Week 6 Picks and Predictions

Week 5 Primetime Game Predictions

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Sunday MORNING Football (LONDON)

The Jags got in the win column in Week 5, but it may be short lived. They’ve played the 13th easiest schedule, with heir opponents having an average Margin for Error rank of 18.

The caveat? The Bears have played the easiest schedule so far, with their opponents having an average rank of 29th in Margin for Error. But we like their 10th ranked defense in Score Prevention Behavior, which is trending up with 27% week to week improvement to keep the Jags offense in check as they try to prove Week 5 wasn't an outlier.

Combined with a Chicago offense that has shown significant growth in their scoring behavior these last two week, we like them to win this one, but we shall see if their lack of tough competition bites them in this one.

Sunday Night Football

This is one of our big upsets of the week. When the model gave us this result as the most likely outcome, we dug deep into the analytics to figure out why.

• The Giants have faced the 6th toughest schedule int terms of average rank of opponent Margin for Error

  • The Bengals have faced 4th easiest

• The model rates the Giants week over week defensive improvement in Score Prevention Behavior of 32% as having a good chance to bring the Bengals offense back to earth a little bit

• The model rates the Bengals defensive regression week over week of 179% as having a good chance to allow the Giants offense to do just enough.

We see this as risky because a Giants victory may be the most likely individual outcome, but the Bengals have more pathways to victory, so we are not officially placing a bet in this game, though the model recommends taking the Giants to cover the spread and on the Moneyline.

Monday Night Football

The Jets have undergone one of the second most influential environmental changes that effects performance behavior: a change to the head coach. Rob Slash is out, and it was pretty clear the relationship between him and quarterback Aaron Rodgers was toxic, something I noticed in real time when Rodgers seemed to injure his knee las week against the Vikings.

On the analytics, our model thinks the most likely individual outcome is a Jets victory over a reeling Bills team. But with the change in head coach, we have no idea what effects that will have on this team’s performance behavior. With that large of an unknown, we recommend staying away from this game, regardless of how enticing it may seem.

All Week 5 Score Predictions and Picks

Final Score Predictions

Key 🔑:

• Projected scores represent the geometric means of all possible outcomes inside of each team’s “bounce range”

  • Away/Home projections correspond with Away and Home Team in Blue

• Black Horizontal line up separates each game

• “TOP” is projected Time of Possession for each team, calculated by taking the celeration rates of each teams ball possession behavior

• “Outlier time” is time unaccounted for in the projection that could sway the game in favor of the team that claims it

• Projected Spread is what we think the spread should be based on our projections

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