🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Rookie QB’s
Jaxon Dart came in and Giants got their first win and a sustainable behavior plan. Can Gabriel do that for Cleveland?

49ers @ Rams

DUE TO TECHNIAL DIFFICULTIES, THIS IS GOING OUT AFTER THIS GAME HAS BEEN PLAYED.

Pre-Game Analysis: The contrast is clean: San Francisco’s structured, low-bounce SBx (~0.65) and tightening SPBx (~0.58, trending down) versus a Rams offense with the higher finishing rate (SBx ~0.80) and long, patient scripts (~29:51 TOP; ~30:02 prevention TOP). If LA keeps drives on schedule and finishes in the low red zone, their possession control shows up on the board. The 49ers’ path is explosives plus red-zone defense—force field goals and steal a possession with field position. Because both teams live in controlled tempo, one busted coverage or short field is a four-point swing.

• Projection: 49ers 19, Rams 27

• Actual: 49ers 26, Rams 23 (OT)

What we got Wrong: We nailed the Rams behavior. We projected 27 points, and while they scored 23, they left exactly four points on the field with both a missed FG and a missed XP.

The 49ers over performed on the score board, but we nailed their scoring baheavior rate. They scored 26 points in 40:04 of possession time, which is right at their ~0.65 points per minute of possession average for the season.

They behaved in a way that we had outlined for them to win:

• They had an explosive play on their opening touchdown drive (35 yard pass to Bourne)

• They capitalized on the missed FG by LA, taking over at their own 43 and turning it into three points of their own.

Patriots @ Bills

New England arrives with a rising SBx (~0.63, low bounce) and a defense whose SPBx has trended down, which is how they turn neutral scripts into one-score games. Buffalo counters with a premium SBx (~1.17) and sturdy SPBx (~0.52), plus longer prevention series (~31:42 TOP) that squeeze opponent efficiency. The hinge is red zone: if the Pats keep Buffalo kicking, their structure can compress variance late. If the Bills hit two explosives without stalling in the low red, the per-minute finishing gap widens.

Projection: Patriots 20, Bills 25.

Chiefs @ Jaguars

This is rising SBx vs ball control: Kansas City’s SBx ~0.77 (low bounce) and improving SPBx (~0.60, trending down)against Jacksonville’s efficient SBx ~0.69 with ~31:59 TOP and long prevention asks (~28:01). JAX wants a grind where every snap matters; KC wants to cash explosives and avoid bogging down inside the 20. The tactical hinge is third-down/low-red sequencing—conversions for KC flip TOP math, stops for JAX turn it into a last-possession game. Special teams and short fields are magnified in this tempo.

 Projection: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20.

Closest / Most Entertaining — Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

This one pops because the profiles clash in all the fun ways: Tampa’s control-and-finish shape (SBx ~0.72, ~31:09 TOP) versus Seattle’s pop-and-pace arc (SBx ~0.81, ~28:05 TOP). The Seahawks have the slight finishing edge and a prevention profile that makes opponents work (Def TOP ~31:21, SPBx ~0.53), but Tampa’s steadier volatility keeps it inside one score late. If Seattle lands two explosives without stalling in the low red zone, the home side nudges clear; if not, the Bucs’ sustained TOP can grind this to a coin flip. Watch the red-zone trade: Seattle’s chunk plays vs. Tampa’s “make you snap it again” philosophy. Projection leans Seattle 25–21, but a single short field can swing it.

Runner Up —Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

Everything here screams drama: the Colts bring a top-end SBx (~0.90) and real time control (~31:41 TOP), while Las Vegas counters with a prevention-led profile (SPBx ~0.73) that drags games into late-possession tennis. Volatility sits in the “live ball” zone (LV bounce ~0.067 vs IND ~0.045), so one special-teams play or fourth-down swing flips the script. Indy wins the clean, on-schedule version; Vegas wins the scramble with field-position wins and a couple of explosives. Expect both coordinators to chase red-zone leverage—Indy to cash long drives, Vegas to force kicks. Projection tilts to Raiders 33–30, but it’s a true last-possession game.

Become a paying subscriber of Pigeon Picks+ to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • Game-Changing NFL Betting: Insights Backed by Behavior Science For EVERY Game
• • Exclusive Content
• • Proprietary Analytics and Rankings
• • So Much More!