Week 11 Football Behavior Guide

Big games are on the docket for Week 11 and we have picks for many of them. We went 10-3 in our Week 10 picks (Shoutout Pigeon Picks+ Subscribers!!), and are now:

• 18-6 (75%) in the Month of November

• 27-7 (79.4%) since Week 8

• 88-48-3 (64.7%) overall during thew 2024 NFL season.

And our quest to keep it going through Week 11 starts for everyone with two primetime games!

If you missed the rankings and analytics that’s make up these projections, check out our latest NFL Rankings post that went out Thursday…

Week 11 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

Bengals @ Chargers

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 19, Chargers 26

We like the Chargers to win this game, and cover the one point spread. Their offense has been surging with a 29% week to week improvement in scoring behavior over the course of the season, which is good enough for 3rd overall.

They’ll be facing a weak Bengals defense that ranks 25th in the NFL in Score Prevention Behavior, allowing an average of 0.8 points per minute of possession time while regressing by 22% in that category week over week, ranking 27th in the NFL.

While the Bengals seemingly will be back to full strength on O with Higgins making his return, tackle Orlando Brown Jr will be out, going against a Chargers defense ranked second in the NFL, allowing an average of 0.471 points per minute of possession time.

Both of these teams have faced a relatively easy schedule.

Monday Night Football

Texans @ Cowboys

Final Score Prediction: Texans 28, Cowboys 15

We are not placing a bet on this game even though we have a high degree of confidence in a Texans victory.

This will be the Cowboys second game without Dak Prescott and while we don’t necessarily think Cooper Rush or Trey Lance is going to light it up, there is behavioral uncertainty around those players in this 2024 environment.

That uncertainty makes a 7 point spread bet a bit too risky, and a moneyline bet (-350) not worth the risk at those odds. Throw in the fact that the Cowboys are 29th in our Consistency Score, and predicting their behavior becomes all the more challenging.

To quantify that risk, there is 90% chance their next performance occurs within a multiple of 2.6 in either direction from their previous performance, not accepting for the specific Texans matchup.

For example, when accounting specifically for the Texans offensive environment, the Cowboys defense could give up as many as 51 points, or as few as 20. That is way too big a window of outcomes to feel certain about any one of them.

So our recommendation is to save your money on this game. In a sport where anything can happen, this isn’t the game to risk money on.

Pigeon Pick of the Week

Rams @ Patriots

Final Score Prediction: Rams 21, Patriots 20

With the image, you would think we are picking the Patriots to win, but in fact we picked the Patriots image because our bet for this game is Patriots to cover the 4.5 points.

This is our game with the highest degree of certainty (though remember that certainty is never 100%). Here is why:

• Both teams have relatively flat celeration trends so potential for big outlier is reduced. Neither team is trending more than 20% regression or improvement in either direction

• Both teams rank in the top 10 for Consistency Score, narrowing the range of possible outcomes (LA is 2nd, NE is 6th)

• Both teams trends match up with their opponents opposing side of the ball

• Rams may win a close one, but New England will have a clear pathway to an upset, making a cover very much in play

All Week 11 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 11 Pigeon Picks

and Final Score Predictions

Looking for our 10th profitable week this season, here are all of our Week 11 picks.

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