Week 7 Rankings

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TNF Prediction

We have this as a very close game. It’s a bit risky, but we’re going to put a ½ unit on Denver on the ML.

• Likely Spencer Rattler’s performance in Week 6, while impressive, was in some way aided by the lack of preparation for him

  • This week, he has pro film and…

  • will be missing Olave, Shaheed, and Hill

  • AND going against the 3rd best Score Prevention Defense in the NFL

• The Broncos meanwhile are seeing a 14% week over week increase in score prevention behavior on offense to go with that stellar defense, and…

  • have climbed to 18th in the NFL, up from 28th just several weeks ago

  • and are going up against a defense that is regressing by 123% (!) week over week

EXCLUSIVE: Week 7 NFL Analytics 📈

We’re 54-31-3 on the season overall, relying exclusively on these analytics for all of our picks:

Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.

Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, plus an overall “Top 10” for each.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

All analytics starting Week 6 and beyond are “Outlier adjusted”

• An outlier is defined as any performance that is outside a team’s bounce rate

• That outlier is removed so as not to over skew the data

• An outlier must be outside a team’s bounce range AND not be the last performance recorded for it to be removed.

1. Margin For Error (SoS Adjusted)

Margin For Error (MOE) is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)

Now in our power rankings, MOE scores are adjusted to account for strength of schedule. We do this by looking at the average MOE of the opponents each team has faced through the current week, and adding it to our formula.

NOTE: This does not apply to the rankings of indidiaul sides of the ball like Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior, only in the accumulation of a team;s MOE Score.

_{Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time.} 

🔑:

• BLUE = ELITE

• GREEN = ABOVE AVERAGE - GOOD ENOUGH

• RED = BELOW AVERAGE - BAD

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Take Away

• Tampa Bay moves into Number 1

• Washington has entered the chat…

• Green Bay getting HOT 🥵

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Take Away

• Chargers slip a bit

• Vikings move to number 1

• Steelers remain dominant

Top 10 Power Rankings (MOE adjusted for Strength of Schedule)

Take Away

• Vikings remain in the top spot

• Tampa Bay and Green Bay make moves

• Denver and Indianapolis days may be numbered…

2. Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.

We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. You can start to see these rates stabilize as more performances inform the data and make them more sustainable.

Top 5 Improving Offenses

Take Away

• Caleb Williams and the Bears turning it around continue to climb

• Falcons finding their groove in their new environment

• The analytics suggest benching Fields may be premature for the Steelers

Top 5 Improving Defenses

Take Away

• Playing Cleveland will help anyone’s defense turn things around

• Washington needs to keep this trend going

• Green Bay riding high

Top 10 IMPROVED Teams Overall

Take Away

• Washington’s rate is stabilizing

• Chicago’s will stabilize, but when?

• The Niners need to keep moving in this direction to get back to where they want to go

3. Consistency Score

This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via a multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.

So a bounce rate of “1.2” should be read as “Team X’s next performance is likely to occur within a multiplier of 1.2 in either direction (up or down) of their last performance.”

Or, Team X’s next performance is likely to fall within their what their last performance was, multiplied or divided by 1.2.

The bigger the number, the LESS predictable/stable a team is and the more varied their performances are. The teams with the lowest numbers are MOST likely to do what we predict them to do.

Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses

Take Away

• Chiefs remain on top as they come out of their bye week

• Bears not only improving week over week, but doing it consistently

• Packers coming to life in all behavioral categories on offense

Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses

Take Away

• Chiefs in top 5 on both sides of the ball, to be expected from the 2x defending champs

• Ravens remain steady

Top 10 MOST Consistent Teams Overall

Surprises?

• Ravens, Chiefs are among the most predictable teams to bet on…💰

4. Strength Of Schedule

These teams have faced the toughest schedules. The higher the number, the harder the schedule faced, as that number represents the average Margin For Error score of all of the opponents faced through Week 6.

Top 10 Toughest Schedules Faced

Take Away

• Tampa Bay leads the league in SBx, and has done it facing the toughest schedule so far

• Colts are a surprising top team in our power rankings, but they have done well against good teams

5. FULL 32 Team Rankings

Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams, outlier adjusted

Week 7 Power Rankings

Adjusted for strength of schedule, these are the top performing teams in the NFL relative to Scoring Behavior combined with Score Prevention Behavior:

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.