Week 14 Football Behavior Guide

Everyone gets mad that the Chiefs aren’t in our top 10 teams when we do our Margin For Error Rankings.

Wait until they see our Sunday Night Football Projection….

What’s in here?

• Sunday Night Football Pick and Projection

  • ✚ Pigeon Pick of the Week

• Monday Night Football Pick and Projection

• For Pigeon Pick+ Subscribers: Every Week 14 Pick and Projection

Week 14 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

Not only is this the Sunday Night Game, but it is also our Pigeon Pick of the Week. It meets the criteria for behavior trends, consistency scores, and behavior patterns from opposing sides of the ball matching up.

We have this game as a virtual tie, but with a slight edge to the Chargers once we start getting into decimal places.

The Chiefs have not looked good for the last four consecutive weeks:

• They should have lost to the Broncos, but blocked a last second field goal

• They lost by two scores to Buffalo

• They got pushed to the brink by the Panthers, winning on a last second field goal

• They should have lost to the Raiders, but won on a fumbled snap that they had nothing to do with creating.

  • The Panthers and Broncos are a combined 5-19

Remember, we analyze behavior patterns, not records. Its why we picked both the Raiders and the Panthers to cover against the Chiefs (shout out to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers who tailed both!).

The Chiefs are doing just about the same on offense as they did a year ago, in terms of scoring behavior, showing a 4% improvement year over year.

But on Defense, the regression is much more massive. Last year they had the best defense in football at preventing points, the only thing that matters.

So far, through 2024, they are allowing 41% more points per minute than they did in 2023. They are also regressing by 4% week over week in 2024, at that.

The Chargers offense is seeing 18% growth week over week, and that matchup led to us taking the Chargers to score OVER 18.5 points in this one, as it matches our projection in line with current behavior trends.

Monday Night Football

Not much to say about this one except that both of these teams stink and you should stay the hell away from this one.

The Cowboys rank 27th in consistency score and has a sharp 30% week over week regression on offense.

The Bengals have the worst defense in football, regressing by 18% week over week, and a potent offense.

The Bengals regressing defense facing the Cowboys regressing offense is an invitation for an outlier event. One we recommend staying away from.

All Week 14 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 14 Pigeon Picks

We have 17 picks this week! We are 11-1 in the month of December. Let’s keep it hot as the temperatures try to freeze us out!

Thank you to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers for riding with us! Here are our Week 14 Picks!

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.