Week 17 Saturday Football Projections

We have three Saturday games here in Week 17, lets line it up:

Chargers vs. Patriots

Final Score Projection:

• Chargers 26, Patriots 23

Pigeon Picks:

• Patriots +6 (-110)

• Patriots OVER 18.5 points (-105)

I think people still under estimate the Patriots offense under Drake Maye. He may not be doing what Jayden Daniels is doing, or Bo Nix, but he has shown quality QB play and grown since becoming the starter full time.

They face a Chargers defense that has allowed 0.65 points per minute five times in the last six games. That number is important because it is what the Patriots offense averages in Maye’s starts, leading the second most consistent scoring offense in that span.

The Chargers defense is also in a 24% regression over the course of the season in giving up points per minute. Chargers may win, but Pats have a chance to cover, and score more than 18.5 points.

Broncos vs. Bengals

Final Score Projection:

• Broncos 27, Bengals 24

Pigeon Picks:

• Broncos ML (+150)

• Broncos +3.5 (-115)

• Broncos OVER 22.5 points (-140)

• Broncos OVER 24.5 (+105)

We are higher on the Broncos than most. They had the game in hand against the Chargers, and many different factors contributed to that going away.

That Week 16 game was an outlier for what has been a dominating Broncos defense, and was their worst game of the season.

Yes, they are going against one of the absolute top offenses in the NFL, and they may yield points, but we think they keep them in check enough to give their offense a chance against the worst defense in football.

The Broncos offense under Bo Nix has gotten better all season long at maximizing their possession time to score points, to the tune of a 14% week to week growth. In their last five games they have been one of the top scoring offenses in football.

The Bengals defense is atrocious. They are giving up 0.969 points per minute on average, and are also regressing by 3% week to week. We project the Broncos defense to do enough to give Nix a chance to take advantage and pull off the road win.

Cardinals vs. Rams

Final Score Projection:

• Rams 20, Cardinals 17

Pigeon Picks:

• Cardinals +6.5 (-110)

• Rams UNDER 26.5 points (+105)

The Rams have been among the most improved teams in football all season. On offense, we can credit that to the return of Puka Nacua. But, that defense has also gotten remarkably better.

Removing the insane outlier that was the game against the Bills, from the start of this Eason to now, that defense is seeing a 28% growth week over week in preventing points per minute.

That will level off sooner rather than later, but they have been stout, and will face a Cardinals offense that has mostly been mediocre to above average this season.

The Cardinals defense is the most inconsistent in football with an x3.6 bounce rate. Fascinatingly they have either been feast or famine, with absolutely no in between. If anything we may be over estimating their capability in this one.

Either way, we think the Cardinals cover and keep it closer than the Rams would like.

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