Week 13 Football Behavior Guide

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We kick off Week 13 with Sunday and Monday Night Football, PLUS, our Pigeon Pick of the Week!

Then we give our Pigeon Picks+ subscribers every pick we’ve made for Week 13!

If you missed the rankings and analytics that’s make up these projections, check out our latest NFL Rankings post that went out Thursday…

Week 12 Primetime Game Predictions

Sunday Night Football

49ers @ Bills

Final Score Projection: Bills 28, 49ers 18

The 49ers have been a shell of themselves this season, between all of the injuries and the seeming hangover of a Super Bowl loss. Brock Purdy will play, but Nick Bosa and Trent Williams will be out.

We placed a Hal-unit bet on the Bills to cover the -6 spread. This is a pick with moderate confidence, with the risk factor being the Bills defense and their x2.5 bounce rate. That’s a high bounce rate that we typically like to stay away from.

But they are strong in every other category, and with the weakness of the 49ers offense without Williams, we are taking the risk.

Monday Night Football

Browns @ Broncos

Final Score Projection: Broncos 23, Browns 16

We recommend staying away from this game entirely. We project a win for the Broncos, but the projected margin is nearly in line with the spread from the books, which means there is no edge.

Add to that, that both teams are below average in our Football Behavior Consistency Score. The Broncos rank 30th, and the Browns rank 21st.

Pigeon Pick of the Week

The Ravens have been a team bucking the trends all season, winning when we project them to lose, and losing when we project them to win. They are having a very paradoxical season, playing explosive offense while playing next to no defense.

However, their last two weeks that defense has looked much improved, and if that is a new behavior trend emerging, look the F out for that team.

The Eagles are another team we have struggled to place. Their recent success has largely come against bad teams that they have feasted on. This week they will face perhaps their toughest test of the season.

This is the pick of the week because it ticks off all of the boxes. Both teams have relatively flat trends and very high consistency scores (ranking 6th and 9th respectively).

The key with any Ravens game is their offense vs the opposing defense. The Eagles need to keep the Ravens offense BELOW 0.9 points per minute AND 28 minutes time of possession in order to win this game.

The good news for Philly is that they rank 2nd in time of possession, and are out-performing their season average over their last three games. That trend must continue.

All Week 13 Score Predictions and Picks

All bets exclusively use final score predictions derived from Applied Football Behavior Analytics (AFBA), fed into our Prediction model.

Week 13 Pigeon Picks

and Final Score Predictions

We are at 66.6% hit rate in the month of November (30-15) through Week 12

Thank you to Pigeon Picks+ subscribers for riding with us! Here are our Week 13 Picks!

Subscribe to Pigeon Picks+ to read the rest.