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Week 6 NFL Rankings
PLUS: Thursday Night Football Pick and Prediction
TNF Prediction
We have this as a very close game. It’s a bit risky, but we’re going to put a ½ unit on Seattle on the ML.
Seattle lost a heart breaker on an extreme outlier play, a blocked FG returned for a TD.
The 49ers got worn down and held scoreless in the second half of Week 5 to lose a close one to the Cardinals.
These are NOT last year’s 49ers through five games
Removing what looks to be an outlier when they held the lowly Pats to 13 points, their defense is regressing by 20% week to week in points allowed per minute
On offense, they are regressing 28% week over week in scoring points per minute, and rank 19th in the NFL in SBx
All of this while facing a rather average strength of schedule in terms of Margin for Error
EXCLUSIVE: Week 6 NFL Analytics 📈
Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.
Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, plus an overall “Top 10” for each.
Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.
All analytics starting Week 6 and beyond are “Outlier adjusted”
An outlier as defined as any performance that is outside a team’s bounce rate
That outlier is removed so as not to over skew the data
An outlier must be outside a team’s bounce range AND not be the last performance recorded for it to be removed.
1. Margin For Error
Margin For Error is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)
Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time.
Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses
Take Away
Cincinnati Moves to Number 1
Indianapolis remains in the top 5, with Joe Flacco helping keep them there
Baltimore finding their groove
Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses
Take Away
Minnesota remains the only team to be in the top 5 for both
Denver’s defense is legit
Chargers coming off a bye week remain Number 1
Top 10 Power Rankings (Margin For Error)
Take Away
Vikings remain in the top spot
Colts jump into number 2 despite a rough defensive performance, but by removing a Week 2 outlier on offense
Saints stay in number 3 on the strength of their first two weeks but that may be quickly coming to an end
2. Improvement Index
The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.
We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. You can start to see these rates stabilize as more performances inform the data and make them more sustainable.
Top 5 Improving Offenses
Take Away
Caleb Williams and the Bears turning it around!
Baltimore finding their identity
Can Jaguars repeat their Week 5 performance?
Top 5 Improving Defenses
Take Away
This is what should be the best news for Washington fans
Packers fans too…
Top 10 IMPROVED Teams Overall
Take Away
Washington’s rate is obviously not sustainable, but if it levels off on the high end, look out!
Chicago may be on to something
Dallas needs this to keep going up
3. Consistency Score
This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.
The bigger the number, the LESS predictable a team is and the more varied their performances are. The teams with the lowest numbers are MOST likely to do what we predict them to do.
Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses
Take Away
When adjusted for outliers, Texans, Chiefs and Ravens lead the way
Three of last year’s final four teams on the AFC
Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses
Take Away
Ravens and Chiefs in the lead for this one too…
Top 10 MOST Consistent Teams Overall
Surprises?
Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals are among the most predictable teams to bet on…💰
4. Strength Of Schedule
These teams have faced the toughest schedules. The lower the number, the harder the schedule. This calculated by taking the geometric mean of each team’s opponent’s ranking in Margin For Error Score.
Top 5 Toughest Schedules Faced
Take Away
Chiefs are undefeated as they chase a 3-peat, while having faced the toughest schedule thus far through five weeks of the 2024 season
The Jets fired their head coach, even though they have a chance for 1st place in the AFC East, and have played the 2nd toughest schedule so far
5. FULL 32 Team Rankings
Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams, outlier adjusted
Week 6 Power Rankings
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