🏈The Trend We’re Watching: Volatility
The Patriots have been among the most consistent teams in the NFL, especially on offense. The Jets have been extremely volatile, especially on defense. Which Jets team will show up.

The Trends Matchups For Each Side of The Ball

• Patriots offensive stability vs. Jets defensive volatility

• Time of Possession stability on both sides

• How this leads to a 25-16 Patriots Victory

Narrative Analysis

This profiles as a control game for New England. The Patriots’ finishing is comparatively stable (SBx bounce ×2.1) and pairs with a Jets prevention that’s highly volatile (SPBx ×3.1). On the time axis, both teams are stable-to-moderate (Pats BP/BPP ×1.5/×1.5, Jets ×1.6/×1.5), so we expect normal drive volume; the hinge becomes points per drive where New England’s steadier SBx has the repeatable edge. That’s how we land on a center near Patriots ~25, Jets ~16.

Translating bounce rates to 90% confidence envelopes (finish weighted 0.7, time 0.3), we get approximate team ranges of Patriots having a 90% chance to score between ~11 and 54 points based on the Jets extreme volatility on defense. (70% band: 15–40) and Jets with a much smaller range of ~7–33 (70%: 10–25).

You can see that the Jets defensive volatility expands the possibilities for the Pats, while the Pats consistency narrows the pathways for the Jets.

In English: tempo should look normal, but how drives cash in for each team is swingiest on the Jets’ side (SBx bounce rate of ×3.0). That mix typically favors Patriots side / Unders / Pats TT Unders over precision margin bands or high-alt overs.

Netting it out, the model’s shape matches our “most likely outcome” projection: Patriots 25, Jets 16.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Patriots vs. Jets

Here’s a quick Pass/Take card using our model (NE 25–16, control pace script), SBx/SPBx edges, and each bet’s break-even (BE):

• Moneyline

  • Jets +575 — TAKE (tiny sprinkle only). Break-even ≈ 14.8%; with our Pats win prob ~75%, the Jets win ~25%—enough to justify a small price-driven flier.

  • Patriots −950 — PASS. Implied 90.5% is rich versus our win prob; negative EV.

  Spread

  • Patriots −13 (−110) — PASS. Our mean margin ≈ +9; covering two full scores isn’t priced well given Jets’ defensive volatility.

  • Jets +13 (−109) — TAKE (small–medium). BE ≈ 52.2%; we make the Jets stay within 13 a bit more often than that with stable TOP (fewer tempo shocks) and late backdoor paths.

  Total 43 (−107/−112)

  • UNDER 43 (−112) — TAKE (small–medium). Model total ≈ 40; stable possession + Pats’ steadier prevention (SPBx ×1.9) supports the Under.

  • OVER 43 (−107) — PASS. Better price, but it fights our center and the script.

  Team Totals

  • Patriots 28.5 (Over −110 / Under −122) — TAKE UNDER (small–medium). Our Pats center ~24–25; 29+ needs multiple high-leverage conversions.

  • Jets 15.5 (Over −107 / Under −125) — PASS. Our Jets center ~15.5 sits right on the number; with SBx ×3.0, tails exist both ways—no clean edge at these prices.

  Sizing note: Keep exposure modest. For example: 0.5u Jets +13, 0.5u Under 43, 0.4u Pats TT Under 28.5, and 0.1u Jets ML +575 (price flier).

Total Team Behavior Score (TTBS) (1–32)

This is our measure of who the most complete teams in the NFL are through 11 weeks. This score encompasses everything from scoring prowess, to top prevention defenses, week to week momentum on each side of the ball, and finally consistency week to week. Here is how it gets calculated.

In 2024, all 10 of the top 10 teams in this score reached the postseason, and 13 of the top 14 did as well. Here’s where we stand this week:

1. Seattle — 36.5232

2. Baltimore — 35.7833

3. Kansas City — 33.1307

4. Los Angeles R — 33.0002

5. Indianapolis — 31.3702

6. New England — 29.9798

7. Pittsburgh — 27.0734

8. Green Bay — 27.0726

9. Los Angeles C — 25.7854

10. San Francisco — 24.9682

11. Arizona — 24.6478

12. Detroit — 21.8773

13. Denver — 21.6814

14. Philadelphia — 21.6729

15. Minnesota — 21.2622

16. Buffalo — 20.6410

17. New York G — 20.5934

18. Houston — 20.3699

19. New Orleans — 19.9279

20. Atlanta — 19.2737

21. Chicago — 17.8267

22. Tampa Bay — 17.4185

23. Washington — 15.7105

24. Dallas — 14.8886

25. Cleveland — 14.0719

26. Miami — 13.1417

27. Jacksonville — 12.9411

28. Carolina — 10.7691

29. New York J — 9.5353

30. Cincinnati — 9.3109

31. Las Vegas — 9.2253

32. Tennessee — −0.0427

Margin For Error Score (1–32)

Margin For Error Score serves as our version of Power Rankings. It isn’t necessarily a ranking of the best overall teams, but is a snapshot at which teams have the highest margin for error given how many points they score per minute vs. how much they allow.

The bigger that gap, the more resiliency that they have. For more on Margin For Error Score and how we calculate it, check here.

1. Indianapolis — 89.6

2. Seattle — 85.7

3. Los Angeles R — 80.8

4. Baltimore — 80.2

5. Denver — 74.8

6. Kansas City — 72.6

7. Pittsburgh — 66.5

8. Detroit — 65.4

9. Green Bay — 62.5

10. New England — 59.7

11. Los Angeles C — 57.4

12. Buffalo — 52.8

13. Philadelphia — 51.8

14. Minnesota — 51.3

15. San Francisco — 51.2

16. Atlanta — 49.2

17. Washington — 46.2

18. Houston — 45.9

19. Arizona — 45.7

20. Chicago — 43.4

21. New Orleans — 42.3

22. New York G — 41.1

23. Tampa Bay — 39.2

24. Dallas — 38.2

25. Cleveland — 38.2

26. Miami — 37.9

27. Jacksonville — 34.1

28. Las Vegas — 33.1

29. Carolina — 31.7

30. New York J — 29.0

31. Cincinnati — 28.3

32. Tennessee — 0.3