NFL Rankings: Week 10

We are in Week 9 of the NFL season for 2024 and teams are really beginning to find their identities, and their behavior is leading the way.

We went 8-3 in our picks last week, brining us to 78-45-3 (verified by Pikkit) on the 2024 NFL season to date. Don’t forget to sign up for Pigeon Picks+ to take FULL advantage of what we have to offer!

At this point of the season, we are going to provide not just updated analytics, but environmental evaluations of some teams.

For example, a team underperforming in Margin For Error Score, while regressing in the momentum index and/or in consistency score might be in need for a significant environmental change, such as coaching or player personnel.

The New Orleans Saints were one of those teams, and this week they did in fact fire head coach Dennis Allen. We’ll keep you posted of teams in similar situations.

Now, our Thursday Night Football Prediction followed by the latest rankings:

Thursday Night Football Prediction

• Betting on a Thursday Night game, in division, is always risky. Be warned

• If we were to place a bet we would take Ravens with the spread

• This is largely due to the Bengals defense being leaky in regressing in the wrong direction, combined with the inconsistency of the Bengals offense

• Bengals have to get above 0.8 points/min and win the time of possession to have a chance

Week 10 Rankings

Top 5 Offense Scoring Behavior

_{(Recorded in points scored per minute of possession time)}

1. Buffalo Bills (0.999)

2. Baltimore Ravens (0.969)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.96)

4. Washington Commanders (0.935)

5. Detroit Lions (0.91)

Top 5 Defense Score Prevention Behavior

_{(Recorded in points allowed per minute of opponent possession time)}

1. Los Angeles Chargers (0.456)

2. Denver Broncos (0.494)

3. Indianapolis Colts (0.535)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (0.539)

5. Buffalo Bills (0.544)

Top 5 Margin For Error Score

_{(Recorded as the differential between a team’s scoring behavior and score prevention behavior, put to scale out of 100)}

1. Buffalo Bills (75.5)

2. Detroit Lions (64.7)

3. Washington Commanders (58)

4. Minnesota Vikings (51.4)

5. Indianapolis Colts (47.5)

Top 5 Most Improved Offenses

_{(Recorded using the week to week celeration rate (%) of a team’s scoring behavior rate)}

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (55%)

2. Baltimore Ravens (44%)

3. Miami Dolphins (44%)

4. Atlanta Falcons (40%)

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (39%)

Top 5 Most Improved Defenses

_{(Recorded using the week to week celeration rate (%) of a team’s score prevention behavior)}

1. Washington Commanders (37%)

2. Arizona Cardinals (28%)

3. Los Angeles Rams (24%)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (24%)

5. Baltimore Ravens (23%)

Top 5 Teams in the Momentum Index

_{(Recorded using the combination of the celeration rates (%) of both sides of the ball)}

1. Baltimore Ravens (87.2%)

2. Detroit Lions (78.02%)

3. Los Angeles Rams (59.72%)

4. Arizona Cardinals (54.29%)

5. Philadelphia Eagles (53.12%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

_{(Recorded using the bounce rates (rate of potential performance variation up or down) of a team’s week to week scoring behavior performances, lower numbers mean more stable)}

1. New York Jets (50%)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (60%)

3. Houston Texans (60%)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (60)

5. Green Bay Packers (70%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

_{(Recorded using the bounce rates (rate of potential performance variation up or down) of a team’s week to week score prevention behavior, lower numbers mean more stable)}

1. Kansas City Chiefs (40%)

2. Las Vegas Raiders (40%)

3. Atlanta Falcons (40%)

4. San Francisco 49ers (50%)

5. Atlanta Falcons (50%)

Top 5 Football Behavior Consistency Score

_{(Recorded as a combination of bounce rates from both sides of the ball)}

1. Kansas City Chiefs (50%)

2. San Francisco 49ers (75%)

3. Las Vegas Raiders (85%)

4. Los Angeles Rams (85%)

5. Seattle Seahawks (85%)

Top 5 Toughest Schedules

_{(Recorded as the average Margin For Error score among all opponents)}

1. Houston Texans (43.48)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (40.33)

3. Carolina Panthers (39.55)

4. New York Giants (39.487)

5. Los Angeles Rams (36.562)

Top 5 Total Team Behavior Score

_{(Recorded as a weighted combination of Margin For Error Score, Momentum Index, Consistency Score and Strength of Schedule, on an uncapped scale (higher the number, the better))}

1. Detroit Lions (124.61)

2. Baltimore Ravens (87.58)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (84.14)

4. Arizona Cardinals (82.69)

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (78.26)

Teams In Need Of Change

And Full Rankings

Looking at the behavior of all NFL teams and their surrounding performance environments, this deep into the season we can begin to discern who may be in need of a major change moving forward into 2025. This could be a coaching change, coordinator change, or roster upheaval.

Coaches want teams that perform high on both sides of the ball (Margin for Error Score), get better as the season goes on (Momentum Index), and remain consistent (Consistency Score), executing the plan efficiently.

Here are the top 5 teams we’re watching for such changes based on performance environment.

Top 5 Teams To Watch For Environmental Changes

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