Week 18 Texans vs. Colts Prediction

Texans Vs Colts Prediction

The Texans Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) has regressed significantly since their bye week, and CJ Stroud’s return last week indicated some rust in his return from a concussion. Their playoff hopes completely rest on that being turned around.

The Colts defense has its own volatility issues. In their last four games they have alternated between being Jekyll and Hyde. Who shows up Sunday could determine the winner.

Our Applied Football Behavior Analytics tell the story of a closely contested matchup:

• Texans vs. Colts Prediction

Steelers vs. Ravens

Geometric Mean Final Scores

^{(Accounting For Huntley Being Names As Starter)}

• Steelers 23.18 (Based on Mason Rudolph Starts ONLY)

• Ravens 22.93

Bets Placed

• Ravens +4 (-110
  ^{(Keep an eye on this line, as it could move significantly)}

Are Ravens Taking A Risk Resting Their Starters?

The Ravens have been in this situation before. In 2019, they were the number 1 seed in the AFC and, with nothing to play for in the final week, they sat their starters. They then had the bye week, so two consecutive weeks off. When they returned to action in the divisional round against the Titans, they were flat and rusty, losing the game and scoring only 12 points.

You could argue that that result should serve as a punisher for that same decision this time around for Harbaugh.

What is a Punisher?

So we’re all speaking the same language, a punisher is a type of consequence that occurs immediately following a behavior. The punisher is ONLY a punisher if it makes it less likely for that behavior to occur in the future (good reminder for parents, if you’re “punishing” your kids repeatedly for the same behavior, the punishment isn’t actually having a punishing effect!).

Being one and done in the playoffs as a heavily favored one seed could be significant enough of a punisher to have Harbaugh reconsider. However, Harbaugh could suffer from a dogmatic approach in that he may think there’s a way to do things and his process is the right way. With four years having passed, the effects of that punisher may not be so significant so as to ween him away from that type of thinking.

Isn’t Getting Players Rest Good?

On January 20th, we will find out if that is the case for the Ravens. But the answer is not a universal one. There are 32 unique environments in the NFL and what works for one may not work for the other. Generally speaking, when a team has momentum, a disruption like skipping a week, could prove to be very damaging.

The Ravens have seen 12% scoring behavior growth throughout 2023, and 8 of their last 10 games have seen a scoring behavior rate of over 0.9 points scored per minute of possession time, with five of those being an SBx over 1.

Resting players and disrupting that momentum for two full weeks, could be costly.

Additionally, Kyle Shanahan, who I personally know uses elements of behavior science in his coaching, explained it to reporters perfectly this week about the changes and disruptions to the environment when you sit your starters, absence an injury like the stinger Brock Purdy is dealing with. Here is his direct quote:

The Final NFL Week of the regular season is upon us. Don’t miss out on that, and the entire postseason through the Super Bowl, with the only model rooted in the science of human behavior, and has been profitable every single month of this NFL season on over 500 bets!