL if carried out for 17 games

  • 0.642 was a 120% improvement from before the bye week

Following his 120% improvement in SBx from his first four starts, he seemed to pick up where he left off in preseason action. Inside of a 10 play, 83 yard drive that took 5 minutes and 14 seconds, Pickett went 6/7 for 70 yards and a touchdown.

You never want to make too much out of the preseason, but that mostly holds true for when you’re seeing something for the first time. In the case of Pickett, however, we could be seeing a continuation of the development we saw last offseason. There is a reason they ranked as our 2nd most valuable sleeper for 2023.

Here’s what we said in that newsletter:

Don’t forget, Pigeon Pick subscribers will get all of this for every single team each and every week. It is only way to get the full potential of the prediction model that beat the books 67% of the time with an ROI of 91%*

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