UPDATED: Week 8 NFL Rankings

Week 8 TNF Prediction

We’re actually surprised this is only -2.5 point line for the spread, down from the 3 points we got it at.

• The Rams offense is awful

  • Openly discussing trading Cooper Kipp

  • Have scored less than 20 points in 4 games, and 20 or less in 6 of 7

  • The Vikings defense has held opponents to under 0.6 points per minute in 4 of 6 games

• Yes, the Vikings lost to the Lions, but…

  • The Rams defense has allowed over 0.8 points per minute in 5 of 6 games

  • The Vikings offense has hit that mark in 4 of 6 games, and nearly 5 of 6

EXCLUSIVE: Week 8 NFL Analytics 📈

Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.

Football Behavior is now 61-40-3 on the NFL season through 7 weeks of action, exclusively using these analytics in our predictions…

Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, and Strength of Schedule.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

Color 🔑:

• BLUE: ELITE

• GREEN: Above Average to Good

• RED: Below Average to BAD*

  • With the exception of celeration rates*

  • The are colored red if deemed unsustainable

1. Margin For Error

Margin For Error is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)

MOE now accounts for Behavioral strength of schedule, by taking the average Margin for Error score of opponents faced through the current matchup and weighing that against a team’s own MOE. This is reflected in the top 10 rankings.

_{Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time.} 

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Take Away

• Ravens claw their way to the top

• Buffalo recovering from Week 4 loss to them

• Bucs fall below 1 point per minute

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Take Away

• Denver moves to the top

• Philadelphia benefits from playing Browns and Giants in back to back weeks

• Colts hang tough and get DeFo back

2. Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.

We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. You can start to see these rates stabilize as more performances inform the data and make them more sustainable.

Top 5 Improving Offenses

Take Away

• Steelers continue their climb as Russ enters the lineup

• Lions make a statement in win over top Vikings D

• Baltimore seems to have more left in the tank, but how sustainable is this?

Top 5 Improving Defenses

Take Away

• Again, Eagles inflated from back to back weeks over playing Browns and Giants

• Commanders D continues to show it is for real

3. Consistency Score

This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.

The bigger the number, the LESS predictable a team is and the more varied their performances are. The teams with the lowest numbers are MOST likely to do what we predict them to do.

Said another way, the number you see is the multiple their next performance is likely to fall within, up or down, from their previous performance. The lower that multiple, the more stable their performances.

Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses

Take Away

• Chiefs we’ll see if addition of Hopkins impacts their consistency. Chiefs hope he will!

• Jets wish they weren’t this consistent

• Packers making a statement in nearly every behavioral category

Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses

Take Away

• Chiefs now on top in both (anyone surprised they are 6-0?)

• Ravens defense is consistently awful, but with that offense, haven’t been hurt yet

• Carolina don’t have the offense to survive being as consistently bad as they are

4. Strength Of Schedule

These teams have faced the toughest schedules. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. This calculated by taking the geometric mean of each team’s opponent’s ranking in Margin For Error Score.

Top 10 Toughest Schedules Faced

Take Away

• Texans move into top spot for toughest schedule faced through 7 weeks

• Jets fans can hope the road gets easier than it has been

• Ravens and Chiefs are again the best two teams, doing it against the toughest of schedules

5. FULL 32 Team Rankings

Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams, outlier adjusted

Offensive Power Rankings

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