Week 6 NFL Rankings

PLUS: Thursday Night Football Pick and Prediction

TNF Prediction

We have this as a very close game. It’s a bit risky, but we’re going to put a ½ unit on Seattle on the ML.

  • Seattle lost a heart breaker on an extreme outlier play, a blocked FG returned for a TD.

  • The 49ers got worn down and held scoreless in the second half of Week 5 to lose a close one to the Cardinals.

  • These are NOT last year’s 49ers through five games

    • Removing what looks to be an outlier when they held the lowly Pats to 13 points, their defense is regressing by 20% week to week in points allowed per minute

    • On offense, they are regressing 28% week over week in scoring points per minute, and rank 19th in the NFL in SBx

    • All of this while facing a rather average strength of schedule in terms of Margin for Error

EXCLUSIVE: Week 6 NFL Analytics 📈

Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.

Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, plus an overall “Top 10” for each.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

All analytics starting Week 6 and beyond are “Outlier adjusted”

  • An outlier as defined as any performance that is outside a team’s bounce rate

  • That outlier is removed so as not to over skew the data

  • An outlier must be outside a team’s bounce range AND not be the last performance recorded for it to be removed.

1. Margin For Error

Margin For Error is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)

Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time. 

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Take Away

  • Cincinnati Moves to Number 1

  • Indianapolis remains in the top 5, with Joe Flacco helping keep them there

  • Baltimore finding their groove

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Take Away

  • Minnesota remains the only team to be in the top 5 for both

  • Denver’s defense is legit

  • Chargers coming off a bye week remain Number 1

Top 10 Power Rankings (Margin For Error)

Take Away

  • Vikings remain in the top spot

  • Colts jump into number 2 despite a rough defensive performance, but by removing a Week 2 outlier on offense

  • Saints stay in number 3 on the strength of their first two weeks but that may be quickly coming to an end

2. Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.

We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. You can start to see these rates stabilize as more performances inform the data and make them more sustainable.

Top 5 Improving Offenses

Take Away

  • Caleb Williams and the Bears turning it around!

  • Baltimore finding their identity

  • Can Jaguars repeat their Week 5 performance?

Top 5 Improving Defenses

Take Away

  • This is what should be the best news for Washington fans

  • Packers fans too…

Top 10 IMPROVED Teams Overall

Take Away

  • Washington’s rate is obviously not sustainable, but if it levels off on the high end, look out!

  • Chicago may be on to something

  • Dallas needs this to keep going up

3. Consistency Score

This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.

The bigger the number, the LESS predictable a team is and the more varied their performances are. The teams with the lowest numbers are MOST likely to do what we predict them to do.

Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses

Take Away

  • When adjusted for outliers, Texans, Chiefs and Ravens lead the way

    • Three of last year’s final four teams on the AFC

Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses

Take Away

  • Ravens and Chiefs in the lead for this one too…

Top 10 MOST Consistent Teams Overall

Surprises?

  • Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals are among the most predictable teams to bet on…💰

4. Strength Of Schedule

These teams have faced the toughest schedules. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. This calculated by taking the geometric mean of each team’s opponent’s ranking in Margin For Error Score.

Top 5 Toughest Schedules Faced

Take Away

  • Chiefs are undefeated as they chase a 3-peat, while having faced the toughest schedule thus far through five weeks of the 2024 season

  • The Jets fired their head coach, even though they have a chance for 1st place in the AFC East, and have played the 2nd toughest schedule so far

5. FULL 32 Team Rankings

Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams, outlier adjusted

Week 6 Power Rankings

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