UFL WEEK 10 Picks

Michigan vs. Birmingham

In the first of two previews of the Conference Championship round, Michigan takes on Birmingham. Birmingham is coming off of their first loss of the season, something we predicted last week.

If they lose two in a row, the matchup to key in on is the Michigan offense against that Stallion defense. Yes, the Stallions had a big bounce back performance against the Brahmas, but we predicted that because the Brahmas offense is not very good.

That performance is somewhat of an outlier, and even with it, they are still in a 25% week to week regression in score prevention behavior, at a time when the Michigan offense is in an 11% week to week growth in their scoring behavior. If Birmingham loses, this will be why. We predict Michigan wins 25-23, and we are taking them on the moneyline and with the points

San Antonio vs. St. Louis

The Second of the conference championship round previews is San Antonio vs. St. Louis. San Antonio’s defense gives them a chance to win any game they step onto the field to play, and is why we predicted they would in last week vs. Birmingham.

And it is their defense again that is the focal point of this game. The Battlehawks have been without AJ Mccarron for two weeks, and it shows. Wilkins threw three costly interceptions last week in a loss to Arlington. With the Battlehawks clinched, I have to imagine McCarron sits this one out as well.

With their offense regressing by 11% week over week, and the Brahmas defense holding steady at 1% growth, but with a ridiculous Score prevention behavior rate of holding opponents to just 0.431 points per minute, we like them to win 23-16, and we are taking them on the moneyline and with the points.

Arlington vs. DC

This is perhaps the most even matchup in terms of team scoring behavior at any moment in time for any two teams this season.

Both are expected to score 0.75 points per minute, with the slight edge to DC on defense with them expecting to hold Arlington to 0.65 points per minute, and Arlginton expected to hold DC to 0.7 points per minute.

It is a virtual tie, with a slight edge to DC, 21-20, and we are taking them on the moneyline.

Houston vs. Memphis

This is a game with the two worst defenses in the league. Both are expected to allow over 1 point per minute of opponent possession time, so it will be up to which offense can best take advantage of that opportunity.

Memphis seems to be the offense with that ability. Since Week 4 of this season, they have averaged a steady 0.75 points per minute of possession time, which is better than the 0.5 points that Houston averages.

We think this is a close came 24-23 in favor of Memphis who we are taking on the moneyline.

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