🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Upsets
This may sound crazy, but we are putting the Eagles on upset alert. Unlikely they face two losses in a row, but believe it or not the Giants behavioral profile matches up well with their division rivals…if they don’t have another outlier performance and turn it over another five times.

The Best and Worst Trending Offenses and Defenses in the League

• Is Indy for real?

• What to make of Seattle…

• Was Week 1 an outlier for the Rams?

SBx (points scored/min of possession)

• Indianapolis — 0.994

• Detroit — 0.941

• Baltimore — 0.938

• Washington — 0.909

• Dallas — 0.907

Most Consistent — SBx Bounce Rates (Lower is better)

• Baltimore — x1.3

• Philadelphia — x1.5

• Washington — x1.6

• Kansas City — x1.6

• Denver — x1.7

SPBx (points allowed/minute of opponent possession)

Top 5 — SPBx (best prevention; lower is better)

• Houston — 0.2691

• Carolina — 0.402

• Denver — 0.466

• Washington — 0.513

•  Indianapolis — 0.517

Most Consistent — SPBx Bounce Rates (Lower is better)

• Arizona — x1.2

• Miami — x1.4

• Philadelphia — x1.5

• Tampa Bay — x1.5

• New York G — x1.6

Thursday Night Football — Philadelphia @ New York Giants

Eagles 18 @ Giants 22
Philly’s offense (SBx ~0.73, modest up-celeration) meets a Giants defense that’s been erratic on the scoreboard but forces long series. NYG’s offense is trending upward in short bursts, and the game likely pivots on red-zone trips—Giants need to trade 7s for 3s defensively. With similar SPBx bands and moderate volatility on both sides, a single short field is a four-point swing. Projection leans Giants by ~4 in a grind. This would be a massive upset if behavior trends continue.

Sunday Night Football — Detroit @ Kansas City

Lions @ Chiefs — DET 25, KC 30

Kansas City’s SBx is tightening with the defense trending down in SPBx (improving), which is their classic October shape. Detroit can absolutely sustain drives, but they need low-red 7s to keep pace with KC’s per-minute finishing. It’s Detroit’s defense we’re worried about. Third-down conversions are the math pivot—who flips two of them wins. Chiefs by one score.

Monday Night Football — Buffalo @ Atlanta, Game 1

Bills @ Falcons — BUF 27, ATL 19

Buffalo’s combo of high SBx and sturdy prevention squeezes the opponent’s margin for error. Atlanta’s grind is viable if they steal a possession and turn Bills’ trips into 3s. Otherwise, Buffalo’s base rate creates steady separation across four quarters. Bills by 6–10, at least.

Monday Night Football — Chicago @ Washington, Game 2

Bears @ Commanders — CHI 24, WAS 28

Washington’s offense has been surging with stable SBx, and they tend to force long prevention time on defense. Chicago’s improvement is tied to early-down success and avoiding negative plays; do that, and it’s a last-possession game. Red-zone trade (7s vs 3s) is the decider. Commanders by four.

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