Wild Card Picks

And Super Bowl Champion Projection

Author

Brett Yarris
January 11, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

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Table of Contents

We have synthesized all of the behavioral data from 2024. We have looked at Consistency Scores, the Momentum Index, Margin for Error Scores, Strength of Schedule scores, and Total Team Behavior Scores.

We used them to project the entirety of the playoffs, and we have projected the most likely Super Bowl champions, something we have accurately projected at this time each year for the last three years, including last year down to the opponent and 60 minute point spread.

We’ll reveal that below along with every Wildcard pick, as well as our annual Pigeon Picks+ Profit Report

Let’s Line It Up!

2024-2025 Annual Profit Report

Overall 2024 Record

  • 153-100-5

    • 60.4% Hit Rate

Overall 2024 Profit (in units)

  • +30.7 units of Profit

    • 3rd consecutive PROFITABLE NFL Season

Overall 2024 ROI%

  • +12.635% ROI

Pigeon Picks Overall Record (2022-2024)

  • 728-422-17

    • 63.3% Hit rate

All stats are tracked 3rd party by Pikkit Sports

Every 2025 Wild Card Pick

Chargers @ Texans

Final Score Projection:

  • 25-20, Chargers def Texans

Pigeon Pick:

  • Chargers ML (-160)

Steelers @ Ravens

Final Score Projection

  • 28-17, Ravens def Steelers

Pigeon Pick

  • Ravens ML (-500)

Broncos @ Bills

Final Score Projection:

  • 27-25, Bills def Broncos

Pigeon Pick:

  • Broncos +8.5 (-110)

Packers @ Eagles

Final Score Projection:

  • 23-22, Packers def. Eagles

Pigeon Picks:

  • Packers +4.5 (-110)

Commanders @ Buccaneers

Final Score Projection:

  • 27-22, Buccaneers def. Commanders

Pigeon Picks:

  • Buccaneers ML (-160)

Vikings @ Rams

Final Score Projection:

  • 24-22, Rams def. Vikings

Pigeon Picks:

  • Rams +3 (-110)

Super Bowl Projection

Who?

Believe me when I tell you, this is not what we expected when we ran the modeling. But, we also didn’t expect it last year when we projected it almost a year ago to the day.

To be precise, we have the Chiefs defeating EITHER the Green Bay Packers OR the Detroit Lions in the Super Bowl.

Why either of those two teams? Well, we run multiple scenarios, and these two teams both appeared as the opponent an equal number of times across scenarios, and were beaten a majority of the time each by the Chiefs.

However, the Lions are also one of only two teams projected to beat the Chiefs in these simulations, depending on how they get there.

And this is where it gets fun.

Why?

These playoffs have more “toss-up” projections than the previous two seasons combined.

In large part this is due to two of the most powerful teams (Bills and Lions), having two of the more inconsistent defenses in the league.

  • Lions Defense ranks 27th in Consistency Score

  • Bills Defense Ranks 21st in Consistency Score

Why does that matter?

Because the outcome of their early playoff games, mostly in the divisional round, will affect the eventual matchups, matchups that may have different projections than what is currently projected.

It could throw everything into flux. Let’s look at an example of what needs to be considered.

How?

The Lions are the most difficult of the playoff teams to project along their likely pathway.

If you don’t include behavior from before their bye week (first 4 games), they project as a totally different defense.

They also have 3 games that would qualify as outliers (far outside their bounce range) like last week. So how do we handle that?

Consider this:

Before last week Lions Defense had allowed teams to score more than 1.3 points ppm in 3 of their last 4 games, and more than 0.8 ppm in 4 of their last 5.

Then Week 18 against the Vikings happens: their best ppm performance since back in November against the Jaguars and Colts, which were by far their two best performances of the season and FAR outside their bounce range.

They allowed just six points to each of them, and both teams low quality competitiveness needs to be considered.

So is Week 18 another outlier?

Here’s why it matters:

If you DO include behavior from before the bye week, and DON’T think of Week 18 as an outlier (so essentially do no checks for environmental context):

They actually project as Super Bowl champs in a projected matchup against the Chiefs, who still would be AFC champs.

IF … you DON’T include behavior from before the bye:

They then project to LOSE to the Packers in the NFCC.

AND, If in addition, you ALSO treat Week 18 as an outlier:

They project to lose to the Rams OR Vikings in the Divisional round.

Five games total, four of them from back in September, and how you weight their importance is the difference between:

The Lions as Super Bowl champs and the Lions as a one and done. The true behavior profile lies somewhere in between.

Now…

These alternate pathways exist for some razor thin margins in other games, but with inconsequential results to an eventual Chiefs championship. The only other one that does is being played this weekend.

The Packers @ Eagles game is the closest point margin we have in any of our wildcard matchups. Just 0.26 points separate the two teams across all potential outcomes.

We have this in favor of the Packers as you saw above. But if that swings to the Eagles, that removes an obstacle for the Lions later on, as we project they would beat Philly in that scenario.

The other game with massive down stream ramifications is a Buffalo vs. Baltimore matchup in the divisional round. If Buffalo pulls off what would be an upset, they would actually overtake the Chiefs in the AFCC and halt their pathway to a championship.

Of course, Buffalo would have to get by Denver in a game we have much closer than the books do. If Denver wins, reinstall KC back into the championship slot.

Conclusion

So, as you see, with so many close projections, it leaves the possibilities super varied. However, with the majority of them ending with the Chiefs at the top.

Here are the five most likely Super Bowl matchups according to our projections:

  1. Chiefs def. Packers (24-23)

  2. Chiefs def. Lions

  3. Lions def. Chiefs

  4. Bills def. Lions

  5. Packers def. Ravens

Sleeper teams who could make a surprise run to at least a conference championship game?

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  2. Denver Broncos

Regardless of what happens, this projects to be an epic postseason with tons of big moments that could cement legacies.

And of course, as the games actually get played we’ll have even more behavioral data as we make our official picks for each round. Stay tuned!