Week 16 Football Behavior Guide

In partnership with

Football Behavior is thrilled to partner with BRUNT!

Get a Free Tumbler on Us

Get a FREE 40 oz Tumbler when you purchase a best-selling Marin in soft or comp toe. Try it on the job for 30 days, if you don't love it, send it back for a full refund.

Get your tumbler here

Week 16 has tow very important head to head matchups that could shape the playoff picture in the NFC:

• The Eagles taking on the Commanders means something for both squads

  • Commanders being in a slight Scoring Behavior regression week over week need to reverse course vs an Eagles team in a Scoring Behavior Growth phase.

• Vikings vs. Seahawks could push the Seahawks out of contention, and propel Minnesota towards the NFC North title.

  • The Vikings are in a Scoring Behavior growth phase, while the Seahawks are in a regression.

• Picks for both games below for Pigeon Picks+ subscribers

Week 16 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

Final Score Projection:

• Buccaneers 26, Cowboys 19

Picks:

• Buccaneers -4

• Buccaneers ML

The Buccaneers are a sleeper team for us in the NFC. They rank 6th in Margin for Error Score, are in a Scoring Behavior Growth phase, and rank 4th in the Football Behavior Consistency Score.

Baker Mayfield is playing at an MVP level, ranking top 3-5 in every passing category. We like them to take advantage of the Dallas defense, which has been able to beat up on bad offenses in the last 2 of 3 games.

The Cowboys defense has faced five top 10 Scoring Behavior Rate offenses. They are 1-4 in those games, giving up an average of 1.02 points per minute of possession time to those opponents.

1.02 ppm would rank dead last in the NFL. Tampa ranks 4th in Scoring Behavior Rate. We like them to win and cover the four point spread. Also, don’t be surprised to see them score OVER 26.5 points.

Monday Night Football Game

Final Score Prediction:

• Packers 23, Saints 18

Picks:

• Saints +14

• Packers UNDER 28.5

Don’t get it twisted. The Packers will win this one. The question is by how much. The Packers, for our money at this point in the season, are one of the top 3 teams in the entire NFL, and they lead in our Total Team Behavior Score.

The Saints scored one point per minute of possession last week with Spencer Rattler, but there was a lot of unsustainable environmental context that led to that.

But the reason we think New Orleans will cover is because of their defense which has been one of the top units in the league at preventing points. The key will be time of possession.

If they can keep the Packers off of the field, a cover becomes very likely based on their defense’s Score Prevention Behavior rate (0.58 points per minute). Also, don’t be surprised if Packers score UNDER 28.5 points per minute.

All Week 16 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 16 Pigeon Picks

We have 10 picks this Sunday! We are 30-23-1 in the month of December.

Thank you to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers for riding with us! Here are our Week 16 Picks!

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.