Ranking The Top NFL Defenses

The number one job of any defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. It is that simple.

With Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx), we are able to determine which NFL defenses are best at forcing opposing offenses into inefficient production when they have the ball.

Either the defense is proficient at getting the ball back to their own offense quickly, and/or, they are proficient at forcing long possessions that end in little to no points. Either one of those is a positive.

To see how each and every defense, each and every week, is improving or regressing in SPBx, make sure to upgrade to a Pigeon Picks subscription for that plus:

Top 5 NFL Defenses In Score Prevention Behavior

For reference, SPBx Rate is measured in points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. Below are the top five defenses in this measurement, provided with context around the influence of outliers and how likely they are to have a similar performance in 2023.

5. New York Jets

2022 SPBx Rate: 0.554

Behavioral Context:

• The Jets defense was truly elite in 2022.

  • They gave up less than 0.6 points per minute of opponent possession time in 11 games.

  • They got better as the season went along, giving up less points at a rate of ~10% week over week.

  • They held opposing offenses to under 0.4 points per minute of opponent possession time in five games.

• Likely to have a similar performance in 2023.

4. Buffalo Bills

2022 SPBx Rate: 0.544

Behavioral Context:

• Overall, SPBx Rate was helped by a massive outlier from their 10/9/2022 game against the Steelers.

  • Removing that outlier, their 0.607 SPBx Rate would have ranked them just outside of the top 10.

• They were probably overrated as a unit in 2022 and are likely not going to repeat this performance in 2023.

  • They got worse as the season went along, giving more points at a 24% rate week over week.

• They performed substantially worse following their bye week.

  • Prior to the bye week, the Bills defense had an SPBx Rate of 0.361.

  • Following the bye week, it was 85% worse at 0.667.

• Their bounce rate of x3.6 made them the 6th most inconsistent defense in 2022.

3. New Orleans Saints

2022 SPBx Rate: 0.532 

Behavioral Context:

• The Saints started out the season getting worse every week through 10/23/2022.

  • They were yielding a .899 SPBx through those seven games.

  • Week over week through those seven games, they were giving up a higher SPBx at a 60% rate.

• On 10/30/2022, they shutout the Las Vegas Raiders and the defense went on a remarkable turnaround.

  • They yielded a 0.368 SPBx through the remaining 10 games.

  • That is 59% performance improvement from the seven games prior to the 10/30/2022 shutout.

• Likely to have a similar performance in 2023.

2. San Francisco 49ers

2022 SPBx Rate: 0.467

Behavioral Context:

• League-leading seven games where opponents scored under 0.5 points per minute of opponent possession time.

• They were trending in the wrong direction heading into the bye week.

  • Week over week prior to the bye week, they were giving up more points per minute of opponent possession time at a rate of 85%.

  • After the bye week, that dropped to only 17%.

• Gave up 20 points or fewer in eight out of 10 games to close the season following the bye week.

• Likely to have a similar performance in 2023.

1. New England Patriots

2022 SPBx Rate: 0.464

Behavioral Context:

• Their SPBx was largely helped by three games where they gave up three points or less.

  • Without those three games, they would have an SPBx of 0.718, which would have ranked 24th in 2022.

  • Two of those three games were against the two worst SBx NFL offenses in 2022.

• Unlikely to have a similar performance in 2023.

Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings:

• 60% of the top 10 teams in SPBx Rate reached the NFL playoffs.

• 67% of those teams made it to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

• One of those teams made it to the Super Bowl.

• The top 10 teams in SPBx combined for a 60% winning percentage.

Reminder, this is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list below, make sure you upgrade and subscribe to Pigeon Picks!

What Does It All Mean?

Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx) is a way to measure how efficient an NFL defense is at preventing their opponent from scoring in the finite opportunities that they are actually on the field. In other words, which defenses are making the most of their limited opportunities?

Many factors impact the SPBx score a team has over the entirety of an NFL season. Many teams will have outliers. A week where they simply perform in a way that is out of character and not representative of their true behavior pattern. This is not so different from all humans as individuals. Sometimes, we just have a bad day.

The key is to identify those outliers and assess them accordingly as to how they fit into overall team performance. In some cases, the raw number can be misleading. A team that finishes with the best score is not necessarily the best bet for predictive performance. Look no further than New England. The data must be looked at in whole.

Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

• How likely a team is to continue a certain trend

• How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head

• How a trend could impact the point spread

• How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Pigeon Picks had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)

Full 32 Team Rankings:

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