Power Rankings For Bettors: Sleepers Edition

A big part of sports betting is finding value. Often, that value is represented through the odds put on a particular outcome, and whether or not, the sportsbooks are likely to have gotten it wrong.

We see this often in assessing point spreads for game outcomes, and determining who the favorites should be.

Our Betting Power Rankings tool looks for the hidden the value by assessing team behavior in various areas such as consistency (or risk), improvement/regression rates, and how much margin for error a team has in a particular game.

We looked for sleepers among those teams that others may be using superstition to assess.

Before you get started, answer our poll and tell us where your head is at right now:

Below is a list of our top five potential sleepers to find value with heading into to 2023.

5. Denver Broncos (14th)

There is no doubt that the Denver Broncos had a brutal season that was below the standard expected. The addition of Russell Wilson was supposed to make them an AFC West competitor. Instead they found themselves in the basement of the division.

Even with the loss of Tim Patrick to the Achilles, something they had to experience last year as well when he tore his ACL, I am more bullish then most on the value with the Broncos as a bettor in 2023.

Why do they have hidden value?

Margin of Error

The Broncos had a negative margin of error on average in 2022. They gave up 0.087 more points per minute than they scored. Yet, the defense was a top 12 unit in terms of the score prevention behavior.

While that is a testament to just how bad the offense was, the prevailing belief is that most of that had to do with bad coaching and environment. Sean Payton is now in charge, and you have to believe that even a slight improvement in scoring behavior will occur. Only a slight improvement flips them into a positive margin of error.

Why is that important? 

15 teams had a positive margin of error in 2022. 13 of them went to the playoffs.

Football Behavior Improvement Index

The Broncos were one of 16 teams with a positive Improvement Index score. Over the course of the season, they improved as a team by 22.5%.

Offense and defense are not weighted equally for winning. Offensive improvement or regression will have a much larger impact on team performance in the win-loss column. So while the defense regressed by 26% over the course of the entire season, the offense saw a 14% improvement overall.

That improvement came late in the season, mostly over the last five games. In fact the offense had been regressing until that point. Compared to their first 12 games, the Broncos offense improved by 75% in scoring behavior over the last five games.

Continued improvement there with Sean Payton coming in and resetting the environment should pay dividends.

Football Behavior Risk Assessment

Denver was the fifth safest team to bet on according to the Football Behavior Risk Assessment tool. With a combined bounce rate of x2.5, they were nothing if not consistent in 2022.

With a new coaching staff in 2023, we expect there to be a bit more volatility in their performances week to week, but given the key performers are the same, and they will be in a less chaotic environment, we should see consistency as the season goes on.

4. New England Patriots (11th)

The division around the Patriots got better. Of that there is no doubt. However, they were not as far off as it appeared last season. This is a team that may surprise folks in 2023. Currently, they are +250 to make the playoffs. Here’s why that may be good value.

Why do they have hidden value?

Margin of Error

Last season, the Patriots defense had three extreme outliers. They had three games where they pitched a shutout and gave up three points twice. If you remove those three games, their score prevention behavior increases substantially from 0.464 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, to 0.718.

Ranking wise, that means they go from number one, to 24th. Part of being a behaviorist means understanding when outlier behaviors are skewing our understanding of a behavioral profile. Given the disparity between those three games, and the remaining 14 the Patriots played, who they were for those 14 is who they are.

We assessed accordingly, and New England’s -0.021 margin of error in 2022 is representative of who they are. Their offense was a top half of the league scoring unit but their defense needs some real work.

On offense they averaged 0.697 points per minute of possession. That was good enough for 14th in the NFL. 12 of the 13 teams above them made the postseason.

They added great talent in the draft on the defensive side in the NFL draft. Based on my film review, Keion White could be a huge addition as a rookie. He adds much needed pass rushing and run stopping prowess on the edge.

They also further added to the offense with pass catching investments like Mike Gesicki and Demario Douglas who could be a sleeper addition that helps Mac Jones improve on their top half of the league scoring behavior. They can flip their margin of error to positive very easily. Just doing that gives them an 87% chance of making the post season.

Football Behavior Improvement Index

The Patriots saw 9% improvement on offense over the course of the 2022 season. Following the same pattern as above, removing those three outliers means the defense didn’t see any regression or improvement. Through those 14 games they essentially performed the same.

Defensive improvement combined with an offense they continue to invest it should see this trend continue into 2023.

3. Los Angeles Rams (10th)

Not having Matthew Stafford available to defend their Super Bowl championship led to a rough season for the Rams. But, upon further review, there were some bright spots that the return of Stafford should only push further.

The Rams are +300 to make the playoffs in a conference with few great quarterbacks and a lot of question marks overall. The Rams may have some hidden value to sneak some extra wins.

Why do they have hidden value?

Football Behavior Improvement Index 

This is where their true hidden value is find. Despite all of the issues, the Rams got better as the season went on. They were one of only six teams to have improvement rates on both sides of the ball, and finished as the fifth most improved team of 2022.

On offense they improved by 6% over the course of the season, and by 1% on defense. Adding Stafford to an environment that showed the ability to improve as the year went on can only mean good things.

Football Behavior Risk Assessment

The Rams were also the sixth safest team to bet on in 2022. With a Risk Assessment score of x2.55, they showed remarkable consistency for a roster so beset by injuries.

Consistency is a good thing for sports bettors. Stability at quarterback can only make them more consistent a year after starting four different players at the position in 2022.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (7th)

I’m higher on the Steelers than most. In a previous newsletter we highlighted the value of TJ Watt and how crucial that missed time was for them. Assuming he is healthy and Kenny Pickett continues to develop, this is a sleeper team with value for bettors.

This team can surprise early. Right now they are +130 on the moneyline Week 1 vs the 49ers and 3 point underdogs. We’ll keep an eye on that spread as we get closer to opening day.

I suspect as Brock Purdy continues to practice and practice well, books will move that line, given the question on who the quarterback will be is why the line is as close as it is right now.

Why do they have hidden value?

Margin of Error

The Steelers had a negative margin of error of 0.124 points per minute. The reason for this is two-fold: the aforementioned injury to TJ Watt which. Without him, they had the fifth worst score prevention behavior in the NFL. After he returned? Fifth best.

Additionally, Kenny Pickett will now have a experience from his rookie season, and a full offseason as the unquestioned starter. He doesn’t need to be a superstar, but a version of Daniel Jones-esque growth would make the a playoff contender for sure.

Both sides of the margin of error equation are trending in the right direction.

Football Behavior Improvement Index 

Overall, as a team, the Steelers were the second most improved team of 2022. As the season went on they continued to get better and better. That is how an injury impacted season with a rookie quarterback didn’t end in a losing season.

The Steelers are now adding environmental stability to an improving team and mindset. That should not be glossed over.

1. Detroit Lions (6th)

I think the secret is mostly out on the potential of the Detroit Lions for 2023. However, I think some of the focus they should be getting as bee shifted to shinier objects like the Jets and other teams. Yet, the Lions are real contenders, and the books know it.

While the Lions are +7 Week 1 against the Chiefs, they are -170 to make the playoffs, favored to win the NFC North, but only +1000 to win the NFC. The books know they will be pushing for a playoff berth in the end, but they aren’t ready to see them on the same tier as the Chiefs. Do we?

Why do they have hidden value?

Margin of Error

The Lions were one of 15 teams to have a positive margin of error score. Of those 15, they were one of only two who did not make the playoffs. Part of that is because of the early season struggles of their defense.

They got better starting in Week 5 after they reportedly made scheme changes to their defense in order to simplify things. Prior to those changes, the Lions had a score prevention behavior (SPBx) of 1.13 points allowed per minute of opponent possession, by far the worst in the NFL.

After those changes in Week 5, their SPBx dropped to an average of 0.684. That change was a 39.5% improvement.

On offense, they had two extreme outliers in Weeks 5 and 7. If you remove those, as we did for the New England defense, they had a scoring behavior of 0.982 points per minute of possession time, which would have been the best in football, even better than the Chiefs, their week one opponent.

Football Behavior Improvement Index 

The Detroit Lions were the most improved team in 2022 according to our Improvement Index, improving by 57% as a team. Once the defense began to stabilize and improve, they were a different team.

Prior to those changes, they were 1-4. After those changes, they were 8-4. That momentum is something to hoping to ride through all of 2023. They really found themselves, and kept a stable environment. There is no reason to suspect a drop off, but only continued movement forward.