Week 4 TNF Recap

Week 4 got here just in time to get us further into the black on the 2023 season. Last night’s game between the Lions and Packers was a profitable one for Football Behavior, and hopefully for you too!

What’s In Here?

• Educational Resources

• TNF Recap

Educational Resources: Round Robin Betting

As we get further into the 2023 season and we accumulate sharper behavioral data on the 32 NFL teams, we will continue to be more strategic with our betting, specifically with the types of bets we place.

The name of the game is to minimize risk and secure profit. Our Pigeon Picks model helps us minimize risk with its predictions. Using those predictions, we can further minimize risk with the bet types we select. One we will be using in Week 4 is the Round Robin Bet.

Here is everything you need to know:

• What Is Round Robin Betting?

• What Is Dutch Betting?

• How Do Use Sports Betting Models?

Week 4 TNF Recap

Rebounding from Week 3 was very important and we started Week 4 nicely with a nearly perfect TNF. Here is how we did:

• Projected Score: Lions 21 (❌), Packers 20 (✅)

  • Actual Score: Lions 34, Packers 20

• Record On Bets Placed

  • 3-1

    • Lions ML ✅

    • Packers +16.5 (Live)✅

      • We placed this bet live based on the model’s projection and the early scoring pace of the Lions being seen as an outlier likely to slow down.

      • It did. At the end of the first quarter they had an SBx of 1.5 points per minute of possession time. They finished with an SBx of 0.9, a 35% regression

    •  Live SGP Packers +16.5 & Lions -10.6 ✅

      • We placed this bet live in accordance with the same reasoning as above.

    • Dutching Winning Margins ❌

      • Lions 1-6

      • Lions 7-12

      • Packers 1-6

  • ROI:

    • +48.65%

    • Profit of +2.9 units

• Receipts:

  • Week 4 Thursday Night Football Prediction

  • Pikkit