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Week 14 Power Rankings & Charts
Environmental Control & Margin For Error
Brett Yarris
December 05, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
As we head into Week 14 Here is where the teams stand as the playoff picture comes closer and closer into view.
Margin For Error Chart
This chart shows us where each team in the NFL is based on the geometric mean of their Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) and their Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx). Goes without saying you want to score more points per minute than you give up per minute. The teams that do that with the greatest margin are the likeliest to withstand outlier events from their opponents.
How To Read The Chart
You Want To Be In The Bottom Right Quadrant
Bottom Right: Above average scoring behavior, above average score prevention behavior
Top Left: Below average scoring behavior, below average score prevention behavior
Top Right: Above average scoring behavior, below average score prevention behavior
Bottom Left: Below average scoring behavior, above average score prevention behavior.
What Is It Telling Us?
Teams in the Bottom Right have a combined winning % of .611. Every team in that quadrant is .500 or better
SF
MIA
BUF
BAL
DEN
KC
HOU
GB
MIN
Teams in the Top Left have a combined winning % of 0.3332. Every team is 0.500 or worse
TEN
NO
CIN
CHI
CAR
Teams in the Top Right have a combined winning % of 0.5549, showing if one of your units is to be below average, it better not be your offense
WASH
DET
DAL
PHI
LAR
IND
SEA
JAX
ARZ
LAC
Teams in the Bottom Left have a combined winning % of 0.416, showing that no matter how elite your defense is, if you can’t score points you have no chance
TB
CLE
ATL
LV
PIT
NYG
NYJ
NE
If there is an over-performing outlier team in one of the quadrants, it is the assumption that their win-loss record has likely benefitted from outliers and COULD be susceptible to a late season slide, or early playoff exit.
DET
PHI
CLE
DAL
Week 14 Environmental Control Chart
As a refresher from last week, this chart indicates to us which teams have strong internal control over their performances, for better or worse. A low bounce rate tells us that this team is less susceptible to the behavior of their opponent, and if they succeed or fail, it is likely to be because of their own behavior.
How To Read The Chart
You Want To Be In The Bottom Left Quadrant
Bottom Left: Strong internal control for both units
Top Right: Weak internal control for both units
Top Left: Strong internal control on offense, Weak internal control on defense
Bottom Right: Strong internal control on defense, weak internal control on offense
What Is It Telling Us?
Teams in the Bottom Left have a combined winning % of 0.541.
The worst of those teams (Vegas) already fired their coach for a consistently bad performance, making a needed change to the environment
Every other team is in the playoff hunt, and/or has improved their performance over the course of the season to enter the playoff hunt.
KC
BAL
LAR
GB
DEN
NO
LV
Teams in the top right have a combined winning % of 0.379.
Many of these teams have been effected by many external factors (injuries, coaching changes) OR have existing coaching situations where the coaching isn’t as effective, making them susceptible to their opponents behavior.
CLE (Defensive Coaching not matching talent)
NE (QB changes, no offensive identity)
NYG (QB injuries, O-line injuries, no adaptability)
SEA (Talent is carrying the coaching)
CAR (Coaching Change, Rookie QB)
LAC (Defensive Injuries, Erratic Offense)
NYJ (QB injury, Offensive Line Injuries, No growth)
TB (Poor Coaching)
IND (QB injury, Lack Of Defensive Consistency From Holdover Coach)
Teams in the Top Left have a combined winning % of 0.510. These teams are mostly thriving on offensive consistency, but defensive inconsistency can still hurt them. One Team is an outlier.
SF (Dominant Offense, Defensive outliers have been of the dominating variety, meaning they're either very good or dominant. Outlier team)
DAL (Defensive performance is very opponent dependent)
CHI (offense is consistently bad, defense has had many ups and downs. Coaching has been. real problem.)
MIN (New DC. Performance improvement, but erratic)
ARZ (New DC paired with a mostly bad offense)
BUF (New DC, Defensive injuries)
Teams in the Bottom Right have a combined winning % of 0.569. These teams are all middle of the pack teams who either have a very strong unit on one side of the ball, and have benefitted form outliers on the other.
HOU
JAX
DET
TEN
ATL
PIT
What Does It All Mean?
There are several big takeaways for us from these two charts:
The 49ers are far and away the best team in the NFL when healthy. It’s something w have been writing in here for weeks in their behavior profiles, but these charts really illustrate it. The one blemish (SPBx bounce rate) is actually a strength when you consider their outliers have all been of the dominant variety.
The Cowboys and Eagles are susceptible to early playoff exits should they get the wrong opponent. Both defenses are struggling with consistency, and with performance against top tier opponents, the type you play in the playoffs. Dallas is more capable of overcoming that with the strength of their offense, as of now. Something to monitor.
The Dolphins performance is elite on both sides of the ball, but their inconsistency, especially on offense, is something to be aware of. They have been held in check against good defenses for the most part, and that could hurt them in the postseason. But man, when they’re on, they’re unstoppable.
Houston, The Rams, and Green Bay have all earned their way into the playoff hunt and these charts show it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone monitoring their behavior. All three have positive behavioral trends I their performance behavior, above average performance behavior on both units, and strong internal control on both units, with Houston’s offense the lone exception, though they are trending in the right direction.
Power Rankings
Our First edition of our Power Rankings combined the above two charts, as well as each team’s behavioral trends. Win-Loss is used only as a tie breaker between two teams who overlap on the two charts. Head to head matchups have no weight on the rankings, unless the head to head was within the last two weeks, and win-loss is a tie.
49ers
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Dolphins
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Eagles
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Rams
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Packers