Week 17 Saturday Pigeon Profile

The Lions are locked into a top four seed as a division winner but are in the think of the race for the NFC’s number 1 seed. The Cowboys are still in play for the NFC East crown.

Both teams need a win. Both of these teams are greatly affected by the external environmental factor of location on their performance behavior.

Final Score Projection

^{(Geometric Means of All Probable Outcomes)}

• Lions 27.32

• Cowboys 26.76

Bets Placed

• Lions +5.5 (-110)

• Lions Moneyline (+210, ½ Unit Bet) Profile

Pigeon Profile

The Cowboys are undefeated at home, where this game will take place, with nearly a two point per play difference depending on where the game is played. Their defense’s bounce rate is x5.9. Not only has opponent quality been a huge factor governing their performances, but all of their truly dominant performances (UNDER 0.5 points allowed per minute of possession time) have occurred at home. Their worst performances (ABOVE 0.8 points allowed per minute of possession time) have occurred on the road.

The Lions average over one full point LESS per play on the road than they are at home. But that is the problem with outliers, in that two of those games were outside in cold weather, and were by far their lowest outputs of the season.

Not only are the Lions affected by location, but also by temperature. They have played two games in outdoor, cold weather stadiums. They lost both, scoring a combined 13 points and 0.35 points per minute of possession time. Remove those, and their home and away points per play is much closer.

So how to assess that The Cowboys are at home, where they excel, and the Lions are on the road, BUT, are playing indoors? That’s where bounce rate comes into play, since we need to account for the environments each team is performing/behaving in.

We don’t have to adjust projections much for the Lions behavior, but we do need to be mindful that the Cowboys defense struggles against offenses with slightly above average scoring behavior. However, the Lions defense has been one of the worst in the league in terms of score prevention behavior rate, and are giving up about the same points per minute as the Cowboys are scoring.

These equities lead to a tightly contested matchup that slightly favors the Lions, who while on the road, are in a closed indoor stadium. Time of Possession will be a large factor in the outcome of this one, and who ever wins that will give themselves the opportunity to get ahead for good.

For the rest of our Week 17 Behavior Profiles and Analysis, complete with the bets we’ve placed, make sure you subscribe to our Premium offering. Super easy to sign up, easy to unsubscribe, and can pay for itself.