NFL Week 11 Analytics

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Week 11 Preview

Week 11 is upon us. We went 10-3 in our Week 10 picks (Shoutout Pigeon Picks+ Subscribers), and are now:

• 18-6 (75%) in the Month of November

• 27-7 (79.4%) since Week 8, when we have enough 2024 behavioral data to be highly selective based on behavioral criteria.

• 88-48-3 (64.7%) overall during thew 2024 NFL season.

We have updated our “teams in need of major environmental change”, along with all of the other rankings in our exclusive analytics.

But first, a Thursday Night Football Prediction🔮

Week 11 Thursday Night Football

Another Thursday Night Football, and another high stakes divisional matchup. This game will tell us a lot about both teams.

The Eagles defense has allowed under half. point per minute four times this season:

• Saints (who lost Erik McCoy in game)

• Deshaun Watson’s Browns

• The Giants

• A Dak-Less Cowboys

The Eagles defense has played a top-15 Scoring Behavior Offense four times this season:

• Packers (7th in SBx)

• Falcons (11th in SBx)

• Tampa Bay (3rd in SBx)

• Cincinnati (6th in SBx)

They allowed an average of 0.88 points/min to those four teams, which would rank them 29th in the NFL if carried out for a whole season.

Starting with Thursday Night, three of their next five games are against the Commanders (5th in SBx), the Ravens (1st in SBx), and the Steelers 8th in SBx since Wilson became the starter).

Those 3 games could make or break their season.

On the Washington side, they too have gotten fat against some weaker opponents. four of their last six games have been against:

• Deshaun Watson’s Browns

• Panthers

• Bears

• Giants

Not exactly murderer’s row. In fact, the Commanders have faced the 4th easiest schedule in the entire NFL.

A win Thursday would go a long way to proving this turn-around season to be more than a mirage.

Week 11 Analytics

Top 5 Teams In Need of Environmental Change

1. Dallas Cowboys
   The Cowboys rank 28th in consistency score, 32nd in Momentum Index, and 26th in Margin For Error score. McCarthy has lost the locker room, as they lose the ball in the sun. Time for a change.

2. Chicago Bears
   They just fired Shane Waldron, but we believe the problem lies even higher. When multiple OC’s can’t find production with multiple young and talented QB’s, maybe they aren’t the problem. The Bears are 23rd in Margin For Error, 31st in Momentum Index, and 32nd in Consistency Score. It’s all bad.

3. New York Jets
   They have an expensive, 41 year old quarterback playing like he’s 51. They already fired the head coach, and it’s somehow gotten worse. They’re 21st in Margin For Error, 27th in the Momentum Index, and 28th in consistency score. Hey, maybe it isn’t the coaches? 🤷🏽‍♂️

4. New York Giants
   The Giants are 27th in Margin For Error score, 24th in consistency score, and 13th in the Momentum Index. Daniel Jones just isn’t seeing the field the way he needs to, and there was direct, undeniable evidence of that against the Panthers. This may need to be a player change.

5. Cincinnati Bengals
   The Bengals are 22nd in the Momentum Index, 23rd in consistency score, and 12th in Margin For Erro Score. Joe Burrow is always going to keep them competitive. But Zac Taylor isn’t taking them to the next level evidenced by the week to week regression and inconsistency. This would not be a shocker is Taylor doesn't return if they can’t turn it around.

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Teams

(Points Scored Per Minute of Possession Time)

1. Baltimore Ravens (0.993 points/min)

2. Buffalo Bills (0.963 points/min)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.928 points/min)

4. Detroit Lions (0.914 points/min)

5. Washington Commanders (0.905 points/min)

Top 5 Score Prevention Behavior Teams

(Points Allowed Per Minute of Opponent Possession Time)

1. Denver Broncos (0.443 points allowed/min)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (0.471 points allowed/min)

3. New England Patriots (0.495 points allowed/min)

4. Minnesota Vikings (0.534 points allowed/min)

5. Indianapolis Colts (0.553 points allowed/min)

Top 5 Margin For Error Score

(+/- of Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior, fitted to a scale capped at 100)

1. Buffalo Bills (70.4)

2. Detroit Lions (63.6)

3. Washington Commanders (53.9)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (49.6)

5. Denver Broncos (48.4)

Top 5 Most Improved Offenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Scoring Growth (%))

1. Miami Dolphins (47%)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (38%)

3. Los Angeles Chargers (29%)

4. Detroit Lions (28%)

5. New York Giants (23%)

Top 5 Most Improved Defenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Score Prevention (%))

1. Arizona Cardinals (41%)

2. New England Patriots (35%)

3. Carolina Panthers (27%)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (24%)

5. Washington Commanders (19%)

Top 5 Most Improved Teams Overall

(Week to Week Combined Rate of Improvement in Scoring and Score Prevention Behavior (%))

1. Arizona Cardinals (95.5%)

2. New England Patriots (76.12%)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (59.72%)

4. Miami Dolphins (52.88%)

5. Carolina Panthers (46.59%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Offense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Baltimore Ravens (x1.6)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (x1.6)

3. New England Patriots (x1.7)

4. Houston Texans (x1.7)

5. Green Bay Packers (x1.7)

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Defense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Baltimore Ravens (x1.4)

2. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.4)

3. Atlanta Falcons (x1.5)

4. Los Angeles Rams (x1.5)

5. San Francisco 49ers (x1.5)

Top 5 Most Consistent Teams Overall

(Combined Likely Multiple of Variation in a Team’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Baltimore Ravens (x1.5)

2. Los Angeles Rams (x1.7)

3. San Francisco 49ers (x1.7)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.7)

5. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.85)

Top 5 Toughest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Houston Texans (45.5)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (38.35)

3. New York Jets (36.68)

4. Carolina Panthers (36.05)

5. Tennessee Titans (35.768)

Top 5 Easiest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2. Los Angeles Chargers

3. Buffalo Bills

4. Washington Commanders

5. New England Patriots

Top 5 Margin For Error Scores

Strength of Schedule Adjusted

(Calculated by weighting a team’s Margin For Error Score against their Strength of Schedule Score)

1. Detroit Lions

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Top 5 Total Team Behavior Score

(Weighted combining of Margin For Error Score, Momentum Index, Consistency Score, and Strength of Schedule)

1. Philadelphia Eagles

2. Arizona Cardinals

3. Detroit Lios

4. Baltimore Ravens

5. Washington Commanders

FULL 32 Team Rankings

(Full Rankings in each of the major behavior categories, shown with their offensive and defensive scores as well)

Power Rankings

(Margin For Error Score)

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