Behavior Analysis

• The Jaguars’ SBx level paired with a modest positive celeration says their scoring-per-minute has been trending up across recent weeks, while the bounce sits in the “predictable to moderately predictable” band—fewer wild swings. Buffalo’s SPBx level has slipped with a slight negative celeration, and a wider bounce window, which means their defensive points-prevention per minute is more volatile. Translating that into plain English: Jacksonville’s offense generally does what it intends to do; Buffalo’s defense hasn’t consistently set the floor.

• Flipping sides, Buffalo’s SBx is still respectable on level but its celeration has flattened, and the bounce is wider than Jacksonville’s SPBx, which has been the Jags’ quiet edge: they limit scoring at a steadier rate with smaller volatility. When we overlay the time-of-possession pair (BPB vs. BPPB), Jacksonville projects to win enough clock on neutral scripts to keep this closer to a possession-control game than a track meet.

• The combined picture supports our 25–18 Jaguars projection: JAX benefits from steadier SPBx and slightly better TOP control, while Buffalo’s path is spurts-dependent (they need explosive drives that exceed their recent celeration trend). Given the Bills’ wider bounce on both sides, the floor is lower for them if early drives stall.

• Finally, volatility: Jacksonville’s envelope is tighter (lower bounces) in the key phases that matter for January football—SPBx and BPPB—so the median outcome has a better chance of “showing up” for them. That’s why our model favors a one-score Jags win with field goals featuring when red-zone drives bend.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

Moneyline

• Jaguars -121 — TAKE (small edge). Our projection has JAX by ~1 score with lower defensive volatility; fair price is close to -125/-130.

Spread

• Jaguars -1.5 (-112) — TAKE (light). Correlated with the ML view; our median margin covers 1.5.

• Bills +1.5 (-108) — PASS. You’re paying juice for a number that loses to the most likely (FG/TD) JAX win conditions.

Total (51, -114/-106)

• UNDER 51 — TAKE (light). Pace/top-of-possession leans control, both red-zone profiles suggest 3s more than 7s, and our projection lands 43. Envelope tops out mid-40s unless Buffalo’s SBx spike shows.

Team Totals

• Bills O/U 25.5 — UNDER (-127) TAKE (light). JAX SPBx steadiness + Bills’ flatter SBx celeration argue Buffalo lands low-20s or less in the median case.

• Jaguars O/U 26.5 — UNDER (-109) PASS/LEAN UNDER. Our median is 25; price is friendlier, but variance late could push 27–28 with short fields—thin edge.

Game Total Field Goals (O/U 3.5, -102/-127)

• OVER 3.5 (-102) — TAKE. Both profiles point to sustained drives but red-zone resistance (JAX SPBx; BUF’s bend-don’t-break when right). At even-ish money, this has solid value.

Winning Margin

• Jaguars by less than 13 (+146) — TAKE. Matches our script and volatility (tight envelope for JAX, wider for BUF).

• Jaguars 1–6 (+300) — SPRINKLE/TAKE (small). Median sits here; number is live if FGs dominate.

• Jaguars 7–12 (+525) — PASS/Sprinkle only. Longer tail; less frequent than 1–6 given anticipated FG trading.

Same-game parlay angles to consider (ask for prices):

• Jaguars ML or -1.5 + Under 51 + Over 3.5 FGs (fits the control/FG script).

• Jaguars ML + Bills TT Under 25.5 (ties JAX SPBx steadiness to BUF’s flatter SBx).

Behavioral Analysis

• The 49ers’ offense (SBx) shows steady, compact behavior: a positive-to-flat celeration and a low bounce band, which means they produce points at a fairly repeatable clip from week to week. That pairs well against Philly’s defense (SPBx), which your sheet shows as more variable, with pockets of red-zone leakage when opponents sustain drives. In plain English: San Francisco is the steadier side when they have the ball, and their “do-what-we-do” approach tends to travel.

• Flip it around and the Eagles’ offense (SBx) hasn’t been as smooth. The celeration you’ve tracked is cooling versus early-season rates, and the bounce is wider—so their scoring shows more week-to-week swing. That runs into a 49ers SPBx profile that’s tight and trending the right way, with a smaller bounce (good) and a mild positive celeration (better). It suggests San Francisco can force Philly into more field-goal decisions and longer third downs.

• On time of possession, your BPB/BPPB rows lean to the 49ers’ side: methodical series, fewer empty possessions, and a defense that shortens drives on the other end. That combination—slightly more ball plus more efficient points per minute—supports a low-20s/teens game script and compresses total scoring.

• Pulling those pieces together, our projection (SF 20, PHI 18) fits the behavioral picture: 49ers’ steady SBx + sturdy SPBx edge out an Eagles offense that’s trending down a notch and is more volatile. Expect long possessions, a field-position game, and a few pivotal red-zone snaps deciding it late.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

• Spread: 49ers +6 (-112) → TAKE
  Our projected margin (SF by ~2) plus the 49ers’ lower bounce gives us cushion against a volatile Philly SBx. +6 captures many realistic outcomes.
  

• Moneyline: 49ers +220 → SPRINKLE / SMALL TAKE
  Model has SF winning outright; at +220 the payoff justifies a smaller stake given road variance.
  

• Total: Under 44.5 (-107/-113) → TAKE (light)
  Both defenses grade better on sustained series, and ToP shapes toward fewer total drives. Our projection (38) leaves room under.
  

• 49ers Team Total 19.5 (-117 Over / -114 Under) → LEAN OVER
  We project ~20; the steadier SBx vs a wider-bounce Eagles SPBx nudges this just over. (Thin edge—price matters.)
  

• Eagles Team Total 25.5 (-117/-114) → TAKE UNDER
  Philly’s cooler celeration + wider bounce versus a compact 49ers SPBx makes 26 a stretch under this script.
  

• Game Total FGs O/U 3.5 (+105 / -128) → TAKE OVER at plus money
  Red-zone suppression + sustained drives point to 3s over 7s showing up enough to clear 3.5 at +105.
  

• Winning Margin (49ers by 1–6 +425; 49ers <13 +235) → FLYER TAKES
  Correlated with our 20–18 call and the low-vol, field-goal-heavy script.

Behavioral Analysis

• Patriots SBx vs. Chargers SPBx. New England’s scoring behavior (SBx) has been grinding upward with steady (sub-explosive) celeration, while Los Angeles’ score-prevention (SPBx) has shown more week-to-week wobble. That combo points to the Pats earning drives the hard way—more sustained possessions than explosives—landing them in the high teens/low 20s.

• Chargers SBx vs. Patriots SPBx. LAC’s offense has flashed but carries a higher bounce profile; New England’s defense trends the other way—SPBx celeration improving and bounce tighter—so the Chargers’ median output compresses. On our sheet this matchup leans to stalled red-zone trips and a few field goals rather than repeated TDs.

• Time of Possession (BPB/BPPB). The Pats’ ball-possession behavior has been more consistent than the Chargers’ prevention, which tilts the snap share toward New England by a few minutes. More snaps + shorter fields = enough chances to clear ~20, even if the game pace feels methodical.

• Range of outcomes. Because the Chargers’ SBx/BPB bounce runs hotter than New England’s SPBx/BPPB, the volatility skews toward LAC spikes (explosive quarters)…but the central tendency still favors the Pats by one score. That aligns with our projection: Patriots 22, Chargers 17.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

Moneyline

• Patriots -197 — TAKE (small). Our 22–17 projection and consistency edge justify a favored ML parlay piece. Juice is heavy; size modestly.

Spread

• Patriots -3.5 (-108) — TAKE (light). Projected margin = 5. Key-number risk (3) exists, but Pats’ ToP edge + LAC red-zone shakiness nudge this over the hook often enough.

• Chargers +3.5 (-112) — PASS. You’re fading our median and the bounce asymmetry.

Total (45.5, -114/-106)

• UNDER 45.5 — TAKE. Projection = 39. Defensive SPBx stability on NE side + situational field goals keep this below mid-40s often.

Team Totals

• Patriots 24.5 (-114/-117) — PASS / slight lean UNDER. Our median (22) sits under, but late-game script could create a 24-ish ceiling; price isn’t generous.

• Chargers 20.5 (-118/-114) — TAKE UNDER (light). Median 17 with higher SBx bounce against a steadier SPBx—good correlation with our Under.

Field Goals

• Game FGs O/U 3.5 (-115/-115) — TAKE OVER. Red-zone suppression + possession football = frequent attempts; 4+ is live.

Winning margins

• Patriots <13 (+112) — TAKE. Matches our one-score script; plus-money for the median band.

• Patriots 1–6 (+250) — SPRINKLE. Strong fit to a 3–6 pt win.

• Patriots 7–12 (+425) — MICRO-SPRINKLE. Secondary band in our envelope.

Same-game stack ideas (if you want more legs):

• Patriots ML + Game Under 45.5 (correlated with our script).

• Chargers TT Under 20.5 + Game FGs Over 3.5 (volatility channels to 3’s, not 7’s).

• Alt total Under 47.5 (better price) if you need a safer ceiling.

Behavioral Analysis

• Houston’s scoring behavior (SBx) has held steadier month-over-month, and their celeration line is either flat-to-slightly-up, which pairs well against a Pittsburgh score-prevention profile (SPBx) that has been solid but not impenetrable. When we blend Houston’s projected SBx (next-week value off the celeration line) with Pittsburgh’s projected SPBx, we land near low-20s production for the Texans. The bounce column (volatility) matters here: Houston are the more “predictable” side on offense—enough to trust a couple of sustained scoring sequences rather than one boom-or-bust drive.

• Flip it, and Pittsburgh’s SBx—helped by their improving run rate and play-action windows—meets a Texans SPBx that trends better than early season but still allows time-consuming drives. The Steelers’ scoring projection rises into the high-teens when we average their celeration-adjusted SBx with Houston’s SPBx, but their bounce is the shakier of the two units; that widens their outcome band and makes sub-20 totals more common if early downs sputter.

• Time of possession tilts slightly toward Houston by process: the Texans’ Ball Possession Behavior (BPB) celeration is stable, and their Ball Possession Prevention (BPPB) has been good at shrinking opponents’ usable minutes. Pittsburgh’s BPB can string 8–10 play drives, but the bounce there is higher—so a penalty or negative play can flip a likely FG into a punt. That “field-goal magnet” profile shows up in this matchup.

• Bottom line: our composite puts this right where you had it—Texans 23, Steelers 20—coming from Houston’s steadier SBx vs. a good, not airtight, Steelers SPBx, with both teams trading long possessions and a handful of red-zone stalls.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations

• Texans ML -162 — TAKE (moderate). Our projection Texans by ~3; ML breakeven ≈ 61–62%. With Houston the lower-bounce offense, ML > spread.

• Texans -3 -106 — LEAN PASS. Number matches our projection; volatility and late FGs make a 1–3 pt margin likely—prefer ML.

• Steelers +3 -114 — PASS. Pricey for a coin-flip cover against a steadier opponent profile.

• Total 38 (o -113 / u -107) — TAKE OVER (light). Our median 43 implies value; bounce on both offenses isn’t extreme, and ToP suggests 8–9 scoring possessions combined.

• Steelers Team Total 17.5 (o -107 / u -125) — TAKE OVER -107. We project ~20; plus price and red-zone downgrade still leaves 18+ as median.

• Texans Team Total 20.5 (o -106 / u -127) — TAKE OVER -106. We project ~23 and Houston’s SBx bounce is the steadier side.

• Game Total FGs 3.5 (-155 / +113) — TAKE OVER -155 (small). Pricey, but both profiles create FG chances (ToP + red-zone resistance).

• Texans win by <13 +104 — TAKE. Fits our distribution (one-score or 10–12 most frequent).

• Texans win by 1–6 +240 — SPRINKLE. Our exact median is Texans by 3; narrow-margin band has meaningful hit rate.

• Texans win by 7–12 +390 — TINY SPRINKLE. Secondary mode if Steelers stall twice in high-leverage spots.

Suggested SGP skeleton (optional, if your book allows): Texans ML + Over 37.5 alt + Steelers 13.5+ alt + Texans 17.5+ TT + Over 2.5 FGs (game). This matches the script: competitive pace, multiple kicks, Houston edges the coin flip.