Week 10 Football Behavior Guide

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We’ve hit on on 64% of our picks shared in this newsletter so far in the 2024 season (Shoutout Pigeon Picks+ Subscribers !!!).

And our quest to keep it going through Week 10 starts in Germany with Sunday Morning football.

If you missed the rankings and analytics that’s make up these projections, check out our latest NFL Rankings post that went out Thursday…

Week 10 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Morning Football

We like the Giants to win outright in what should be an ugly game that may have Germany think we’re still mad about World War II. The Panthers sit dead last in every behavioral category meant to measure strength:

• Margin For Error Score

• Strength of Schedule-adjusted Margin For Error Score

• Total Team Behavior Score

They are improving week over week, but perhaps not enough to win back to back games. Though, the Giants offense is among the least consistent in the game and will be without Darius Slayton. Only putting a half unit on this one.

Sunday Night Football

You may ask yourselves why we wouldn't;t place a bet in this game. The red-hot Lions are projected to beat a so-so Texans team by way more than what the spread in this game is.

That’s what gives us pause. Why is that line so low? There isn’t one behavioral analytic that suggests the Texans have a better than 10% chance to win. This eerily reminds us of Bills vs. Ravens in Week 4.

We aren’t ones for superstition but I’d love to know what the books know that we don’t. We project a healthy Lions win, but recommend staying away from the spread on this one.

Monday Night Football

The Dolphins offense looks like an NFL offense against since the return of the Tua. And yet, even if we took just the Scoring Behavior Rates with him at QB and plugged them into our model, they would still be projected to lose to the Rams.

And not to be outdone, the Rams are themselves getting back to relative full health. They’ve looked like a different offense with Puca back, and now get reinforcements on the offensive line, including Football Behavior guy Steve Avila at guard.

We think the Rams win this, and are likely to cover the spread.

Pigeon Pick of the Week

No video this week, but all the same confidence boxes checked.

• Both teams have relatively flat celeration trends so potential for big outlier is reduced

• Both teams rank in the top 10 for Consistency Score, narrowing the range of possible outcomes (SF is 3rd, TB is 8th)

• Both teams trends match up with their opponents opposing side of the ball

• 49ers should be favored, but we think Bucs give them a pretty good scare

All Week 10 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 10 Pigeon Picks

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