Thursday Night Football Recap

The Week 2 Thursday Night Football Prediction is in the books. The Pigeon Picks model went a perfect 5 for 5, and made those who tailed a profit.

As for the game itself, it went almost as expected. Both teams scored at a rate we thought they might. What we didn’t account for were the extra possessions. Let’s get into it!

How’d We Do?

First, The Money

Eagles ML ✅

Vikings +7 ✅

UNDER Hurts Passing Yards ✅

OVER Cousins Passing Yards ✅

Eagles Win by 1-6 Points ✅

Week 2 TNF Prediction Record

5-0 🟢

Week 2 TNF Prediction ROI

+69.2%💰

To get results like this for EVERY game all season long, make sure you upgrade your subscription to the Pigeon Picks Model if you haven’t already!

Projected Score

Eagles 24 | Vikings 21

Actual Score

Eagles 34 | Vikings 28

What happened?

Why were we 10 points off on the Eagles projected score?

Simple: outlier events. The Pigeon Picks model looks purely at scoring behavior and makes assessments as to projected time of possession needed to achieve that score. However, on the pathway to the end result (a projected Eagles win), individual events can alter the pathway, yet still lead us to the inevitable outcome.

What the model did not account for was four lost fumbles by the Vikings. And why would it? The last time a team lost four fumbles in a game Was the 1992 Detroit Lions. But those four extra possessions for the Eagles mattered.

• The Eagles scored 34 points despite having the ball for over 39 (!) minutes.

• The Eagles were only able to turn two of those turnovers into points on offense.

• The difference in our projected score and their actual score was 10 points.

  • The two extra possessions they turned into points led to…10 points.

So then why were we 7 points off on the Vikings projected score?

The outlier events that gifted the Eagles four extra possession also, as mentioned above, altered the game flow. Those extra possessions helped the eagles jump out to a 27-7 lead just a few minutes into the third quarter.

This prompted the Vikings to change their behavioral approach and increase their pace. We projected them at 21 points, but being down 27-7 with almost a full half still to play changed their expected behavior.

That said, individual outlier events that favor the favorite, simply alter the pathway to the inevitable, rather than change it.

• We projected the Vikings to have an SBx of 0.8 points per minute of possession time.

  • They nearly doubled that at 1.4 points per minute of possession time.

What Does It Mean?

Well, despite the outlier events, our suspicions about the behavioral profiles of these teams for 2023 are solidifying.

• The Eagles offense is in regression, and has needed defensive assistance in both games to score enough points to win.

  • The Patriots offense outscored them 20-18, Week 1

  • Turnovers forced by the defense leading to short fields led to an extra 10 points, without which they would have been outscored 28-24

• The Eagles defense is overrated and had their worst performance in 2 years.

  • Last year the Eagles yielded an SPBx of over 1 point per minute of possession time 5 times. Most in the NFL.

  • Their SPBx of 1.4 is higher than any game last season.

• The Vikings offense is legit.

  • Their 1.4 SBx is their second highest of the last two seasons.

  • Ranked in the top 10 in SBx for 2022

  • Have had 7 turnovers, 6 of them lost fumbles. The offense could bee even more potent once regresses to the mean.

• The Vikings defense is a work in progress, but definitely improved

  • Forced to defend four extra possession and still held Philly under 1 point per minute of possession time

  • If you remove the outlier two possessions that Philly converted into 10 points, in just over a minute of possession time combined, the SPBx drops to just over 0.6 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, which is better than what they held Tampa to in Week 1

What’s Next For Subscribers?

• For everybody: Week 2 Sunday Night Football Prediction

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If you haven’t already, upgrade your subscription to the Pigeon Picks model so you don’t miss out! Through Week 2 of Thursday Night Football we are already up to a +35.5% ROI! Can pay for itself in one week!