Week 3 TNF Recap

The Giants hung tough for the first quarter of last night’s Thursday Night Football. However, the inevitable came storming in like Thanos. As we said they would, the Giants fell into a hole they would not be able to get out of.

What’s In Here?

• Thursday Night Football Model Recap

• Our Favorite betting Strategy

• Changes In Our Betting Approach

Thursday Night Football Recap

Projected Score:

49ers 30 | Giants 20

Actual Score:

49ers 30 | Giants 20

What Happened?

• The 49ers performed exactly as predicted. The Giants were unable to produce any outliers in their favor to alter the 49ers expected outcome.

• The 49ers produced one outlier, the tipped interception on New York’s penultimate drive, that prevented the Giants from having one last opportunity to hit their expected score.

How’d The Pigeon Picks Model Do?

We did not place a bet on the moneyline or against the spread in this game, though we projected a 49ers win by 10+ points and that happened.

We dutched three winning margins, and we hit.

• 49ers 7-12

• 49ers 13-18✅

• 49ers 19-24

That produced an ROI of +74.1% and a +2.2 unit profit

What Is Dutching?

Dutching is our favorite betting strategy based on the behavioral predictions from our betting model. We love it because it helps us account for outlier events with in the behavioral outcomes we predict.

Dutching allows us to spread the risk, and better score a profit. Learn how the strategy is used, and specifically, how we at Football Behavior utilize it as our most profitable betting strategy:

• What Is Dutching?

Changes In Our Betting Behavior

Transparency is the most important factor in sports betting advice. As such, anytime we make changes to our approach or strategy, we will always notify our subscribers about them.

Like any behavior change, consequences applied to previous behavior can alter or change future behavior. Well, the consequences to our previous behavior have been quite rewarding. As such, we want to keep being rewarded so we are shaping our betting behavior even further.

Why Are We Making Changes?

As the Pigeon Picks Model continues to add behavioral data it continues to get sharper. As the model gets sharper it allows us to make more strategic choices.

Our goal at Football Behavior is two-fold:

1. Educate people on how to view football through a behavior analytic lens

2. Teach people how to use that education to MAKE A PROFIT sports betting.

Making a profit is the name of the game. Being sharper and better informed allows us to be more strategic and selective. Making and protecting our profits is the priority.

What Are The Changes?

1. We will only place bets Against The Spread if our projected final score predicts a spread 4+ points away from the consensus point spread set by the sports books.*

2. We will only place bets on the moneyline if the ROI on winning that bet is greater than or equal to +25%.*
   
   *As always we will note what bets we do and do not place in our Pigeon Picks newsletter and free prediction pieces
   

3. We will be increasing our unit size every three games commensurate with our ROI. If over a three game span our ROI is 33%, for the next three games out unit size will increase 33%. This will allow us to compound profits and grow faster.

Does This Change What We Provide To Subscribers?

Nope.

We will continue to provide final score predictions, behavioral profiling, and risk reports for every primetime game, and for Pigeon Picks subscribers, every game.

As is always the case, how YOU bet is entirely up to YOU and we will still provide to you all of the information and data we have so you can make the most informed choices available.

Sunday will begin changes 1 and 2. To take full advantage and join in on the great start we’ve had to 2023, upgrade here: