Week 15 Football Behavior Guide

Week 15 is here and with some of the most impactful matchups we’ll see this season.

• Bills taking on the Lions is both a potential Super Bowl matchup AND has massive impact on the number one seeds in both conferences

• Pittsburgh taking on Philadelphia has the same implications

• Green Bay taking on Seattle could have major implications for the NFC West in light of the Thursday Night Football win for the Rams

Week 15 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

Another Sunday Night Game that is also our Pigeon Pick of the Week. This meets the criteria for behavior trends, consistency scores, and behavior patterns from opposing sides of the ball matching up.

We have this game as a close one. Very few teams have a real home field advantage, and there was a time that that was how we thought about Seattle: one of the few true home field advantages in the NFL.

Instead they have a losing record of at home, and we have put them on alert for losing their hold on the top of the division to the surging Rams.

With a loss to Green Bay, both they and Rams will be 8-6 and the Rams will hold the tie breaker, taking the top spot in the NFC West.

That’s precisely what we believe will happen here. Green Bay is stronger than some think, and Seattle is weaker than some think. Green Bay gets the road win

Remember, we analyze behavior patterns, not records. It’s why we picked both the Packers to win AND the Seahawks to be held to UNDER 22.5 points. Seattle’s offense is regressing by 4% week over week, and the Packers defense is improving by 8% week over week in scoring behavior metrics.

We like those trends to continue.

Monday Night Football Game #1

No bet from us in this one. We suspect Minnesota wins easily, and the moneyline odds offer us very little incentive to take the risk.

Additionally, Minnesota is ranked 28th in consistency score. With no edge and some concern about the Vikings consistency, paired with the extreme environmental changes the Bears have gone through, we recommend staying away from this one.

Monday Night Football Game #2

This is simply a game where there is little edge. We have a five point victory for the Falcons, and the spread from the books is 5.5 points.

On the Moneyline, the Falcons are getting -250 odds to win, and that’s not enough incentive to take the risk.

Add to this the blow to the Raiders defense of Maxx Crosby being lost for the season, and there is a lot of new behaviors likely to emerge that we haven’t seen.

All Week 15 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 15 Pigeon Picks

We have 14 picks this Sunday! We are 20-12-1 in the month of December.

Thank you to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers for riding with us! Here are our Week 15 Picks!

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