Week 3 MNF Prediction

We had our first Bloody Sunday of the 2023 NFL season. A day filled with outliers, record breaking performances and upsets galore. Let’s dive in and see what we learned!

What’s In Here?

• Sunday Night Football Recap

• MNF Prediction

• Week 3 Sunday Recap

• MNF QB Passing Prop Picks

Sunday Night Football Recap

SNF was a great way to wrap up what was a brutal afternoon slate.

• Projected Score

  • Steelers 20, Raiders 18

• Actual Score

  • Steelers 23, Raiders 18
    

• Steelers ML✅

• Steelers By 1-6✅

• Kenny Pickett OVER 220.5✅

Monday Night Football Preview

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles offense continue to regress from their 2022 SBx pace. It shouldn’t prevent them from getting a win, even if it doesn't look pretty.

Can Matthew Stafford and the Rams upset the Bengals in their Super Bowl rematch?

Here is how we’re hedging against the risk:

• Week 3 Monday Night Football Prediction

• What is Dutching?

Week 3 Was A Bloody Sunday For Bettors

The NFL script writers hit us with a doozy of an NFL Sunday in Week 3, and it was our first losing week of the year. It was a rough week for the book makers at setting spreads, as well as predictive modeling not prepared for the sheer amount of outliers in one week.

• Favored by only 6.5 by the sports books, the Dolphins scored 70 (!) points and won their game by 50 (!) points!

  • We had them winning, but not by more than 24. We lost our dutch bets on this one.

  • No team has scored 70 points in over 5 decades
    

• The Bills offense continues to be at the top end of mediocre. They scored 30 points, but with an SBx of 0.85, needing more than 34 minutes and 5(!) extra possessions.

  • But what we didn’t account for was the defense forcing 5 turnovers, recording 9 sacks, and, scoring a defensive touchdown. The odds of that happening are astronomical.

  • More interesting is how the offense didn’t do more with all of the extra opportunities.
    

• The Chiefs were favored by 12.5 points by the sports books, against the Bears. They won by 31 points. We anticipated a max win of 24 points. As a result, we lost on our dutch bets.
  

• The Colts went into Baltimore as a significant underdog by the sports books, and won on the road with their back up quarterback in overtime. We projected a Baltimore win by as many as 18 points. As a result, we lost our dutch bets.
  

• The Browns were 3 point favorites by the sports books. We anticipated they could win by as many as 12 points, and lose by as many as 6.

  • The Browns won by 24 points, without recording a turnover on defense.
    

• Texans were big underdogs at every sports book to the Jaguars. So, of course, they best the Jaguars by 20 points in one of the more shocking results of the day.
  

• The Cardinals were 12.5 point underdogs against the Cowboys. The Cowboys lost by 12 points, completely flipping the sports book point spread on its head. We projected a Cowboys win by as many as 24 points. We lost our dutch bets.

All Was Not Lost

• The Chargers/Vikings game was projected by us as a virtual toss up at 26 points apiece. The Chargers won 28-24 (two point margin on either side) in a game that came down to a last second fourth down pass from inside the ten yard line by the Vikings that was tipped and intercepted.

  • Wasn’t the 26-26 tie, but the way the game played out, we nailed the game flow.
    

• We projected a New England win against the Jets in a low scoring close game. The Patriots won 15-10, and well with in our ditched winning margins.
  

• We projected the Saints to win a two-point game against the Packers in a virtual tossup, 21-19.

  • While there was an outlier in the Saints losing QB Derek Carr during the game, the Packers ended up winning by one point 18-17, each team just a few points off of our projected score for them, and well within our margins for winning our dutch bets.

• We nailed Sunday Night Football between the Steelers and Raiders. We hit on the Steeler moneyline and their winning margin of 1-6, plus Kenny Pickett’s QB Prop.

  • We projected a 20-18 score

  • Pittsburgh won 23-18

These types of Sundays do come around every so often where every team seemingly decides to have an outlier type of day all at once. That in and of itself is an outlier.

Additionally, while it has been a losing week so far, we are still up on the season overall (🤑) and have two games tonight to try and get back on top.

MNF QB Props

Jalen Hurts

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