🏈The Trend We’re Watching: NFC West Champs?
The winner of this matchup may not only take the division, but also the conference. And we get a Best on Best matchup behaviorally, of a Rams offense that ranks 1st in Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) and is getting better week over week by 19%, going up against a Seahawks defense that ranks 1st in Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx) and is getting better week to week by 4%.

Who will pull it out?

Behavior Analysis

• Rams offense (SBx) vs Seahawks defense (SPBx).
  The Rams’ SBx Level has tracked in that “upper-middle” tier all season, and the Celeration line has held near-flat to slightly up—meaning production per minute has been steady rather than spike-driven. Seattle’s SPBx Level is good, but their Bounce is a touch wider than LAR’s SBx, implying some red-zone bend. In a tight environment game, a steadier SBx usually cashes enough sustained drives into 3s/7s; that matches our 24 for LAR.
  

• Seahawks offense (SBx) vs Rams defense (SPBx).
  Seattle’s SBx Level is solid, but their Celeration has cooled from its early-season pace. The Rams’ SPBx Level + modest Bounce creates a “bend-don’t-break” profile: they concede yards at times but shorten throws in the low red area. That’s a classic field-goal magnet and aligns with our 22 for SEA (slightly under the league scoring band for two good teams).
  

• Time of possession (BPB vs BPPB, both directions).
  The Rams’ Ball Possession Behavior (BPB) has stabilized (low/moderate Bounce), while Seattle’s Ball Possession Prevention (BPPB) is strong but not hyper-volatile. Flip it, and Seattle’s BPB vs LAR’s BPPB looks roughly neutral. Net effect: no runaway TOP edge either way, but the Rams’ steadier drive efficiency (SBx Celeration ~flat/+ and narrower Bounce) gives them the extra late possession/score our projection leans on.
  

• Volatility & range.
  Bounce checks push this toward a close, possession-trading script rather than a shootout or blowout. With both teams 11-3 and profiles that compress in the red zone, we expect 4–6 total TDs with multiple FG attempts—exactly the kind of texture that lands in the low-to-mid 40s and favors the slightly steadier unit.

Behavioral Betting Recommendations — Rams @ Seahawks

Moneyline

• Rams +100 — TAKE (small). Model makes LAR a slim fave; even money is fair value.

• Seahawks -120 — PASS. Priced as a fave while our number sees them as a slight dog.

Spread (SEA -1.5 / LAR +1.5)

• Rams +1.5 (-112) — TAKE. We make it LAR -2; you’re getting ~3.5 pts of cushion.

• Seahawks -1.5 (-108) — PASS.

Total (42.5, -117/-104)

• OVER 42.5 — TAKE (price-sensitive). Model 46 ⇒ ~3.5 pts edge; prefer the cheaper side (-104). If you only have -117, keep to a half-unit.

Team totals

• Rams 20.5 (−114/−117) — TAKE Over. Model 24 gives meaningful headroom.

• Seahawks 21.5 (−120/−112) — LEAN Over. Model 22 clears it, but juice is heavier—size down.

Field goals

• Game FG O/U 3.5 (−107/−120) — TAKE Over. Both defenses tighten inside the 25 and the script is close → sustained drives + red-zone stalls. We prefer the cheaper side (−107).

Winning margin props

• Rams by 1–6 (+280) — TAKE (sprinkle). Fits our 1-score center and volatility band.

• Rams by <13 (+147) — LEAN. Correlated with our read but less payout; use only if you want a broader cover.