🏈The Trend We’re Watching: November Betting Record
As we close out the final weekend of games in November, we are sitting at a record of 52-37-1, or a 58% hit rate.

That has led us to s +19.65% ROI on the bets we have recommended here, along with a total monthly profit of +9.3 units.

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Denver’s SBx level sits comfortably above Washington’s SPBx level, and the celeration trend for the Broncos’ scoring has been positive (or at least flat-positive) for several weeks. Paired with a moderate/contained SBx bounce, that points to repeatable scoring series rather than boom-bust surges. Washington’s SPBx celeration has not kept pace; even when they clamp in the low red zone, their bounce pattern shows a higher probability of leakage drives turning into points.

Flip it and the Commanders’ SBx level trails Denver’s SPBx level. The Rams-style bend-don’t-break note we’ve seen from Denver recently shows up here: prevention celeration trending the right way, with a tighter bounce band than earlier in the season. That combination forces Washington to string together long third-down conversions; more drives end in punts or field-goal tries than touchdowns.

On the clock control front, BPB vs. BPPB favors Denver. The Broncos’ possession level plus low-to-moderate bounceyields more 8–10-play series and better field position churn, while Washington’s BPPB celeration hasn’t been strong enough to kick them off the field consistently. That’s why our model centers on Broncos 28, Commanders 14—Denver finishes more drives, Washington stalls more often.

Given those bounce envelopes, the outcome range is relatively tight on the Denver side and wider for Washington. A practical 70% band lands around DEN 24–31, WSH 13–17 (total 37–48). A 90% band broadens to DEN 21–34, WSH 10–20 (total 31–54), but still skews toward a multi-score Denver win unless turnover luck intervenes.

Betting guide

Team Totals

• Broncos O/U 24.5 (-106/-127): TAKE OVER 24.5 (-106). Model 28; possession & red-zone profile support 25+.

• Commanders O/U 18.5 (-115/-115): TAKE UNDER 18.5. Model 14; Denver’s SPBx celeration + WSH SBx bounce bias toward stalled drives.

Field Goals

• Commanders O/U 1.5 FGs (+107/-138): LEAN OVER 1.5 (+107). Washington’s most common scoring path is 1–2 kicks; plus-money is fair.

• Broncos O/U 2.5 FGs (+235/-345): PASS / lean under. Denver’s script is TD-heavier; asking for 3+ makes requires repeated stalls.

• Total FGs O/U 3.5 (-110/-120): TAKE UNDER 3.5 (-120). Broncos likely cash TDs; Washington adds 1–2 FGs—most common totals = 2–3.

Moneyline, Spread, O/U

• Broncos -5.5 (-112): TAKE. Model by ~14; strong edge.

• Broncos ML -265: TAKE as a parlay anchor.

• Game Total 43: PASS (model 42; edge too thin to pay juice).

New England’s SBx level sits above the Giants’ SPBx level, and the Pats’ celeration on offense has been flat-to-positive—drives stay on schedule with a low-to-moderate SBx bounce, which means fewer boom-bust series and more repeatable scoring chances. The Giants’ SPBx shows a wider bounce envelope; they can clamp for stretches but leak in the red zone when faced with sustained chains. That pairing supports a Patriots median in the upper-20s with a mix of touchdowns and field goals.

Flip it: the Giants’ SBx level has improved from early season, but New England’s SPBx celeration has trended the right way (prevention strengthening) and carries a tighter bounce. That forces New York to finish longer fields and convert late downs; more of their productive drives profile as three points over seven. Net: Giants’ scoring clusters exist, but the median lives around the high-teens/low-20s.

On possession, BPB vs. BPPB modestly favors the Patriots. Their possession level and controlled bounce create 8–10-play sequences, while the Giants’ BPB bounce is higher—good when they’re “on,” but prone to empty series when early downs stall. That possession shape plus the prevention trend lines pulls the total toward our 29–21 projection.

Outcome ranges (guided by bounce):

• 70% interval: Patriots 26–31, Giants 18–22 (total 44–53).

• 90% interval: Patriots 24–33, Giants 16–24 (total 40–57).
  Because New England’s offense and defense both show tighter bounce than the Giants’ units, this game is more predictable than average around the stated median.

Betting guide (PASS/TAKE with quick rationale)

Team Totals

• Patriots 27.5 O/U (-107/-125): TAKE OVER 27.5 (-107) — Model 29 (+1.5 edge) and red-zone volume supports 2–3 TDs plus kicks.

• Giants 19.5 O/U (-115/-115): PASS / small lean OVER — Model 21 (+1.5 edge) but their higher SBx bounce raises miss risk; prefer FG angles.

Field Goals

• Patriots 1.5 FGs O/U (-124/-108): TAKE OVER 1.5 (-124) — Sustained drives vs a bendy NYG SPBx often yield 2+ attempts/makes.

• Giants 1.5 FGs O/U (+109/-145): TAKE OVER 1.5 (+109) — Their most common scoring path vs a tightening Pats SPBx is two field goals; plus-money sweetens it.

• Total FGs 3.5 O/U (+108/-135): TAKE OVER 3.5 (+108) — Both game scripts point to 4+ combined (Pats’ red-zone friction + Giants’ stall rate).

Moneyline, Spread, O/U

• ML: PASS (pricey -390)

• Spread: TAKE NE -7 (-109) (push risk; -6.5 preferred if available)

• Total 46.5: TAKE OVER (-108) (model 50)

Quick card (copy/paste)

• Patriots Over 27.5 (-107) — TAKE

• Giants Over 19.5 (-115) — PASS / lean Over

• Patriots FG Over 1.5 (-124) — TAKE

• Giants FG Over 1.5 (+109) — TAKE

• Game FGs Over 3.5 (+108) — TAKE

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