UFL Championship Game Prediction

Brahmas Pull Off The Upset

🎥: UFL CHAMPIONSHIP FORECAST

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The Breakdown

The top two teams in Total Team Behavior Score will face off in the UFL Championship game when the San Antonio Brahmas Face Off against the Birmingham Stallions.

This game is intriguing for a number of reasons. For 1, the Stallions have suffered just one loss this season, and that was to the Brahmas back in Week 9, something we predicted then would happen…

On top of that, we predicted that the Stallions would lose last week to the Panthers, and they were down 18-3  at half time. But then they made a QB switch from UFL MVP Martinez to Mat Corral, and we all know how that game ended…So is Corrall going to be the starter for the Stallions Sunday? NO. It will be Martinez.

Braham’s Offense Stabilized?

As for the Brahmas, they have finally got Garbers back as the starter and that is a good thing. Not only have three of their top 4 scoring performances come with him as the starter, but when they beat the Stallioins he came in relief of Dormady and led that upset effort.

In fact, the orange lines on this chart show us that the Brahmas see a 35% drop in scoring behavior when Dormady starts compared to Garbers starts. Garbers being in the lineup is a huge environmental factor in the Brahmas ability to put up points.

The big factor for them to pull of an upset for what should be the fourth consecutive week is time of possession. Yes, they score more with Garbers, but they still aren’t a juggernaut offense. And an offense can’t score if they don’t have the ball.

Time Of Possession Matters

This is a key matchup to watch, as this chart shows that the Stallions defense is allowing 14% more time of possession to their opponents week over week, just as the Brahmas are gaining 7% more time of possession week over week.

With Garbers as the starter and the behavioral trends of the offense and the Brahmas defense not only being consistently dominant, but factoring in that they held this exact team to just 9 points a few weeks before, all of the behavioral indicators tell us an upset is in the making.

We Like The Upset

The Brahmas are number 1 in Margin for Error score and Total Team Behavior Score. We believe they are the best overall team in the UFL at this point in the season. If Garbers had started all year, this may not seem like a hot take. But alas…

Our Final Score Forecast for the UFL Championship game is a Brahmas victory 22-17.

We will take them to cover the 3.5 points and on the moneyline at +150.