Week 4 MNF Prediction

Week 4 finishes up tonight on Monday Night Football, with the Giants taking on the Seahawks. Week 4 proved to be a bit more stable than Week 3, but some teams remain increasingly volatile, with the Giants being one of them.

What’s In Here?

• Week 5 Strategy Preview

• SNF Recap

• MNF Prediction

• MNF QB Props (Pigeon Picks Subscribers Only)

Week 5 Strategy Preview

We are almost through the most volatile part of the NFL season as teams continue to search for their identities. As such we will continue to be even more selective in not just the bet types we place, but also on the games we bet on altogether.

With bounce rates (What makes up a “risk report”) coming into focus, if we see a team as being too volatile, we may elect to not place a bet on them at all, since the chance for them to produce an outlier performance is too great. Typically we look for a stable bounce rate between x1 and x2.5. Beyond that is when we start to use discretion on a case by case basis.

As always, this will always be noted in all articles and Pigeon Picks. Likewise, we will be increasing our betting unit size by 17.48%. This is our ROI in September, so we will roll that into October and seek to compound our profit opportunities.

We’ll also be putting a heavier focus on Round Robin bets, while pulling slightly back on Dutching. Here’s everything you need to know about how those bets work, and what some of those terms mean:

• What Is Round Robin Betting?

• What is Dutch Betting?

• Glossary Of Key Terms (Like Bounce Rate)

Week 4 SNF Recap

We almost had a near perfect score projection in the Chiefs vs. Jets Sunday Night Football matchup. One theme that has carried through the first four weeks is underdogs really taking advantage of the extra possessions turnover present. That rang true in this one as well.

We projected Chiefs win 22-10.

They won 23-20. We nearly nailed the Chiefs final score.

We missed on the Jets by 10 points, and the above theme demonstrated why. The Jets were gifted three extra possessions by the Chiefs:

• Two interceptions

• Safety

They turned one of those interceptions into a touchdown and a two-point conversion (8 points), and the safety gave them two points.

Those points were scored on possessions the Jets were not supposed to have, and ended dup being the exact difference in our score projection for them, and how they actually did.

Week 4 MNF Prediction

The Giants are the epitome of why we need to begin strongly considering bounce rate. Through three weeks, theirs sits at x6.3. They are highly unstable on offense, and the presents some risks to bettors in this matchup, especially going up against the Seahawks defense. Here’s how we see it:

• Week 4 MNF Pick

MNF QB Props

Geno Smith

• Projected Passing Yards

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