Todd Bowles Should Have Been Coach Of The Year

If You’re Short On Time…

• Todd Bowles Should Have Been Coach Of The Year

• The Bucs Have Strong Behavior Scores

  • 2023 Margin For Error Rankings

  • 2023 Improvement Index Rankings

  • 3rd in Consistency Score

  • 2023 Total Team Behavior Score Rankings

• However, They Face Potential Environmental Disruption

1. Todd Bowles Should Have Been Coach Of The Year

Lets begin with a reminder: The Buccaneers were supposed to be rebuilding in 2023, a year removed from backing into the playoffs with a losing record by way of playing in the NFC South.

Following that season, ending when they were bounced in the wildcard round, they underwent CONSIDERABLE environmental changes:

• Tom Brady retired following a tumultuous season for him on and off of the field that impacted the entire team

• They overhauled the entire offenisve coaching staff, menaing new schemes, philosophies, strategies, etc.

• Difficult Mike Evans negotiations

Those changes were for the best when ignoring that their making the playoffs in 2022 was an outlier event, and examining the totality of their 2022 season:

• Ranked 22nd in Total Team Behavior Score

  • 18th in Margin For Error

    • 23rd in Scoring Behavior Rate

  • 20th in Consistency Score

  • 32 in Improvement Index

The offense was a noteable weak spot for Tampa, with a x3.4 bounce rate and scoring less points than they allowed per minute, which is glaring when you consider they had a top 10 Score Prevention Behavior defense. The environmental changes made by Bowles were necessary, and they paid off.

Many wrote the Bucs off for dead in the preseason. Baker Mayfield comes in as a journeyman bridge, many assumed. Thier offensive coorindator of the previous four years, Byron Leftwich, was fired, and the vast majority of the offenisve staff along with him. Enter David Canales.

In one season the Buccaneers:

• Were the most regressed team during the 2022 season, ranking 32nd in the Improvement Index, and then jumped to the 10th most improved team over the course of the 2023 season.

  • That was the 3rd best jump in Improvement Index for any team between 2022 and 2023.
    

• They ranked 7th in Margin For Error, up from 23rd.

  • That was the fifth biggest climb in that metric of any team in the NFL year over year.
    

• They ranked 20th in Consistency Score in 2022, and jumped to being the 3rd most consistent team in 2023.

  • That was the fifth best year to year improvement from 2022 to 2023.

They are the only team to rank in the top five for improvement in all three major categories from 2022 to 2023. The Head Coach sets the performance environment for the entire team. It is his staff that he fires and/or hires. It is his responsibility to ensure all strategic visions in all three phases are aligned.

Year over year, no coach did a better job of improving on their environment and translating it to success than Todd Bowles. Oh, and how did their 2023 season end? a winning record and a playoff win over last year’s conference champs. Bowles deserved the award.

2. Losing Canales Could Hurt

When you achieve such monumental year over year growth and improvement, you’d love for the environment you put together to stay in tact so you can build on it. Let’s be clear, despite all of the growth, the Bucs are not a Super Bowl contender and need to continue to grow.

Well, that got increasingly harder when division rival Carolina hired their offenisve coordinator, who had only been their for 2023 and was a large driver of the growth, as their new head coach. It is one thig to lose your new coordinator after one season, its another to lose him to a division rival.

Not being able to directly build on the momentum they established in 2023, and immediately undergoing another MAJOR environmental change could be too tall a task for Bowles to overcome a second year in a row. Their success will depending on the symbioisis of new offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Baker Mayfield.

That may be the best thing about this hire, and evidence of Bowles undertsanding the importance of continuity. Coen was with Mayfield in Los Angeles. We shall see if they can get off to a fast start.

3. The Future of Mike Evans

This was an issue last season as well, and it looks like this season, Evans will get a chance t hit the market, making his return even more cloudy.

Evans is a first ballot hall of fame wide receiver and a life-long Buccaneer. It cannot be overstated what that means to the ongoing building of culture, especially as the team brings in younger players. Not only is he an extremely dependable player, he is a leader.

Environment is more than just contonuity. It’s control on our behavior is a constant give and take with everything we interact with. Having strong leaders, with a hall of fame resume to boot, is something not every environment has.

He’s coming off yet another 1,000 yard season and still has plenty left in the tank to bridge the Buccaneers along this growth phase they find themselves in.

If he does not return, that is a multi-layered hole to fill that goes beyond the stat sheet. What effect that could have is one to keep an eye on.

4. The Future of Baker Mayfield

This is interestig on a number of levels. Mayfield was brought in to be a one year rental. No one, including Todd Bowles and Jason Licht, thought he would be a potential long term answer for them at the league’s premiere position (I submit to you as evidence that he was signed to a 1-year, $4,000,000 contract).

It’s likely he could command a $120,000,000 contract (according to Sportrac projections) over four years. The Bucs have a difficult decsion to make. They must determine:

• If what they saw from Mayfield is sustainable, considering a new offenisve environment with Liam Coen, albeit a familair face. Both the Giants and Seahawks rewarded their 2022 starters with big contracts following one year exceptions to the rule of their careers to that point. Both missed the playoffs in 2023. Is their environment, and is Mayfield, different enough to ignore that anecdote?
  
  OR

• If they should jump into the QB market during the NFL Draft.

There is also the opportunity to do both and to ride the Mayfield train a minimum one more year to attempt at keeping as much continutiy as posisble in order to build on 2023’s momentum.

• 90% of the top 10 most consistent teams in 2023 made the postseason

• 12 of the 16 teams that saw improvements in consistency from 2022 to 2023 made the postseason.

• 13 of the 15 teams that regressed in consistency from 2022 to 2023 missed the playoffs

  • All 15 had major enevironmental disruptions between seasons and in season

Environement matters for our beahvior, and there is something to be said for continutity.