Week 13 Pigeon Picks

What’s In here?

• Environmental Control Chart

• Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prediction

• Week 13 Pigeon Picks

• Week 13 SNF QB-havior

Environmental Control Chart

The theme for December is Environmental control. We are far enough along in the season to have a good understanding of which teams have a solid internal control over their own team environments, and which teams are subject to being influenced by external control (opponent, location, etc.).

For months, you have heard us discuss “Bounce Rates” in our risk reports. These refer to the rate of volatility a team is displaying week to week. Another way of saying it, these measure how much control the environment has over a team’s behavior.

• A lower bounce rate indicates more internal control, which is to say they are more impervious to the behavior of their opponent. They will do what they do regardless, for better or worse.

• A high bounce rate indicates that the external environment, inclusive of weekly opponent in that environment, has more control over a team’s weekly performance behavior.

What does it mean?

• Low Bounce Rates (more internal control) with good results would indicate coaching and roster construction has been well married with roster talent.

• Low Bounce Rates (more internal control) with bad results would indicate the coaching or front office needs to institute an environmental change i.e. roster construction, coaching change, etc.

• High Bounce Rates (more external control) will yield mixed results good and bad, which could indicate coaching is less effective and roster talent is primarily the driving force for the results in a given week.

Here is our Environmental Control Chart through Week 12:

Key To reading The Chart

• X-Axis is Offensive scoring behavior bounce rate (variance in the scoring performance of an offense)

• Y-Axis is the Defensive score prevention bounce rate (variance in the score prevention performance of a defense)

• Lower Left Quadrant: Both the offense and defense are under internal environmental control, for better or worse

• Upper Right Quadrant: Both the offense and Defense are heavily influenced by external factors dictated by the opponent in any given week.

What you’ll see from us in today’s Pigeon Picks is more bets from teams on the left side of the chart, especially lower left. You’ll see virtually no bets from us on teams in the upper right, or ½ unit bets if anything. These teams will be noted in our risk reports with a “stay away” or “proceed with extreme caution”.

Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prediction

Ironically, this is a game involving two lower left quadrant teams in the Chiefs and Packers. This means, the chance of the most likely individual outcome being the actual outcome is much higher. And it may be closer than the books think. Here’s why we like Green Bay’s chances to cover.

• Week 13 Sunday Night Football Prediction

Week 13 Pigeon Picks

Every game, Every Week. 🕊️🧬

Not too late to sign up for premium! Easy to do, Easy to unsubscribe. Monthly options. Be part of the paradigm shift…

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.