Week 15 Analytics Update

Week 15 is here, starting with a big time NFC West matchup between the 49ers and the Rams. The Rams were one of the two teams we said to look out for who may steal the division from the Seahawks before it is all said and done.

We feel that way based on our behavioral analytics, which are updated in full below, just after our Thursday Night Football Prediction. Lets us know what you think?!

In here:

• Week 15 Thursday Night Football Projection

  • TNF Picks

• For everyone: Top 5 in every major Behavior Analytic Category

• For Pigeon Picks+ Subscribers: Full 32 team analytics data base, ranked by Margin For Error Score

Week 15 Thursday Night Football

Final Score Projection

• 26-20 Rams 

Official Football Behavior Picks

• Rams Moneyline (+110)

• Rams +2 (-101)

• Rams OVER 24.5 (+110)

Another big time divisional matchup on a Thursday Night Football. We highlighted a couple weeks ago that the Rams were one of two NFC West teams to look out for as a potential threat to the Seahawks.

How much does Puka Nacua mean to the Rams offense?

In the first six games of the season, all but about one half of one game played without him, the Rams barely averaged over a half a point per minute at 0.546 Scoring Behavior Rate.

In the seven games with him that Scoring Behavior Rate is up 47% to 0.803 points per minute! Him being healthy and available immediately elevates their team and makes them as dangerous as anyone in the league.

But the defense…

It’s the Rams defense that is a major concern. They just gave up 2 (!) points per minute to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. That’s obviously an outlier, but for the season their defense is ranked 25th in the NFL in Score Prevention behavior. Not great.

Luckily the Seattle offense is not Buffalo’s and is in a 4% regression week over week. They rank 18th in Scoring Behavior for the season. We think the Rams defense will do just enough to keep the Seahawks to their season average.

The Seahawks defense may hold the Rams offense to less than what we saw in Buffalo, but we suspect not enough to get the win.

Week 15 Analytics UPDATE

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Teams

(Points Scored Per Minute of Possession Time)

1. Buffalo Bills (1.021 points/min)

2. Green Bay Packers (0.954 points/min)

3. Washington Commanders (0.941 points/min)

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0.903 points/min)

5. Detroit Lions (0.895 points/min)

Top 5 Score Prevention Behavior Teams

(Points Allowed Per Minute of Opponent Possession Time)

1. Denver Broncos (0.459 points allowed/min)

2. Los Angeles Chargers (0.525 points allowed/min)

3. Buffalo Bills (0.559 points allowed/min)

4. Minnesota Vikings (0.562 points allowed/min)

5. Arizona Cardinals (0.581 points allowed/min)

Top 5 Margin For Error Score

(+/- of Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior, fitted to a scale capped at 100)

1. Buffalo Bills (76.2)

2. Green Bay Packers (59.9)

3. Minnesota Vikings (57.1)

4. Detroit Lions (55.4)

5. Denver Broncos (55.4)

Top 5 Most Improved Offenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Scoring Growth (%))

1. Los Angeles Rams (35%)

2. Denver Broncos (44%)

3. Cleveland Browns (16%)

4. Philadelphia Eagles (15%)

5. New England Patriots (15%)

Top 5 Most Improved Defenses

(Week to Week Rate of Improvement in Score Prevention (%))

1. Carolina Panthers (16%)

2. Philadelphia Eagles (14%)

3. Arizona Cardinals (13%)

4. Green Bay Packers (7%)

5. Washington Commanders (7%)

Top 5 Most Improved Teams Overall

(Week to Week Combined Rate of Improvement in Scoring and Score Prevention Behavior (%))

1. Philadelphia Eagles (33.4%)

2. Los Angeles Rams (32.35%)

3. Carolina Panthers (18%)

4. Green Bay Packers (17.72%)

5. Arizona Cardinals (16%)

Top 5 Most Consistent Offenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Offense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Houston Texans (x1.3)

2. Green Bay Packers (x1.5)

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (x1.6)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.7)

5. New England Patriots (x1.7)

Top 5 Most Consistent Defenses

(Likely Multiple of Variation in an Defense’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Baltimore Ravens (x1.4)

2. Houston Texans (x1.5)

3. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.6)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.8)

5. Seattle Seahawks (x1.9)

Top 5 Most Consistent Teams Overall

(Combined Likely Multiple of Variation in a Team’s Next Performance Based on Week to Week performance to date)

1. Houston Texans (x1.4)

2. Las Vegas Raiders (x1.7)

3. Baltimore Ravens (x1.75)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (x1.75)

5. Seattle Seahawks (x1.85)

Top 5 Toughest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. New York Jets (37.5)

2. Houston Texans (37.39)

3. Atlanta Falcons (36.88)

4. Los Angeles Rams (36.46)

5. Carolina Panthers (36.4)

Top 5 Easiest Schedules

(Calculated by Taking the Average of Margin For Error Scores for Each Opponent Faced)

1. Washington Commanders (19.56)

2. Cincinnati Bengals (20.54)

3. Buffalo Bills (20.74)

4. Los Angeles Chargers (21.45)

5. New England Patriots (23.06)

Top 5 Total Team Behavior Score

(Weighted combining of Margin For Error Score, Momentum Index, Consistency Score, and Strength of Schedule)

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Philadelphia Eagles

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4. Arizona Cardinals

5. Los Angeles Rams

FULL 32 Team Behavioral Database

*Ranked by Margin For Error Score

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