Week 7 NFL Rankings

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TNF Prediction

We have this as a very close game. It’s a bit risky, but we’re going to put a ½ unit on Denver on the ML.

• Spencer Rattler looked good in his first start BUT…

  • Now there’s film on him and

  • He will be without Olave, Shaheed, and Hill and

  • He will be going against the 2nd best Score Prevention Defense in Football

• Denver is seeing 14% week to week improvement in their own scoring behavior rate that is now up to 17th in the NFL

  • While New Orleans is seeing 123% regression in their week to week score prevention behavior rate

EXCLUSIVE: Week 7 NFL Analytics 📈

Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.

Football Behavior is now 54-31-3 on the NFL season through 6 weeks of action, exclusively using these analytics in our predictions…

Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, plus an overall “Top 10” for each.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

Color 🔑:

• BLUE: ELITE

• GREEN: Above Average to Good

• RED: Below Average to BAD

1. Margin For Error

Margin For Error is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)

MOE now accounts for Behavioral strength of schedule, by taking the average Margin for Error score of opponents faced through the current matchup and weighing that against a team’s own MOE. This is reflected in the top 10 rankings.

_{Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time.} 

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Take Away

• Bucs move to the top

• Commanders remain deadly, so long as they possess the ball

• Packers making moves

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Take Away

• Vikings sit atop the throne

• Denver’s defense is legit

• Chargers drop to number 4

Top 10 Power Rankings (Margin For Error)

Take Away

• Vikings remain in the top spotBucs and Packers make moves

• Buffalo and Detroit are looking to get going

• Reminder this weighs the strength of their schedule as well

2. Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.

We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. You can start to see these rates stabilize as more performances inform the data and make them more sustainable.

Top 5 Improving Offenses

Take Away

• Caleb Williams and the Bears continue to climb!

• Lions finding their mojo after HUGE output vs Dallas

• Steelers making a mistake benching Fields?

Top 5 Improving Defenses

Take Away

• Facing the Browns will help anyone’s defense improve

• Packers doing good things on both sides of the ball

Top 10 IMPROVED Teams Overall

Take Away

• These rates will continue to stabilize

• Bears looking to see where their peak is

• 49ers shaping into form?

3. Consistency Score

This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.

The bigger the number, the LESS predictable a team is and the more varied their performances are. The teams with the lowest numbers are MOST likely to do what we predict them to do.

Said another way, the number you see is the multiple their next performance is likely to fall within, up or down, from their previous performance. The lower that multiple, the more stable their performances.

Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses

Take Away

• Chiefs don’t feel dominant this year, but they know how to be great at what they do week in and week out

• Green Bay climbing with consistency

• Bears, too

Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses

Take Away

• Chiefs only team in top 5 for both…

Top 10 MOST Consistent Teams Overall

Surprises?

• Environmental stability is key, not just for performance, but for betting on performance…💰

4. Strength Of Schedule

These teams have faced the toughest schedules. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. This calculated by taking the geometric mean of each team’s opponent’s ranking in Margin For Error Score.

Top 5 Toughest Schedules Faced

Take Away

• Bucs climb while facing a tough road

• Chiefs look to stay undefeated while taking the hard way

• Colts hanging tough

5. FULL 32 Team Rankings

Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams, outlier adjusted

Power Rankings (Strength of Schedule Adjusted)

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