🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Volatility
This deep into the season, team behavior begins to get into its most consistent. The teams are still volatile and inconsistent typically have coaching issues and could indicate to us which coaches may not be back next year.

Lions @ Eagles

Offense (PHI SBx) vs. Defense (DET SPBx). Philadelphia’s scoring behavior (SBx, points per minute) trends below league-upper tier pace and meets a Detroit SPBx that’s been the steadier of the two units. In practical terms: the Eagles’ drive-to-points conversion has required longer sequences this season, and Detroit’s score-prevention profile compresses possessions into field goals or empty trips more often than not. With Philly’s celeration not flashing a strong “up” slope lately, the most likely outcome is a scoring ceiling in the high teens/low 20s without short-field boosts.

Offense (DET SBx) vs. Defense (PHI SPBx). Detroit’s SBx profile has been modest but more efficient on scripted/openers and two-minute—exactly where the Eagles’ SPBx has shown leakage in “plus” downs. The Lions aren’t spiking, but their performance envelope sits consistently above Philly’s prevention median; that mismatch yields a small but persistent edge in red-zone points added, especially when Detroit stays on schedule (early-down success + limited negative plays).

Time of Possession (BPB/BPPB). Detroit’s Ball Possession Behavior paired against Philly’s BPPB tilts toward the Lions holding a slight ToP advantage (think ~31:00–29:00). That matters here: a couple of 8–10 play Lions sequences drain possessions from both sides, reinforcing the under and forcing the Eagles to string together full-field drives rather than capitalize on volume. Philly’s own BPB vs. Detroit’s BPPB projects closer to even, but not enough to flip the overall control.

Final read. When we combine both SBx/SPBx pairings with the possession picture, the median outcome projects Detroit creating the small separation and keeping the pace muted. Projected Final: Lions 21, Eagles 17.

Betting Guide

Market: Eagles -2.5 (-121) · Lions +2.5 (+100) · ML Lions +123 / Eagles -148 · Total 46.5 (-115/-106)
Our VI (from SBx/SPBx bounce rate for each side): Game VI ≈ 2.68 → confidence: “Low/Medium” on volatility, but edge-driven conviction is strong on two angles.

• Lions +2.5 (+100) — TAKE (High)
  Model edge ≈ +6.2 points vs. line. Even with moderate volatility, the cushion plus a key-numbers buffer makes this a buy.

• Lions Moneyline +123 — TAKE (Medium/High)
  We project DET by ~3.7. With plus-money and a possession edge, this deserves a sprinkle.

• Under 46.5 (-106) — TAKE (High)
  Model total ≈ 38.5, so ~8 points of room aided by sustained drives and red-zone throttling. Volatility doesn’t hurt as much on unders when both offenses lean possession-heavy.

*Lines as of Friday November 14th, 2025. Lines Subject to change

Additional Bets to Consider:

1) Eagles Team Total 24.5 (O +102 / U -135)

• TAKE: Under 24.5 (-135) — High confidence.
  Model says ~17 (≈ 7.5 pts below the line). Even with volatility, that’s a strong cushion. -135 implies ~57.4% break-even; our projection comfortably clears that.

2) Lions Team Total 23.5 (O +104 / U -139)

• PASS on Over 23.5 (+104). We project ~21 (≈ -2.5 pts vs the over).

• If you want action: LEAN Under 23.5 (-139) — Medium/Low. Price is heavy; still aligned with our median.

3) Total Field Goals Made 3.5 (O +122 / U -175)

• TAKE: Over 3.5 (+122) — Medium confidence.
  Our script (DET ToP edge, red-zone throttling on both sides) favors drives stalling into 3s. At plus money, needing 4+ FGs is reasonable given our Under 46.5 game lean.

• PASS on Under 3.5 (-175) — too juiced relative to the game flow we expect.

4) Anytime TD (Lions short-yardage RB / TE)

• TAKE: David Montgomery +156 — Medium/High.
  Plus-money for Detroit’s primary goal-line hammer fits the possession/short-yardage profile. +156 break-even ≈ 39.1%; our script has DET’s TDs most likely to be red-zone rushes.

• PASS/Small sprinkle: Jahmyr Gibbs -124 — Low.
  -124 break-even ≈ 55.4%; usage is there, but the specific game script (grind + RZ power) tilts slightly more to Monty at price.

5) Eagles FGs 1.5 (Over -114 / Under -117)

• TAKE: Over 1.5 (-114) — Medium/High confidence.
  Philly’s SBx vs. Detroit’s SPBx points to stalled red-zone trips and more 3’s than 7’s. To land around 17 points, outcomes like 2–3 FGs are very live (e.g., 1 TD + 2–3 FGs). Over breakeven ≈ 53.3%; we project the Eagles to reach 2+ FGs in the ~60–65% range.

• Pass on Under -117.

Cowboys @ Raiders

DAL SBx vs. LV SPBx. Dallas’ scoring behavior rate (SBx, points per minute) has lived in a middle band with spike-and-dip volatility, and it runs into a Raiders SPBx that’s better at squeezing red-zone value than at eliminating yardage. Net effect: long Cowboy marches that too often end in three instead of seven. The celeration trend isn’t screaming upward for Dallas, so the most likely outcome is a modest SBx realized against a defense that “wins late in drives.”

LV SBx vs. DAL SPBx. Vegas’ SBx profile is even noisier—big week swings (high bounce) and a reliance on short fields. Dallas’ SPBx has been a bend-don’t-break unit that tightens in the low red zone and on 3rd-and-medium. That pairing typically converts Raiders possessions into low-value scoring (a couple of field goals, one TD) unless Vegas lands an explosive or a takeaway. Without freebies, the SBx median sits below league average.

Time of possession (BPB/BPPB). The possession pairing points toward nearly even ToP, with a slight lean to Dallas (think ~30:30–29:30). The Cowboys’ prevention behavior keeps Vegas in longer, lower-value sequences; Dallas’ own BPB sustains drives but not necessarily at a high scoring rate. That double drag on pace depresses total possessions and props up the Under.

Final read. Layering both SBx↔SPBx matchups onto the possession picture yields a razor-thin game decided by field position and one late red-zone stand. Projected Final: Cowboys 19, Raiders 18. Our volatility index (from SBx/SPBx bounces) is ~3.00—one of the higher VI games of the week—so we keep sides smaller and lean hardest into totals.

Betting Guide

• Under 49.5 — TAKE (High)
  Model total 37.4 → ~12 points of cushion. Even with a high VI, both pairings point to stalled drives and FGs.

• Raiders +3.5 — TAKE (Medium)
  Model spreads DAL by ~0.8; grabbing the 3.5 gives room for the late-game swing we expect. (Price is a bit juiced; keep unit size reasonable.)

• Cowboys -3.5 — PASS (model doesn’t get to -3.5 with any comfort)

• Moneylines — PASS (DAL -190 too steep for a 1-point model edge; LV +153 live but tied to high volatility—sprinkle only if you want action)

Confidence note: Our revised conviction system centers on edge size first and uses VI to modulate stake. Here, the Under carries a High edge; the Raiders +3.5 edge is Medium because VI = high.

Additional Bets to Consider

1) Total Field Goals 3.5 (Over +100 / Under -127)

• TAKE: Over 3.5 (+100) — Medium. Low-TD, red-zone-sticky script → 4+ FGs is live, and you’re getting even money. (Correlates with both team FG overs below.)

2) Cowboys FGs 1.5 (Over -117 / Under -114)

• TAKE: Over 1.5 (-117) — Medium/High. DAL SBx vs LV SPBx points to stalled drives → 2+ attempts likely.

• Under -114: PASS.

3) Raiders FGs 1.5 (Over -103 / Under -130)

• TAKE: Over 1.5 (-103) — Medium. Near even money for 2+ FGs in a bend-don’t-break matchup.

• Under -130: PASS.

4) Longest FG 53.5 (Over -115 / Under -115)

• TAKE: Under 53.5 (-115) — Medium. Our edge is on attempts in the 46–52 range; 54+ is less common. The number is a bit rich for an Over.

• Over -115: PASS.

5) Anytime TD — Jeanty (DAL) -148, Williams (LV) -173

• PASS both (Low). Prices imply ~60–63% in a 38-point game—too steep. If you want exposure, consider smaller sprinkles live once GL usage shows, or look for plus-money alt TD options.

6) Team Totals — Cowboys 26.5 (-132/+102), Raiders 22.5 (-132/+102)

• TAKE: Cowboys Under 26.5 (-132) — High. Model 19 (≈ 7.5 below).

• TAKE: Raiders Under 22.5 (-132) — High. Model 18 (≈ 4.5 below).

• Overs at +102: PASS.

Become a paying subscriber of Pigeon Picks+ to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

A subscription gets you:

• • Game-Changing NFL Betting: Insights Backed by Behavior Science For EVERY Game
• • Exclusive Content
• • Proprietary Analytics and Rankings
• • So Much More!