4-Down Territory: Russ To Pitt Is Bigger Deal Than You Think

The 4️⃣ Most Important Things You Need To Know About The NFL Today:

1st Down: Kirk Cousins Fixes Falcons

We approve of the the Falcons signing Kirk Cousins. This team could be dangerous if they had competant QB play…

…though, you wouldn’t know it because of just how much their very poor QB play has held them back.

Below, we look at the behavioral analytics of the 2023 Falcons, and the Vikings with Cousins, to support our belief that if they sign him in Free Agency, the NFC South becomes one of the most interesting divisions in football.

Catch up on all of the free agency news with Sportews by simply clicking below!

2nd Down: Russell Wilson Signs With Steelers

Late Sunday night it was reported, by Wilson, that he was indeed signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Bur I see the Steelers signing Russ in a very similar light as the Falcons pursuing Kirk Cousins. Its a friendly environment for a team in need of stability

We’ll be doing an FULL analytics deep dive on what this means for both the Broncos and the Steelers in Thursday’s newsletter for PREMIUM subscribers only, so don’t miss out on our annual subscription price, only $50 for the whole year for new subscribers with this early bird discount. The sub that actually can pay for itself!

In 2023, Premium Subscribers who used our picks, and bet a total of $75 or more, made their money back and turned a profit!

One Nugget:

• Wilson was part of a better-than-assumed Denver team in 2023, and is an instant upgrade for that offense.

  • If Denver’s 2023 Offenisve behavior was paired with Pittsburgh’s 2023 defensive behavior, they would move from being ranked 24th in Magrin For Error Score to ranked 14th

  • Even more meaningful for Total Team Behavior Score, and what that means for 2024!

3rd Down, $ Down: Baker Mayfield Back With Bucs

On March 3rd, we oultined a series of suggestions for the Buccaneers to engage in this off-season in order to build on last year’s momentum. It included a simple edict:

Protect The Environment.

Two of the things we outlined they have accomplished, made official now with the re-signing of Baker Mayfield. The Bucs signed him to 3-year, up to $115 Million contract.

This is a fair market value for Mayfield, and the Bucs get to build on a very clear momentum that they established in 2023. Too many of the behavioral analytics indicate that this was more than a fluke.

With Evans back, and now Mayfield, the Bucs can begin integrating into the new offenisve environment they will be in follwing the departure of David Canales, with two less changes to overcome.

Going For It On 4th: Chris Jones Signs MEGA Deal With KC

We could have used this spot to talk about the running back movement, but thats mostly just click bait. It doesn’t matter all that much. The teams that made moves (Philly, Green Bay) have bigger issues than the running game anyway.

Also could have talked about the Giants trading for Brian Burns and giving in to a MASSIVE contract. That too though seems like a bad idea. Burns has significant weaknesses to his game at the point of attack and the Giants have so many issues on offense they could have spent that money on.

More important than any of that, over the weekend, Chris Jones signed a mega deal to stay with the Chiefs for 2024 and beyond. In 2023, the Chiefs has the best score prevention defense in the NFL in terms of Score Prevention Behavior.

Bringing back their best, and most disruptive, defensive player will go a long way towards maintaining that. Jones staying, and signing Coach Spags to an extension ensures that two of the most important core pieces of that environment stay together.

If you’re wondering why Jones and not Sneed, the great Trey Wingo had a brilliant (and true) line on Threads: Sneed erases one pass catcher on the opposing team. An elite interior pass rusher can eliminate all of them.

The chase for a 3-peat is on!