Week 12 Football Behavior Guide

As we go into Week 12, we are coming off a profitable Week 11 and a 7-4 record! (Shout out Pigeon Picks+ Subscribers!!), and are now:

• 25-10 (71.4%) in the Month of November

• 34-11 (75.5%) since Week 8

• 95-52-3 (64.6%) overall during thew 2024 NFL season.

We kick off Week 12 with Sunday and Monday Night Football, PLUS, our Pigeon Pick of the Week!

Then we give our Pigeon Picks+ subscribers every pick we’ve made for Week 12!

If you missed the rankings and analytics that’s make up these projections, check out our latest NFL Rankings post that went out Thursday…

Week 12 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

We placed just a half unit on this game because the Rams in particular have had some consistency issues, making them a bit unpredictable.

Puka Nacua has been back for four games, and the offense has put up two of its best performances, both over 0.9 points per minute. But in between those, they also had two of their worst games, both under 0.6 points per minute.

That equates to a x2.5 bounce rate over those four games, which would be outside of our hit range. Obviously his presence gives that offense a lift, but they haven’t yet seemed to find the groove, making their predictability a bit lower than we’d prefer.

But, even taking their best projections from the last four weeks worth of behavior, they still fail to come within 2.5 points of the Eagles. So, we think the Eagles cover, but would advise extreme caution if you’re going to part with hard earned money on this one.

Monday Night Football

Another primetime game with the Ravens where we project them to lose. What could go wrong?

The Ravens have been our bugaboo this season. Their defense is atrocious and yet their offense has kept over performing to save them form it, costing us a few notches in our belt this season.

We’ve often wondered here in this newsletter, when would the offensive explosions die down, and when it did happen could the defense step up.

Well, last week we took Pittsburgh on the ML and with the spread, and we won, BUT, it was a case where the defense largely did its job and the offense fell hard.

This week they go on the road against a surging Chargers team and we project that defense to be what it’s been all season: really bad. The question is can the Ravens offense get back to form against a stingy Chargers defense.

No one knows Lamar Jackson better than Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and we have to imagine that only helps the defense.

One thing to be mindful of if tailing this game: The Chargers have faced the easiest schedule of the season according to our analytics. But they have faced good teams (Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals, Broncos), and held them all UNDER 23 points.

We think the offense has found itself since the bye week, improving by 44% week over week, and putting up its best scoring behavior rate performances of the season in each of the last four weeks.

Pigeon Pick of the Week

No we don’t think the Panthers will win, but there is good behavior-backed reason to think that the Panthers will cover the 10.5 points!

All Week 12 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 11 Pigeon Picks

and Final Score Predictions

Looking for our 10th profitable week this season, here are all of our Week 11 picks.

Thank you to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers for riding with us!

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.