🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Ravens
If they lose this week they would be the first team since we’ve started tracking with a 0.9 SBx or higher and only have win a quarter into the season.

The Best and Worst Trending Offenses and Defenses in the League

• What to make of Baltimore and Detroit?

• Panthers Defense and Falcons offense shutout caveat…

• The Dolphins continue to not be good on either side

SBx (points scored/min of possession)

• Baltimore — 1.291

• Indianapolis — 0.970

• Buffalo — 0.966

• Detroit — 0.895

• Pittsburgh — 0.856

Bottom 5 — SBx

• Atlanta — 0.183

• New York G — 0.414

• Houston — 0.436

• Cleveland — 0.494

• New England — 0.519

SPBx (points allowed/minute of opponent possession)

Top 5 — SPBx (best prevention; lower is better)

• Carolina — 0.224

• Seattle — 0.474

• Minnesota — 0.476

• Green Bay — 0.495

• Washington — 0.498

Bottom 5 — SPBx (higher allows more scoring)

• Dallas — 0.964

• Detroit — 0.956

• Tennessee — 0.936

• Chicago — 0.898

• New York J — 0.896

Ball Possession Behavior

Top 5 — Time of Possession (Week 4 snapshot)

• Indianapolis — 32:55

• Philadelphia — 32:38

• Los Angeles C — 32:17

• Jacksonville — 31:49

• Carolina — 31:21

Bottom 5 — Time of Possession (Week 4 snapshot)

• Cincinnati — 26:36

• Baltimore — 26:40

• Buffalo — 26:44

• Seattle — 26:44

• Minnesota — 26:57

Closest / Most Entertaining — Baltimore at Kansas City

Baltimore brings the league’s most explosive SBx (1.29) into a chess match with KC’s disciplined SPBx (0.55)—that’s elite-on-elite. On the other side, KC’s offense (SBx 0.69) faces a Ravens prevention unit (SPBx 0.90) that can bend. Both teams play clean situational ball, but their early-season bounce levels leave room for momentum swings. With possession edges modest (BAL a bit quicker; KC a bit steadier), this profiles as a fourth-quarter, high-leverage finish. The model calls it 24–24(with a slight rounding edge to KC): margins razor-thin, one explosive play or takeaway decides it.

Most Predictable (Stability) — New Orleans at Buffalo

Buffalo’s profile is classic: top-tier SBx (~0.97) with solid prevention, and a stability signature that travels. New Orleans has improved a touch offensively (SBx ~0.52), but SPBx has leaked (~0.87), which is a tough ask against the Bills’ finishing. Combined bounce and celeration point to narrower variance and a durable edge even if pace shifts. That’s why the projection (30–18 BUF) is confident: the behavior stack aligns across multiple lenses. Unless turnovers tilt heavily, this plays to form.

The Giants’ offense has been bottom-five by SBx (0.414) with high volatility (SBx Bounce 4.7) yet positive celeration (+3.37)—a classic “oscillate with upside” signature. Starting Dart is a behavioral bet: compress time to explosives, accept some natural variance, and raise the per-minute scoring mean. A rookie’s quick-trigger verticality can also reduce the negative drive strings that waste possession time. In short, the move fits the data: chase higher-value possessions, not longer ones, to unlock the offense.

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