WEEK 5 TNF PREDICTION

As we get set for the start of Week 5, starting with our Thursday Night Football prediction between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, we are beginning to see the quieting of the volatility that has persisted in Weeks 3 & 4. Both the remaining volatility for some teams, and sharpening of behavioral patterns by others, have given us reason to enter the second quarter of the NFL season making our expected strategic changes.

What’s In Here?

• Strategic Changes

• TNF Preview

• TNF QB Props (Pigeon Pick Subscribers)

Strategic Changes

For Week 5, we have made significant changes to our betting strategy. As some teams begin to round into shape, and others maintain high levels of volatility (Looking at you Dolphins and Giants), we will begin putting the Pigeon Picks model to full use by being strategically selective of the bet types we use, and the way we use them.

What you will see:

• Diminished use of Dutching through Week 8

  • Why? High levels of volatility remain following Weeks 3 & 4. We want to give teams more time to shape their expected behaviors. There has also been an exponentially inordinate amount of defensive touchdowns and safeties (plays that only occurred 0.001% and 0.004% of the time in 2022). Those outliers have repeatedly taken us from dutching wins, to dutching losses.

  • Example: Dolphins win by 50 in Week 3, then give up nearly 50 in Week 4. First team to ever lose the week after winning by 50 points

  • Example: There were 13 safeties in the NFL in ALL of 2022. Weeks 3 & 4 had four safeties alone.

  • What is Dutching?

• Increased use of Alternate Spreads

  • Why? The Pigeon Picks Model has made in-roads into the 2023 behavioral patterns of many of the 32 teams. As such, there is value to be found by safer alternate spreads based on the final score projections from the model, that maintain at least a 40% ROI

• Increased use of Round Robin Betting?

  • Why? Pairing our Alternate Spread bets with round robin betting allows us to double dip on hidden value found in the final score projections. We bet the Alt. Spreads straight, and then put them in a Round Robin for increased chance at profit.

  • What Is Round Robin Betting?

Week 5 TNF Preview

The Bears may be the most dysfunctional organization in the sport right now. They are going against the team that until recently, also could have made a claim to that title….and we get them both on TNF. The Bears defense is a disaster. The Commanders offense is all over the place. What to make of TNF in Week 5? Here’s how the model sees it.

• Week 5 Thursday Night Football Pick, Prediction

Week 5 TNF QB Props

Justin Fields

• Passing Yards Projection

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