Week 16 Analytics Update

Icons on the Field Wear Icons on Their Feet

This Holiday Season, Give Yourself the Gift of Nike Air Max.

This winter, take your footwear game to the next level with Nike's Air Max collection for men. With a diverse range of models, this collection prioritizes comfort and functionality, perfectly tailored to meet your everyday needs. Whether you're hitting the gym or heading out for a casual outing, these sneakers deliver the support you crave without compromising on style.

Find the perfect pair that matches your lifestyle and get ready to make a statement with every step. Treat yourself to a fresh pair from the collection this holiday season—you deserve it.

Shop the Men’s Air Max Collection

With Week 16 upon us, there are just three games left for teams to jockey for postseason positioning. As it stands now, it looks unlikely the standings will change much, but the beauty of the NFL is that you never know.

In here we will look at what the analytics tell us, but first, our projections for Thursday Night Football, and the special Saturday edition of NFL games.

Thursday Night Football Preview

Broncos Upset?

We’re actually a bit surprised that the Broncos are dogs in this one. But if you believe home field is worth 3 points in a spread, then this spread means on a neutral field Denver would be favored by half a point.

We don’t put much stock in home field advantage as a general rule (half the teams are .500 or worse at home), but especially for the Chargers who, while one game over .500 at home, don’t draw much of a crowd.

The reality about why we project Denver to win, and win somewhat comfortably, is in the behavior.

Chargers Defense in a Regression

Week over week the Chargers defense is in a regression in terms of score prevention behavior. In fact, its a pretty stark regression of 22%.

While their season average is among the five best defenses in the league, much of that is from first-half-of-the-season glory that has yet replicate in the back half.

They held teams, in their first eight games of the season, to 0.7 points per minute of opponent possession time or less. Four of those games were 0.3 points per minute or less.

Regression Sets in

In their last six games, opponents have scored more than 0.6 points per minute five times, three times over 0.8 points per minute, with last week being their worst game of the season. They allowed the Bucs to score over 1 point per minute.

In this specific game environment, that gets paired with a Broncos offense in a 16% growth phase in terms of their own scoring behavior. Their last four games were all over 0.8 points per minute, which is true of six of their last eight games.

For these reasons, the pairing of opposing behavioral trends that have consistent standing, We like the Broncos to score OVER 20.5 in this one and cover the spread, by winning on the moneyline outright.

What About Chargers Point Total?

The Broncos defense is legit elite. Barring something unforeseen, they will be the best score prevention defense we’ve measured in the last three years. They’re a more than half a point better than last year’s Chiefs defense, which had been the best.

12 out of their 14 games played by this defense have seen them hold their opponents to UNDER 0.7 points per minute. That’s astounding. Only once have they allowed a team too go over 1 point per minute, in an outlier performance to the Ravens.

The Chargers last three games have been at that mark or lower. In a vacuum, the LA offense is trending towards a 0.75 ppm performance. Then, when we add the Broncos to that environment, it gets even lower.

That’s why we put half a unit on the Chargers to score UNDER 22.5 points, something they have kept opponents to 10 times this season.

Saturday Games

A Mirage?

Both of these teams have better records than their behavior say they should. To the Texans credit, they have played the toughest schedule in the league based on our behavior analytics.

The Chiefs have likewise played a tough schedule, though it’s gotten MUCH easier as of late.

So this matchup is the current number one seed playing the current number four seed in the AFC playoffs. Though, neither is really behaving like the teams atop the conference.

In our Margin for Error Score metric, the Chiefs currently sit 16th, and the Texans are 21st. This metric has predicted the Super Bowl participants in each of the last two seasons upon its creation.

Neither offense is humming right now, and neither defense is playing as well as it did last year.

Why Texans Cover?

The Texans offense has been the most consistent one in football all year long in terms of scoring. They are pretty much a lock for 0.7 points per minute every game.

The key for them is possession time. 0.7 ppm is a lot different if you do it for 30 minutes vs 20 minutes. That’s the difference of a touchdown on the scoreboard.

We project this to be a super close game, and every minute will count. If they get above 28 minutes of possession time at that scoring rate, we like their chances to cover.

The Chiefs defense is not regressing or in growth through 15 week, flatlining at…0.701 points per minute allowed (which is 38% worse than last year’s unit).

So the question will be the Texans defense vs the KC offense which us leads us to…

Why Chiefs Under?

It starts with the Texans defense is seeing a 13% improvement week over week in score prevention. In this game environment, that is pairing with the Chiefs offense seeing a 2% regression in scoring behavior week over week.

Not major, but it does bring us to this moment where the trends line up. The projections line up that in a vacuum the Texans are projected to allow 0.7 points per min, and the KC offense is expected to score 0.69 (nice) points per minute.

At that rate of scoring and the projected times of possession, The Chiefs will struggle to get to 23 points. We threw half a unit on this one.

The Ravens will likely win this one, but we like the Steelers to keep it within a touchdown and score over 18.5 points.

Why Steelers Over?

Simply, the Ravens defense is horrendous. We aren’t going to allow a 14 point performance against (checks notes) Thomas Devito and Tim Boyle fool us into believing they’ve turned a corner.

The Ravens defense has allowed 0.8 points per minute or higher in 10 out of 14 games this year. That is absurdly terrible. The four outlier games, including last week, are so far removed from that they don’t give us an accurate representation of who they are.

One of those outlier games where their defense actually fared well was against the Steelers. The Steelers scored 18 points in that one…and won. We think they fare better in this one.

But speaking of scoring just 18 points and winning….

Why the Steelers cover?

The Steelers know how to control the rock. We believe that they’ll play well on the road in familiar territory and play keep away from this dynamic Ravens offense.

And this isn’t the Giants defense. They just held an Eagles offense that employs a similar attack on offense to 27 points in nearly 40 minutes of possession time. To have the ball for 2/3 of the game and not score 30 points is wild.

Where’s the Concern?

It has to be Wilson. The last two weeks that passing attack has looked really rough. Scoring has flat lined with Wilson as the starter, and is much more inconsistent. A stark difference from the start of the season where the offense saw steady, consistent growth with Fields under center.

That can be seen with the green lines on the chart. They are 31% more inconsistent in scoring points with Wilson as the starter.

We have the Steelers losing by four points, with the potential to keep it closer.

Behavioral Analytics Leaders

^{Through Week 15}

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Teams

(Points Scored Per Minute of Possession Time)

1. Buffalo Bills (1.05 points/min)

2. Green Bay Packers (0.951 points/min)

3. Detroit Lions (0.93 points/min)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.916 points/min)

5. Cincinnati Bengals (0.902 points/min)

Top 5 Score Prevention Behavior Teams

(Points Allowed Per Minute of Opponent Possession Time)

1. Denver Broncos (0.455 points allowed/min)

2. Minnesota Vikings (0.548 points allowed/min)

3. Los Angeles Chargers (0.555 points allowed/min)

4. New Orleans Saints (0.58 points allowed/min)

5. Arizona Cardinals (0.586 points allowed/min)

Top 5 Margin For Error Score

(+/- of Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior, fitted to a scale capped at 100)

1. Buffalo Bills (74.6)

2. Green Bay Packers (63.7)

3. Minnesota Vikings (59.7)

4. Denver Broncos (56.6)

5. Detroit Lions (54.3)

Top 5 Most Improved Offenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Scoring Growth (%))

1. Denver Broncos (16%)

2. New England Patriots (13%)

3. Detroit Lions (11%)

4. Los Angeles Chargers (11%)

5. New York Jets (11%)

Top 5 Most Improved Defenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Score Prevention (%))

1. San Francisco 49ers (15%

2. Baltimore Ravens (13%)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (12%)

4. Los Angeles Rams (12%)

5. Carolina Panthers (12%)

Top 5 Most Improved Teams Overall

(Week to Week Combined Rate of Improvement in Scoring and Score Prevention Behavior (%))

1. Philadelphia Eagles (25.4%)

2. Los Angeles Rams (25.4%)

3. Baltimore Ravens (21.9%)

4. Houston Texans (17.52%)

5. Green Bay Packers (14.49%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Offense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Houston Texans (x1.2)

2. Green Bay Packers (x1.5)

3. New England Patriots (x1.6)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (x1.7)

5. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.7)

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Defense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Baltimore Ravens (x1.7)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.8)

3. Houston Texans (x1.9)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (x1.9)

5. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.9)

Top 5 Most Consistent Teams Overall

(Combined Likely Multiple of Variation in a Team’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Houston Texans (x1.55)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.75)

3. New England Patriots (x1.8)

4. Baltimore Ravens (x1.9)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (x1.9)

Top 5 Toughest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Indianapolis Colts (37.75)

2. Houston Texans (36.97)

3. New York Jets (35.05)

4. Los Angeles Rams (35.04

5. Atlanta Falcons (34.52)

Top 5 Easiest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Cincinnati Bengals (19.85)

2. Washington Commanders (20.36)

3. Buffalo Bills (23.14)

4. Los Angeles Chargers (23.36)

5. Denver Broncos (24.31)

Top 5 Total Team Behavior Score

(Weighted combining of Margin For Error Score, Momentum Index, Consistency Score, and Strength of Schedule)

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. Minnesota Vikings

5. Houston Texans

FULL 32 Team Behavioral Database

*Ranked by Margin For Error Score

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.