🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Seattle
The Seahawks might be the best team this season. Do they keep it moving against their NFC West rivals? They have the highest Total Team Behavior Score so far in 2025.

Steelers @ Chargers

• Chargers 26, Steelers 17

  • Los Angeles’ scoring behavior (SBx) has trended cleaner on early downs and more efficient in the low red zone, and it meets a Steelers prevention profile (SPBx) that forces long drives but has leaked finishing spurts when fields shorten. That’s the recipe for a classic “steady separation” script: the Chargers don’t need explosives to score; they need to stay on schedule and convert their 10–12 play series into 7s. On the time axis, the possession behaviors (BP vs. BPP) shape into roughly even TOP—about thirty minutes per side—so points per drive, not raw volume, becomes the hinge.
    

    Pittsburgh’s best counter is to compress the red zone (trade 7s for 3s) and manufacture a short field or two. If the Steelers’ SBx pops with an explosive or turnover-assisted drive, this can turn into a coin-flip late; absent that, the Chargers’ finishing baseline plus home field tilts it. Netting it out, the model’s center stays Chargers 26–17: LA finishes a bit better in the low red, while Pittsburgh moves the ball in pockets but stalls enough for the margin to hold.

• Betting Guide

  • Moneyline:

    • Steelers +125 — PASS. Implied ≈ 44.4%; our win probability is meaningfully lower given a ~9-point model edge to LAC.

    • Chargers −145 — TAKE (small–medium). Implied ≈ 59.2%; with a ~9-point edge, our fair win prob is closer to mid-60s+, giving positive expected value.

    Spread:

    • Chargers −2.5 (−120) — TAKE (small–medium). Our margin ~+9 comfortably clears a field goal; even with the heavier juice, this remains +EV relative to our number.

    • Steelers +2.5 (EVEN) — PASS. You’re taking <3 with an underdog we project to lose by multiple scores.

    Total (44.5)

    • Over −105 / Under −115 — LEAN UNDER (small). Model total ≈ 43. With a possession profile that’s more controlled than explosive, the most common path is chargers’ drives cashing 7s against occasional Steelers stalls. The number is close, so we keep it light—price gives a slight nod to Over, but our center leans Under.

    Steelers Team Total 21.5

    • Over −114 / Under −118 — TAKE UNDER (small–medium). Our Steelers point center is ~17. Even allowing for volatility, 22+ requires multiple sustained finishes or a short-field spike; the pricing (−118 ≈ 54.1% break-even) is reasonable versus our probability of them landing ≤21.

Eagles @ Packers

• Eagles 23, Packers 24

  • Based on our SBx↔SPBx and BP↔BPP Geometric Means workflow), the center lands at Packers 24, Eagles 23—a one-score game shaped more by finishing efficiency than by raw possession volume. Green Bay’s drive math has been steady enough to string 8–12 play series, and when their low-red zone sequencing holds (no negative first-downs, avoid penalties inside the 30), they cash routine 7s. Philadelphia’s counter is familiar: squeeze explosives, trade 7s for 3s, and create at least one short field to tilt a close script.
    

    Because the time-of-possession profiles are broadly balanced, the hinge is points per minute. The Packers’ SBx vs the Eagles’ SPBx has been slightly better than the inverse pairing; the Eagles still move the ball, but bog-down risk at the fringe of scoring range nudges their median toward ~23 without turnovers or deep shots. Netting it out, the matchup shape says tight margin, modestly lively scoring, not a runaway—hence GB 24–23 as the most likely landing.

• Betting Guide

  • Moneyline

    • Eagles −102 (implied ~50.5%) — PASS. Our center makes this a coin flip leaning GB; you’re paying near 50/50 for the dog side of our number.

    • Packers −118 (implied ~54.1%) — TAKE (small). With a model edge of ~+1 for GB at home, −118 is acceptable juice for the slightly better side in a close game.

    Spread

    • Eagles +1 (−110) — PASS. We’re not far enough from the number to justify paying standard juice.

    • Packers −1 (−109) — TAKE (small). Mirrors our GB +1 margin; in a near-pick, we’ll lay the point at modest juice with the model nod.

    Total 45.5

    • Over −114 / Under −106 — LEAN OVER (small). Our total center is ~47. Price isn’t ideal on the Over, so size it lightly; if you can find 45 −110, that’s better.

    Team Totals

    • Packers 23.5 (Over −115 / Under −117) — LEAN OVER (small). Our GB center is 24; thin edge, keep it modest.

    • Eagles 22.5 (Over −120 / Under −113) — LEAN OVER (tiny). We have ~23; the −120 price trims value—treat as a sprinkle or pass if you prefer stricter EV.

  • Sizing note: This is a thin-edge, volatility-sensitive game. Keep plays small (e.g., 0.5u Packers ML or −1; 0.25u Over 45.5; 0.25u GB TT Over 23.5).

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