Week 16 TNF Recap

The Broncos and Chargers squared off in a matchup that changed the shape of the bottom of the AFC playoff picture, which could have several big time effects. We had four picks for that game. Let’s see how we did.

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As we dive in, here is the original Projection:

What we got right…

The Broncos Offensive Behavior vs. Chargers Defensive Behavior

We projected the Broncos to score 26 points against the Chargers defense, and we nearly hit it on the head. Denver ended up with 27 points vs LA.

We projected Denver would score 0.83 points per minute, and that’s right where they came in. We based this on the continued growth of the Denver offense, which was 14% week over week coming into last night.

We weighed that against the week over week regression of the Chargers defense, which was 24% week over week, and that gave us confidence in picking the Broncos to go OVER 20.5 points on the night. A win for us at +100 odds, allowing us to double our money!

What we got wrong…

Broncos defensive behavior vs. Chargers offensive behavior

Ultimately the game came down to the inability of the Broncos defense to get stops in the second half of the game, preceded by a massive outlier of a Free kick to end the first half.

That free kick gave LA three unaccounted-for points, and seemed to spur some momentum going into the half. They were aided by the referees on some penalties that helped them on two separate touchdown drives as well.

Those 17 points alone put them nearly at the 22.5 points we projected them to stay under.

This led to Denver posting its second worst game of the season, trailing only the November 3rd drubbing at the hands of the Ravens, which still remains an outlier.

This also puts Denver in a 20% week over week regression on defense.

Denver goes as its defense goes. Giving up 31 points (3 points were not given up by the defense) in only 27 minutes and change is not how this team is going to win going forward.

To the Chargers credit, it was their second best performance of the season, and easily their best in over a month. It was only the 3rd time all year they got above 1 point per minute of possession time.

The lack of frequency for these types of performances from LA, makes this a bit of a tough one to have been able to predict. This particular outcome had less than a 20% probability based on each side of this particular matchup

Going with the higher probability is why we predicted the Broncos to cover the spread and win on the moneyline. Obviously, neither happened.

When we miss, it feels better when it was something we shouldn’t have accounted for, like the first free kick since 1976, or the Chargers behavior in this game on offense being contrary to their profile.

That means we get to learn something new about these teams, and that we didn’t miss on a bad projection. In this beautiful sport, the best part about it is that sometimes, shit happens.

What does it mean?

Playoff Implications

The outcome of this game, to lead off Week 16 has now changed the bottom of the AFC seeding, with these teams flipping spots.

Seeding plays a huge role in our ability to predict the playoffs and who will eventually head to the Super Bowl from each conference.

Prior to this matchup, we predicted Denver would face Buffalo in the AFC title game.

That has now changed. Less so because of the loss itself, and more because of how the seeding matchups play out. Prior to this game, as the 6 seed, Denver would have avoided Buffalo until the AFC title game.

Now, as a 7th seed, they have to see Buffalo in the wild card. When we project that matchup out, Denver loses.

This makes for a most likely AFC title game, pending the rest if the Week 16 slate, the Buffalo Bills taking on the Kansas City Chiefs.

Again, this could all change, as seeding changes. Matchups matter big time in the playoffs, and the path you are forced to take is significant.

Each week, we will update this for subscribers. And make sure you follow me on Threads for any up to the moment insights, especially as games are live.

Here is our latest:

We have Saturday games coming up, so if you missed yesterdays newsletter, check out those projections and picks here.

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