NFC South Team Reports:

The 2023 NFL season is just a few months away. Every one of the 32 NFL teams is hoping to improve upon last season. To move forward, you have to know where you have been. Our future behavior is in large part influenced by our historical behavior.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are riding with quarterback Desmond Ridder in 2023. Will that affect their status and NFL’s safest team to bet on?

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• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

Atlanta Falcons Offensive Rankings

The Atlanta Falcons, even though they were getting worse week over week, were extremely consistent in 2022. Below shows their trend, start to finish, and how the move to Desmond Ridder late in the season impacted their Scoring Behavior (SBx).

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means a defense was getting better

  • Trending up means a defense was getting worse.
    

Desmond Ridder Brought Inconsistency: Bounce Rate

The Atlanta Falcons making a switch to Desmond Ridder was not a surprise based on the direction they were trending. But that move made them less consistent:

• In the first 13 games started by Marcus Mariota, the Falcons had a bounce rate x2, firmly in the “Safe Bet” zone.

• In the final four games, started by Desmond Ridder, their consistency regressed by 25% to x2.5, into the “Proceed with Caution” zone.

Ridder also didn’t make them better: SBx Rate

The Falcons SBx Rate:

• Got worse on average during the four games Ridder started.

  • In 13 games with Marcus Mariota as the starter, the Falcons offense had a 0.734 SBx average, which was regressing by 18% week over week.

  • In the final four games started by Desmond Ridder, their average SBx regressed by 26.5% to 0.54 points per minute of possession time.

Atlanta Falcons Defensive Ranking

The Falcons defense showed signs of improvement as the season went on, and could be a bright spot for the team in 2023.

Falcons Defense Was Consistently Improving: Bounce Rate

The Falcons defense was the most consistent in the league and rated as a”Safe Bet”:

• Bounce rate of x1.9 was well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

• The Falcons had three outlier performances in the first half of the season.

  • Week 6 they had their best Score Prevention Behavior performance with an SPBx of 0.4 against the Jimmy Garappolo-led 49ers.

  • The very next week in Week 7 they had their worst SPBx performance with an SPBx of 1.15 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

  • In Week 8 they had a slightly better SPBx of 1.1 against the Carolina Panthers.

• With those three outliers removed, their bounce rate was an even better x1.4, a 26% improvement.

The Falcons Defense Got Better As The Season Went On: SPBx

The Falcons SPBx Rate:

• Saw a 7% improvement week over week as the season went on.

• If removing the three outliers from Weeks six through eight, their average SPBx went from 0.723 to 0.7, a 3.5% improvement.

Atlanta Falcons 2023 Outlook

The Falcons 2023 success rests on the arm of Desmond Ridder. The defense looks poised to continue their improvement, but can Ridder provide consistency on offense to keep up?

• Ridder’s four 2022 starts as a rookie should not be seen as a definitive roadmap as to what his start to 2023 will look like. The offense will get a “Proceed with Caution” rating to start the season as we get a sense for who Ridder is.

• Can the defense keep getting better?

  • For betting purposes, getting better isn’t necessarily important as long as they remain consistent, which they were in 2022.

  • The second half of the 2022 season they had a 0.674 SPBx, which was a 14% improvement from the first half of the season. That would have been a top half of the league ranking.

• The defense remains a “Safe Bet” entering 2023.

Carolina Panthers Team Report

The Carolina Panthers had a chaotic year in 2022, and still almost walked away with the NFC South division. Will the new changes force them to take a step back?

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• Final score predictions for every game

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Carolina Panthers Offensive Ranking

The Carolina Panthers went through three quarterbacks in 2022. They were nothing if not consistent. Below shows their trend, start to finish, and how the move to Desmond Ridder late in the season impacted their Scoring Behavior (SBx).

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means a defense was getting better

  • Trending up means a defense was getting worse.

The Carolina Panthers Were A Safe Bet: Bounce Rate

The Carolina Panthers started Baker Mayfield, PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold in 2022. Each were consistent, but the latter two were a clear upgrade from Mayfield:

• Overall from start to finish the Panthers had a pretty consistent offense in terms of Scoring Behavior (SBx), except for three clear outliers:

  • Week six they had an SBx of 0.4

  • Week 11 they had an SBx of 0.11

  • Week 18 they had an SBx of 0.3

• Removing the outliers gave them a total bounce rate of x1.8, which would have been the most consistent offense in the NFL and well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

• In the first five games started by Baker Mayfield they had a bounce rate of x1.5

• In the remaining games started by PJ Walker and Sam Darnold, they had a bounce rate of x1.6, a slight 7% regression.

• Including the three outliers, their bounce rate was x3.6.

Moving On From Mayfield Made Sense: SBx Rate

The Panthers SBx Rate:

• Was trending in the wrong direction in five games with Baker Mayfield.

  • Week over week, the Panthers saw a 38% regression in scoring behavior through five games with Baker Mayfield.

• PJ Walker’s two outliers hurt him.

  • In two out of six games started by Walker, the offense had an SBx of 0.1 and 0.4.

  • The four games were all above 0.7 SBx, with two of them above 0.9 SBx.

• Sam Darnold was the best of the three, until when they needed him most.

  • Five out of six games were above 0.7 SBx

  • Four out of six were above 0.8 Sbx

  • Two out of six were 0.9 Sbx.

  • Final game was an outlier of 0.3 SBx.

Carolina Panthers Defensive Ranking

The Panthers defense had a good average Score Prevention Behavior rate, but was wildly inconsistent week to week.

Panthers Defense Was Not Safe To Bet On: Bounce Rate

The Panthers defense was the fourth most inconsistent in the league and rated as ”Stay Away”:

• Bounce rate of x4.3 was well within the “Stay Away” zone.

• The Panthers were all over the place on defense.

  • They had nine games of 0.8 SPBx or higher

  • They had three games between 0.5 and 0.7 SPBx

  • They had four games of 0.4 SPBx or lower

The Panthers Defense Barely Got Better As The Season Went On: SPBx

The Panthers SPBx Rate:

• Saw a slight 4% improvement week over week as the season went on.

• If removing the two outliers from Week 7 and Week 18, their average SPBx went from 0.609 to 0.731, a 20% regression.

Carolina Panthers 2023 Outlook

The Panthers 2023 success rests on the success of the massive changes they have made from 2022.

• Selected Bryce Young number one overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.

• Frank Reich is the new head coach following his firing in Indianapolis.

• Ejiro Evero is the new defensive coordinator.

Anytime there are many significant environmental changes, you have to wait and see how they play out. There is nothing worse than betting on the complete unknown.

The Carolina Panthers have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

New Orleans Saints Team Report

The New Orleans Saints were a competent quarterback away from possibly winning the NFC South in 2022. What is Derek Carr walking into?

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• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

New Orleans Saints Offensive Ranking

The New Orleans Saints went through two quarterbacks in 2022. Neither of them made a positive impact on their Scoring Behavior (SBx).

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means a defense was getting better

  • Trending up means a defense was getting worse.
    

The Quarterback Was A Safe Bet To Be Bad: Bounce Rate

The New Orleans Saints Jameis Winston for the first three games and then turned the reins over to Andy Dalton. It didn’t matter:

• Overall from start to finish the Saints had a “Proceed With Caution” rating from the Football Behavior Risk Assessment:

  • Overall Bounce rate of x3

  • Winston had a bounce rate of x2.3 through three games

  • Dalton had a x2.6 bounce rate, a 13% regression

• Dalton had three outliers that, if removed, would have further improved his consistency by 35%from x2.6 to x1.7, making his performances the safest bets in the NFL.

  • Week 9 | 0.4 SBx

  • Week 10 | 0.3 SBx

  • Week 18 |0.24 SBx

Either Way, The Quarterback Play Wasn't Good Enough: SBx Rate

The Saints SBx Rate:

• Was trending in the wrong direction with both quarterbacks..

  • The move away from Winston made sense. After a decent start, Winston had two performances below 0.5 SBx with an 81% regression through three games.

  • Andy Dalton got worse as the season went on, ending with his worst performance of the season, regressing at a 28% rate week over week.

New Orleans Saints Defensive Ranking

The Saints defense had two very different seasons. In the first half of the season they were among the league’s worst. In the second half? They were among the league’s best.

Saints Defense Was Safe To Bet On In Both Halves: Bounce Rate

The Saints defense had an overall of bounce rate of x6:

• Bounce rate of x6 was well within the “Stay Away” zone, but needs context.

  • The overall bounce rate was heavily influenced by an outlier on 10/30, in which they shut out the Las Vegas Raiders.

  • They also had two very different halves of the season.

  • In the first half they were a very safe bet with a x1.5 bounce rate, with the caveat they were getting worse week over week at a rate of 60%.

  • In the second half of the season they were a very safe bet with a x1.6 bounce rate, with the caveat that they were getting better week over week at a rate of 35%.

The Saints Defense Was A Tale Of Two Cities: SPBx

The Saints SPBx Rate:

• Was getting worse week over week through the first seven games at a rate of 60%, with an average SPBx of 0.899

  • That SPBx put them among the league’s worst through the first seven games of the season.

• Through the next nine games, starting just the shutout of the Raiders, they got better at a rate of 35%, with an average SPBx of 0.368, a 59% improvement.

  • The 0.368 SPBx, would have made them the best in the NFL, if carried out for 17 games.

New Orleans Saints 2023 Outlook

The Saints 2023 success rests on the success of the massive changes they have made at quarterback.

• Signing Derek Carr from the Raiders is a massive upgrade from the Winston/Dalton combination that had in 2022.

• Any improvement will give them a shot at the NFC South title.

• Improvement does not mean consistency, however.

  • We need to proceed with caution before we place bets, until we see how Carr is able to perform in this new environment.

• The Saints defense is poised to pick up where they left off in 2022, and should remain one of the more consistent units in the NFL.

The New Orleans Saints have a “Proceed With Caution” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Report

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were not a good football team in 2022, and Tom Brady retirement leaves them in a lurch.

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• Final score predictions for every game

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• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offensive Ranking

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could not have had a more disastrous end to the Tom Brady era, which sounds strange about a team coming off of a playoff run. Yet, making the playoffs hurt more long term than it helped, as Brady’s exit leaves them in a full rebuild mode. Here is what they leave behind regarding their Scoring Behavior (SBx).

Key for reading the charts:

• Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SPBx) Average

  • The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.

• Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries

  • Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.

  • The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.

• Solid Black Line: Celeration trend

  • Trending down means a defense was getting better

  • Trending up means a defense was getting worse.
    

The Brady-Led Offense Was Mostly Consistent: Bounce Rate

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were mostly consistent on offense, making them a relatively safe bet:

• Overall from start to finish the Buccaneers had a “Stay Away” rating from the Football Behavior Risk Assessment, but context matters:

  • Overall Bounce rate of x3.4

  • Two extreme outliers hurt their consistency

• Removing the two extreme outliers revealed an offense that was very consistent.

  • Aside from the 10/23/22 and 12/11/22 performances, the offense had a x1.8 bounce rate, making them a “Safe Bet”.

  • Week 7 | 0.1 SBx (@ Carolina Panthers)

  • Week 14 | 0.26 SBx (@ San Francisco 49ers)

The Offense Didn’t Improve Or Regress in 2022: SBx Rate

The Buccaneers SBx Rate:

• Remained stable from start to finish of 2022.

  • They showed a slight improvement from Week 1 through Week 18, with a 1% growth week over week.

  • 11 of their 17 games were at 0.7 SBx or below.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive Ranking

The Buccaneers defense was not good at all. They started with a dominating performance in Week 1, and it all went downhill from there.

Buccaneers Defense Was Bad, But A Safe Bet: Bounce Rate

The Buccaneers defense had an overall of bounce rate of x2.7:

• Bounce rate of x2.7 is in the “Proceed With Caution” zone, but needs context.

  • The overall bounce rate was heavily influenced by an outlier in Week 1 where the Buccaneers gave up just three points to the Dallas Cowboys, in a game Dak Prescott would not finish due to injury.

  • Removing that outlier brings their bounce rate down to x2.2, well within the “Safe Bet” zone.

The Buccaneers Defense Got Worse: SPBx

The Buccaneers SPBx Rate:

• Was getting worse week over week by 37%.

  • The SPBx rate of 37% regression was the worst in the NFL.

• After the bye week, their average SPBx jumped 75%.

  • Went from 0.467 to 0.817.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Outlook

The Buccaneers 2023 success will likely be hard to come by.

• The roster has been severely stripped down.

• The battle at quarterback is between two journeymen.

• The defense has undergone a tear down.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a “Stay Away” rating in the Football Behavior Risk Assessment through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

Why Is This Valuable?

The data in this report is a small part of Football Behavior’s proprietary analytics and prediction modeling. This information not only helps coaches and players on the field, but also fans and especially sports bettors.

To access the full money making potential of this information, make sure you get a Pigeon Picks Pass to get:

• Final score predictions for every game

• Football Behavior Risk Assessment ratings for every team, updated every week

• Football Behavior Improvement Index for all teams, updated weekly

• Key player prop predictions for all primetime games

With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

• How likely a team is to continue a certain trend

• How to bet off of two team trends who are competing head to head

• How a trend could impact the point spread

• How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

• With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)

What Does It All Mean?

In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or regressing. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration. Check out our glossary for a better understanding.

Coaches that Football Behavior works with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.