Week 12 Team Rankings

Week 12 Preview

As we head into Week 12 we are continuing our winning streak with a 7-4 Week 11 record:

This brings our November record to 25-10, and our overall record for the 2024 NFL season to 95-52-3 (64.6%).

Shoutout to our Pigeon Picks+ subscribers who have been tailing us all season! We’re up +29.8 units of profit on the season, which would pay for several years worth of our subscription, if your own personal unit size is over $3.36.

Week 12 Thursday Night Football

Another Thursday Night Football, BUT perhaps NOT a high stakes matchup even if it is divisional. In fact, we get the Browns the next two weeks in primetime. I’m not sure why we’re being punished, but alas…

There are some things with this game that give us pause, and one of them is the very low spread number. The Steelers should be favored by much more, and that worries us.

We’ve been burned by these games before (Ravens/Bills as one example) where it doesn't make football sense why the spread is so low. So, we have placed a bet in this one, but we recommend proceeding with extreme caution. This line is fishy.

Week 12 Analytics

Top 5 Teams In Need of Environmental Change

1. Cincinnati Bengals
   We stand by this one, even after their loss on Sunday Night Football. A loss that saw Burrow and Chase have to resort to backyard football just to get back in the game. Following the loss, the Bengals are now 27th (-5) in the Momentum Index, 20th in consistency score, and 15th (-3) in Margin For Error Score. We said this on Threads, but Zac Taylor does not deserve Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase, who had some interesting comments post game.

2. Chicago Bears
   Lots of people were praising the difference in Caleb Waldron fallowing the dismissal of Shane Waldron, and I’m like…why? They barely scored more than half a point per minute of possession time, turning in yet another bad performance. Did Williams look better? perhaps. But who cares if it doesn’t translate into points or a win? They held the ball for a whopping 36 minutes, got two extra opportunities off of turnovers and scored just 19 points.

3. Dallas Cowboys
   Dallas is still here, and they’ve gotten worse. Now, the Cowboys rank 29th in consistency score, 32nd in Momentum Index (can’t get worse than that), and 28th in Margin For Error score. It’s gone from bad to worser, and it seemingly has little to do with losing Dak Prescott.

4. New York Jets
   They fired GM Joe Douglas this week. That won’t change the issues on the field, as this team is headed towards a major shakeup, yet again, this offseason. One bright spot? The offense has been improving by 65% week over week since the firing of Rob Saleh and the switching of play callers.

5. New York Giants
   The Giants must read the newsletter, because they benched Daniel Jones, which is a major shakeup environmentally. But they must not be reading it well, because they’re starting Tommy Devito, who may not actually be an NFL quarterback, over Drew Lock, who has been the backup all year. This reads as a move to tank for a better draft pick, which likely won’t save jobs in the end, and will only piss off veteran players working their ass off.

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Teams

(Points Scored Per Minute of Possession Time)

1. Buffalo Bills (0.954 points/min)

2. Baltimore Ravens (0.952 points/min)

3. Detroit Lions (0.949 points/min)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.928 points/min)

5. Washington Commanders (0.922 points/min)

Top 5 Score Prevention Behavior Teams

(Points Allowed Per Minute of Opponent Possession Time)

1. Denver Broncos (0.409 points allowed/min)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (0.499 points allowed/min)

3. Minnesota Vikings (0.527 points allowed/min)

4. Detroit Lions (0.539 points allowed/min)

5. Buffalo Bills (0.541 points allowed/min)

Top 5 Margin For Error Score

(+/- of Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior, fitted to a scale capped at 100)

1. Buffalo Bills (71.3)

2. Detroit Lions (71)

3. Denver Broncos (56.4)

4. Washington Commanders (48.3)

5. Los Angeles Chargers (47.2)

Top 5 Most Improved Offenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Scoring Growth (%))

1. Miami Dolphins (56%)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (44%

3. Los Angeles Rams (32%)

4. Detroit Lions (31%)

5. New York Giants (23%)

Top 5 Most Improved Defenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Score Prevention (%))

1. Arizona Cardinals (41%)

2. Carolina Panthers (27%)

3. Detroit Lions (22%)

4. Los Angeles Rams (16%)

5. Denver Broncos (15%)

Top 5 Most Improved Teams Overall

(Week to Week Combined Rate of Improvement in Scoring and Score Prevention Behavior (%))

1. Arizona Cardinals (95.5%)

2. Detroit Lions (67.68%)

3. Miami Dolphins (60.68%)

4. Los Angeles Rams (57.08%)

5. Carolina Panthers (46.59%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Offense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (x1.6)

2. Seattle Seahawks (x1.7)

3. Houston Texans (x1.7)

4. New England Patriots (x1.7)

5. Tennessee Titans (x1.7)

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Defense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.4)

2. San Francisco 49ers (x1.5)

3. Los Angeles Rams (x1.5)

4. Atlanta Falcons (x1.5)

5. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.6)

Top 5 Most Consistent Teams Overall

(Combined Likely Multiple of Variation in a Team’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.7)

2. San Francisco 49ers (x1.75)

3. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.85)

4. Los Angeles Rams (x1.85)

5. Baltimore Ravens (x1.85)

Top 5 Toughest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Houston Texans (42.04)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (38.86)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38.35)

4. New York Jets (37.26)

5. Tennessee Titans (36.83)

Top 5 Easiest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Los Angeles Chargers (18.79)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (19.56)

3. New England Patriots (20.22)

4. Buffalo Bills (21.12)

5. Washington Commanders (21.7)

Top 5 Margin For Error Scores

Strength of Schedule Adjusted

(Calculated by weighting a team’s Margin For Error Score against their Strength of Schedule Score)

1. Detroit Lions

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4. Buffalo Bills

5. Indianapolis Colts

Top 5 Total Team Behavior Score

(Weighted combining of Margin For Error Score, Momentum Index, Consistency Score, and Strength of Schedule)

1. Detroit Lions

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. Baltimore Ravens

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Denver Broncos

FULL 32 Team Rankings

(Full Rankings in each of the major behavior categories, shown with their offensive and defensive scores as well)

Power Rankings

(Margin For Error Score)

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