Week 14 TNF Recap

How great was last night’s game between the Lions and Packers. In yesterday’s newsletter we said the NFC North may be the best division in football, and yesterday did nothing to dispel us from that notion.

What we got right…

1. The Picks

• Green Bay +3.5 ✅

• Green Bay OVER 20.5 ✅

• Detroit Moneyline ✅

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2. The Spread

Our projection model projected a very close game. Officially we had it as a 2 point spread, and it ended up a 3 point spread.

A large reason we were able to project the competitiveness of this game was due to our behavioral analytics.

3. The Analytics

When looking at the behavior analytics, these teams were closely aligned in Margin For Error Score:

• Lions 59.4 (2nd overall)

• Packers 59.2 (3rd overall)

They were aligned in Momentum Index in key matchups:

• Lions saw 1% regression on defense

• Packers saw 4% improvement on offense

They were aligned in Consistency Score in key matchups

• Lions had a x2.2 bounce rate on defense

• Packers had a x1.5 bounce rate on offense

This key analytics led us projecting a close game where the Packers offense had a chance to over perform, which is what led to our picks.

What We Got Wrong…

This relates solely to our Final Score Projection, and the concerns listed below is what caused us to refrain from certain picks.

1. Defensive Prowess

This was a relative outlier for both defenses based on recent performances:

• The Packers has gone 4 straight games allowing less than 0.6 points per minute of opponents possession time until last night, where they allowed 0.95 points per minute.

• This was the the worst performance for the Detroit Lions defense of the entire 2024 NFL Season. In fact, it was their worst game by half a point, as they allowed 1.3 points per minute to the Packers, and hadn’t given up more than 0.85 points per minute all year long.

Due to the Lions ranking 29th in Consistency Score overall coming into this game, we stayed away from Lions props in this one.

Outlier Events

It is really possible the Packers could have been the ones winning this game if not for key outlier events that went the way of the Lions.

1. Fumbles

People don’t realize how rare a fumble really is as a turnover. Did you know that through last night’s game there have been 23,596 plays run combined by the 32 NFL teams.

There have been only 199 turnovers via the fumble in those 23,000+ plays.

That’s only 0.84% of all plays. That is the very definition of outlier. Last night Christian Watson fumbled the football following a big gain that simultaneously ended a scoring chance for the Packers, and led to three points and an extra possession for the Lions.

The game was decided by three points.

2. 4th Down Conversions

Yes, Dan Campbell and Dan Gamble may be the same person, but the last night was an outlier even by his standards.

The Lions rank 4th in the NFL with only 1.2 4th down conversions per game. Last night they had 4 of them. That’s nearly 4x their season average.

More than that, they converted 80% of their five 4th down attempts. That 12 points higher than their season average of 68.12% conversion rate.

Two of those conversions tick out in particular. And not the two you are thinking of.

Twice the Lions went for it on 4th down and goal to go. Twice, they scored touchdowns. If the Packers get even just one stop, we could be looking at a different outcome.

Surprise?

The Packers may have lost this game, but they may have come out STRONGER because of it. They are not going to win the division, but I would not be surprised if the Packers out lasted the Lions in the postseason.

The Packers will end up leap frogging the Lions in our Margin For Error rankings based on their extremely potent offensive showing, and the continued regression we are seeing from the Lions on defense.

If those trends continue for each team, this outcome may look different if there is a postseason rematch.

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