UPDATED: NFL Analytics

September Recap 💰

Through the first calendar month of the NFL season, the Pigeon Picks+ model is 15 wins above .500 with a +10 unit profit and a 19+% ROI.

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Best Week 4 Bets

• Bucs and Vikes Moneylines

  • Both were underdogs that our Final Score Prediction model had winning outright

Bad Beats of Week 4

• Saints moneyline

  • Saints performed as we expected but succumbed to two extreme outlier events (defensive touchdowns) that they could not overcome

• Bills Moneyline

  • We had this as an easy win for Buffalo and they were thoroughly dismantled. They have a BIG chance to show us who they really are vs Houston this week

EXCLUSIVE: Week 5 NFL Analytics 📈

Behavioral Analytics you cannot get anywhere else.

Subscribers to our Free plan will see a “Top 5” for every offensive and defensive category inside of Margin For Error, Improvement Index, and Consistency Score, plus an overall “Top 10” for each.

Pigeon Picks+ subscribers will have the full ranking of all 32 teams in every category below.

1. Margin For Error

Margin For Error is our Power Rankings metric and measures how strong a team is abut measuring the differential between both sides of the ball, which indicates how resistant they are to outlier events (turnovers, defensive/ST scores, injuries, etc.)

_{Scoring Behavior and Score Prevention Behavior are measured in points scored or allowed per minute of possession time.} 

Top 5 Scoring Behavior Offenses

Surprises?

• Buffalo falls to 3 after being number 1

• Indianapolis remains in the top 5, with Joe Flacco helping keep them there

• Washington has transformed into a power house in recent weeks

Top 5 Score Prevention Defenses

Surprises?

• Minnesota is the only team to be in the top 5 for both

• Defense is again saving the Jets and Steelers

• Denver may stay competitive

• If any of these teams maintain this, it would go down as the best defensive season in history

Top 10 Power Rankings (Margin For Error)

Surprises?

• Chargers, Jets, Steelers all in the top 10

  • As long as their defenses remain as dominant as they have been, maybe they don’t need offense?

• Chiefs hanging around

• Huge Gap between #1 and #2, and #5 and #6

  • Vikings are the only team with a top 5 scoring offense and a top 5 score prevention defense

2. Improvement Index

The Improvement Index is a measure of week to week momentum. It is measured through celeration charting on a semi-logarithmic chart. We measure both offensive improvement/regression and defensive improvement/regression in scoring or allowing points.

We also measure overall team improvement week to week by assessing the number on both sides of the ball for each team. Many of these rates are UNSUSTAINABLE, but could be the difference in how teams set themselves up for the rest of the season. Look for these to level out over time.

Top 5 Improving Offenses

Surprises?

• Cannot overstate the difference in Carolina since the QB change

• Saints rebounded nicely from the Eagles loss, but couldn’t overcome TWO defensive scores in Week 4

• Lions may have gotten back on track with BIG game vs Seattle

Top 5 Improving Defenses

Surprises?

• Jets and Broncos defense continues to keep them afloat

• Raiders stay hot despite Crosby absence

• Chiefs defense continues to be a strength of the team

Top 10 IMPROVED Teams Overall

Surprises?

• Ravens looking to reclaim title of Super Bowl contender

• Saints staying in the conversation

• Panthers looking to leave the basement

• Giants looking for stability

3. Consistency Score

This measured through something called the “Bounce rate”, which measures the…bounciness of a team’s data via multiplier of likelihood their NEXT performance will fall within the current range they are trending towards.

The bigger the number, the LESS predictable a team is and the more varied their performances are.

Top 5 MOST Consistent Offenses

Surprises?

• Vikings consistently great, Chargers consistently not

• Chiefs are nothing but consistent

• Seahawks beginning to prove this early season success not a fluke

Top 5 MOST Consistent Defenses

Surprises?

• Saints defense holding steady as offense shows signs of staying power

• Dolphins at least have some(?) good news?

Top 10 MOST Consistent Teams Overall

Surprises?

• Bears and Browns have been our most successful teams to bet on

• Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals remind why they’re always in the hunt

• Titans are very consistent…ly bad.

• Commanders showing they may have staying power 25% of the way through the season

4. FULL 32 Team Rankings

Power Rankings, Improvement Index, and Consistency Scores for ALL 32 teams

Week 5 Power Rankings

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