Week 13 Thursday Night Football Prediction

What’s In Here?

The Seahawks vs Cowboys on Thursday Night Football is a tale of two divergent behavioral paths. Seattle's offense, struggling to find its footing, and their defense, showing flashes of brilliance but lacking consistency, face a formidable Cowboys team. The Cowboys' high-flying offense and unpredictable defense make for an intriguing Thursday Night Football matchup, with the potential for surprises and strategic battles unfolding on the field.

• Week 13 Thursday Night Football Behavior Profile

• TNF QB-havior Props (Partially Un-Gated)

Week 13 Thursday Night Football Prediction

In this week's Thursday Night Football prediction, the Seattle Seahawks face off against the Dallas Cowboys in a matchup that pits a struggling Seahawks offense against a fluctuating Cowboys defense, and a surging Cowboys offense against an improving but inconsistent Seahawks defense.

• Week 13 Thursday Night Football Prediction

Week 13 QB-havior Projections

This is typically a Premium Sub exclusive, and it is today as well. However, we have decided to ungate the first quarterback in this matchup because many of you have asked how we decide what bets to place based on these projections.

Our hope is the details below will help some decide whether or not to commit a premium sub to us for our behavioral analysis in the future, something we hope to earn through transparency and proof of concept.

Dak Prescott’s profile for this game is unlocked for everyone, and Geno Smith’s profile will remain gated for non-premium subscribers.

Dak Prescott

Projected Passing Yards

• 264 Passing Yards

Bet Placed

• UNDER 285.5 Passing Yards (-120)

Why?

• Several reasons:

  • Quantifying the likelihood of Dak Prescott achieving 286 passing yards (OVER 285.5) involves synthesizing the various behavioral data points of both Prescott and the Seahawks defense, the environmental control they could have on one another.

    1. Prescott's Average Performance (8.14 passing yards/minute) and Seahawks' Defensive Average (7.411 passing yards allowed/minute): These averages suggest a baseline level of performance. Prescott's average is higher than what the Seahawks typically allow.

    2. Projected Time of Possession (31-32 minutes): We project the Cowboys to possess the ball most likely in the range of 31-32 minutes. This gives us a window of opportunity for how long Prescott will have to accumulate yards. Remember the first law of football behavior! It Applies to all offensive behavior, not just points! So QB-havior counts!

    3. Potential Yardage Range:

       • At Prescott's average: 8.14 yards/minute × 31 minutes = ~252.34 yards, and 8.14 yards/minute × 32 minutes = ~260.48 yards.

       • At Seahawks' defensive average: 7.411 yards/minute × 31 minutes = ~229.74 yards, and 7.411 yards/minute × 32 minutes = ~237.15 yards.

       • Based on the celeration trends and bounce rates of each side of the environment, we project the Seahawks to surrender just 188 yards across all outcomes.

       • Based on the celebration trends and bounce rates of each side of the environment, we project Dak Prescott to have 292 passing yards across all environments.

       • When both sides are placed in the same environments, and accounting for environmental control, we project the most likely outcome to be Dak Prescott throwing for 264 passing yards.

    4. Estimating Probability:

       • Based on these calculations, Prescott achieving exactly 286 yards is at the higher end of his probable performance range.

       • Given that his average performance, his projected most likely performance, and the Seahawks' defensive allowance are all lower than 286 yards, the odds of him hitting at least 286 are outside either side’s behavioral pattern.

       • However, since his average performance is above the Seahawks' defensive average, and considering the variability in football (as indicated by the bounce rates), there's at least a reasonable chance he could, which we must consider.

    5. Adjusting for Variability: The variability suggested by the bounce rates (x1.8 for Prescott and x2 for Seahawks) indicates that performances can swing widely from these averages in either direction.
       

• Given these factors, an estimate would place the likelihood of Prescott achieving exactly or OVER 286 passing yards in the range of 20% to 40%. This estimate acknowledges that while it's possible for Prescott to exceed the averages, doing so by the specific amount needed to reach 286 yards is less likely than simply achieving an average or slightly above-average performance.
  
  This suggests and 60% to 80% likelihood based on environmental control on each side’s behavior, he goes UNDER 286 passing yards.

Geno Smith

Projected Passing Yards

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